[Football] When will the Premier League play in fromnt of full houses again?

[Bry Nylon]

I believe personal choice / willingness to accept risk will have little to do with it. The football season starts late summer / early autumn and I reckon the govnt will be loathe to give the green light to weekly gatherings of 30-70k through the autumn / winter months until there is clear data on how the vaccine / virus is performing. That’s why I think it will be next spring at the earliest that full PL houses are back. Hope I’m wrong.

 

[nwgull]

I think you are under estimating the fear out there still.

Large numbers are happy to stay locked up all year.

No one will be stopping those still in fear from staying away and from continuing to take personal precautions. I reckon that the vast majority would rather live their lives and rationalise that there's probably as much, if not more, chance of them dying from something else by the time the vaccine has been fully implemented.

The government will want to open up the economy as soon as possible. That includes sport, and many professional clubs will go under if crowds are not back for most of next season.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

No one will be stopping those still in fear from staying away and from continuing to take personal precautions. I reckon that the vast majority would rather live their lives and rationalise that there's probably as much, if not more, chance of them dying from something else by the time the vaccine has been fully implemented.

The government will want to open up the economy as soon as possible. That includes sport, and many professional clubs will go under if crowds are not back for most of next season.

I dont disagree with you on the personal choice point, But Sage want to keep some stuff locked up till 2022 and there is still a large number of them that have the media's ear as well as the zero covid pushers independent sage.

There is Zero chance the gov will go completely against those groups all the time they are in the media, clubs and jobs will just be more collateral damage.

Some of the above mentioned groups are already twisting the news on the vaccine as a reason to stay locked up till the booster jab.

 

[GT49er]

Kids absolutely DO get ill from it, but in much smaller number, fortunately.

I wasn't saying that proof of vaccination would be required, nor that the Albion would validate that. I was countering the suggestion from those I quoted that proof of vaccination would be a mechanism used for football attendance and, by implication, other social activities.

I just don't see that as practical, nor fitting with the current government's generally libertarian stance.

Needn't be anything to do with the government. We don't have identity cards by law in this country - but the number of things we can't do without photo ID grows day by day, all requirements imposed by commercial organisations. Perfectly easy for public venues, for example, to say no admission without proof of vaccination.

 

[crodonilson]

I think it's widely accepted that some restrictions will need to remain in place through into 2022 particularly as previously mentioned with a nervousness over next Autumn/Winter when respiratory viruses thrive and many more mutations likely to be around. If we have a good winter next year and come out of it in good shape I think we will see the potential for full crowds in late spring 2022, until then at best I see reduced capacities over the summer at sporting events where distancing is slightly easier, horse racing/cricket and then some trials through.pre-season at 20% capacities.

 

[nwgull]

I dont disagree with you on the personal choice point, But Sage want to keep some stuff locked up till 2022 and there is still a large number of them that have the media's ear as well as the zero covid pushers independent sage.

There is Zero chance the gov will go completely against those groups all the time they are in the media, clubs and jobs will just be more collateral damage.

Some of the above mentioned groups are already twisting the news on the vaccine as a reason to stay locked up till the booster jab.

Their track record of cautious restrictions and following SAGE advice suggests otherwise.

Pointless arguing about it for now though. We can revisit this thread in 4-5 months time and see what the outcome is. My money would be on the bloke suggesting that gatherings are banned for several year being wide of the mark.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Their track record of cautious restrictions and following SAGE advice suggests otherwise.

Pointless arguing about it for now though. We can revisit this thread in 4-5 months time and see what the outcome is. My money would be on the bloke suggesting that gatherings are banned for several year being wide of the mark.

I Hope I am wrong and you are correct.

 

[Sorrel]

Some crowds, fairly soon - within four months.

But full houses? I suspect there will be reluctance to allow this at the start of the season and then with Winter approaching I suspect that the precautionary principle will apply.

Therefore I would vote for Spring 2022, hopefully.

 

[Cowfold Seagull]

The only truth in all this, is quite simply that none of us know. It's impossible to know what the future will hold.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Some crowds, fairly soon - within four months.

But full houses? I suspect there will be reluctance to allow this at the start of the season and then with Winter approaching I suspect that the precautionary principle will apply.

Therefore I would vote for Spring 2022, hopefully.

Spring 2022, and that counts as being hopeful? My idea of hopeful would be back end of this season, though that would probably be too hopeful. But if it isn't September this year, then it means that vaccine hasn't worked like we hope it will, or some new super-variant has driven us back into lockdown for the next few months or years, or else the nervous nellies in government have got their way. If we're being hopeful, it has to be in less than a year. More than a year is deeply pessimistic.

I'm not saying you're wrong about the date, I'm just saying that you're wrong about being hopeful!

 

[Spicy]

I virtually never start threads, so please be gentle with me.



Had a heated disagreement with my son today over when we can expect full houses at football again

So what chance do you think premier league football will be played in front of packed crowd again at this dates

1. start of next season?
2. january 1st 2022?
3. start of 22/23?


My guesses

1. 10%
2. 25%
3. 90%

Sometimes it feels like we will never get back to normal. I've agreed with you and gone for start of 22/23 season.

 

[Spicy]

I had a stroke a couple of months ago and my typing has gone to shite as I can barely use my left hand any more.

Apologies.

No need to apologise to anyone. Some people think it's clever to point out mistakes but in fact it just makes them look like an arse.

 

[Husty]

I can't see restrictions like this continuing for much longer after all adults in the UK have been fully (2 doses) vaccinated. There'll be a residual risk, but it's very low: 5% of catching it and then a very low risk of a vaccinated person who catches having to be hospitalised - and that doesn't even account for the fact that the vaccine has been shown to significantly hinder transmission. That's not going to put the NHS under any strain, and people will be prepared to accept the risk to be able to live their lives in the same way that we accept the risk that travelling in a car every day presents.

There's a high chance of a vaccine resistant strain developing & being dominant by next winter. The question in my mind isn't how fast can we vaccinate the nation its how quickly can we then re-vaccinate the nation?

 

[crodonilson]

There's a high chance of a vaccine resistant strain developing & being dominant by next winter. The question in my mind isn't how fast can we vaccinate the nation its how quickly can we then re-vaccinate the nation?

I think they have said if this happens the good news is they will likely only need to give everyone one booster jab but supply will be an issue again and even at 500k vaccinations a day it would take 16 weeks to vaccinate everyone again so we would probably have to go into lockdown again in November through until the end of February to save lives and help the NHS.

 

[Bry Nylon]

There's a high chance of a vaccine resistant strain developing & being dominant by next winter. The question in my mind isn't how fast can we vaccinate the nation its how quickly can we then re-vaccinate the nation?

Yes - this seems to be the key. The developers of the Oxford vaccine have intimated today that their vaccine doesn’t appear to offer protection against the South African strain of Covid and they hope to have a modified vaccine that does in the autumn. Then I guess people will need to be vaccinated again?

 

[Sleaford Seagull]

There's a high chance of a vaccine resistant strain developing & being dominant by next winter. The question in my mind isn't how fast can we vaccinate the nation its how quickly can we then re-vaccinate the nation?

Is there any evidence this is the case though? I've not seen any genuine research that suggests this.
Isn't it just like the news that the AZ/Oxford vaccine isn't as effective against the SA variant. In reality the sample size for this is tiny and there's no real proof it isn't still effective.

The way the vaccination program is ramping up I can completely see 90%+ of the population being fully vaccinated by July and full crowds being back to normal by August.

I may be wrong and maybe I'm being overly optimistic but the vaccine is there to reduce hospitalisations and deaths, by August this should have happened dramatically.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

 

[Bry Nylon]

The way the vaccination program is ramping up I can completely see 90%+ of the population being fully vaccinated by July and full crowds being back to normal by August

You may be right but I’d be amazed if the government go as quickly as this. I expect them to tread far more cautiously as they analyse the effectiveness of the vaccination programme. Can’t see us going from nothing to 100% by August with autumn and winter looming.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I think they have said if this happens the good news is they will likely only need to give everyone one booster jab but supply will be an issue again and even at 500k vaccinations a day it would take 16 weeks to vaccinate everyone again so we would probably have to go into lockdown again in November through until the end of February to save lives and help the NHS.

Good luck with getting people into another lockdown once this one is lifted fully.

 

[Sorrel]

Spring 2022, and that counts as being hopeful? My idea of hopeful would be back end of this season, though that would probably be too hopeful. But if it isn't September this year, then it means that vaccine hasn't worked like we hope it will, or some new super-variant has driven us back into lockdown for the next few months or years, or else the nervous nellies in government have got their way. If we're being hopeful, it has to be in less than a year. More than a year is deeply pessimistic.

I'm not saying you're wrong about the date, I'm just saying that you're wrong about being hopeful!

Well, to be a bit more hopefully - I was thinking about FULL grounds. I think we can probably get at least half if not 3/4 full grounds before that.

 

[Husty]

Is there any evidence this is the case though? I've not seen any genuine research that suggests this.
Isn't it just like the news that the AZ/Oxford vaccine isn't as effective against the SA variant. In reality the sample size for this is tiny and there's no real proof it isn't still effective.

The way the vaccination program is ramping up I can completely see 90%+ of the population being fully vaccinated by July and full crowds being back to normal by August.

I may be wrong and maybe I'm being overly optimistic but the vaccine is there to reduce hospitalisations and deaths, by August this should have happened dramatically.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

Well, there are vaccine resistant strains developing independently in Bristol & Liverpool right now - that's just in this country! There are also vaccine resistant strains that are dominant in South Africa and in Brazil...

We're doing brilliantly in this country at inoculating people but that won't be a whole lot of use if someone can bring in a vaccine resistant strain with them from some overseas travel, to a country/region where the vaccine rollout is slow, giving the virus ample opportunities to evolve necessary mutations to become resistant. Even if you were to ban foreign holidays, there would still be all the lorry drivers going through Dover e.t.c. and if we have no restrictions at all in this country then the sad truth is it only takes one asymptomatic lorry driver going to and from the continent and a few months later we could be back to March 2020 levels of transmission.

That's why I agree with the WHO that fighting Covid is a global issue. To my mind the current vaccine drive will give US a relatively carefree summer, and less-harsh & shorter lockdown next winter but true normality is still some ways off - either a true breakthrough in treatment such that we just let the virus run free or it may be that the spike protein of the virus is not tolerant to mutations and only 1 or 2 vaccine resistant strains ever develop which we're then able to inoculate against, too early to tell whether that is true though.

Not that it counts for much but my opinion is are based upon having a degree in genetics & having studied viruses a fair bit on the way to that.