[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - the staying up tracker - season 2019-2020 Game 38 UPDATE

[Weststander]

This tracker usually becomes less useful (or totals need adjusting) as the season enters the final third, as the survival total is set too high.
We've also got Arsenal and United at home coming up, for which the tracker predicts zero points but, over the past two seasons, we've picked up an average of five points out of six from them.

Plus, will our rivals also keep failing to win, giving a ridiculously low 17th/18th points cut off in May?

Have they got 6 pointers left?

 

[Machiavelli]

Plus, will our rivals also keep failing to win, giving a ridiculously low 17th/18th points cut off in May?

Have they got 6 pointers left?

'Muff's run-in is horrible. Watford's isn't too clever either. West Ham have got a bad run of fixtures, but they've got games that they can win towards the end of the season. And, delightfully, looks like Villa's is the worst of the lot.

For a while I've been of the view that survival total would be 38. That now looks too high, and it might explain why are survival odds look more optimistic than our assessments.

 

[Weststander]

'Muff's run-in is horrible. Watford's isn't too clever either. West Ham have got a bad run of fixtures, but they've got games that they can win towards the end of the season. And, delightfully, looks like Villa's is the worst of the lot.

For a while I've been of the view that survival total would be 38. That now looks too high, and it might explain why are survival odds look more optimistic than our assessments.

I don’t think we’re out of it by any stretch of the imagination. Subjectively:

Beat CP - 80% chance of survival.
Draw - 50%
Lose - 33%

The gloomy latter two because, as the weeks roll into multiple months without a PL win, that’s simply a relegation club. Some rivals will win their winnable matches.

This fixture is huge for us.

Hodgson and Zaha would love to send us down.

 

[zefarelly]

Indeed, the 40 point target for the tracker builds in a small buffer, as a lower total will most likely be needed this season. Perhaps 37 or less, so -3 currently isn't over worrysome really.

If thinking that keeps you happy, good for you. But if we're an 'aspirational club' It aint good enough.

After last season I'm trying to give up giving a ****, as its way beyond my, or any of our control. less stress,= better life.

38 may well be enough, but who knows, would you bet on that risk?

 

[spence]

I don’t think we’re out of it by any stretch of the imagination. Subjectively:

Beat CP - 80% chance of survival.
Draw - 50%
Lose - 33%

The gloomy latter two because, as the weeks roll into multiple months without a PL win, that’s simply a relegation club. Some rivals will win their winnable matches.

This fixture is huge for us.

Hodgson and Zaha would love to send us down.

I actually think we will beat Palace. Just have a good feeling. I thought the players really battled hard the other day. It wasn't pretty but the effort from them was evident.

 

[Weststander]

I actually think we will beat Palace. Just have a good feeling. I thought the players really battled hard the other day. It wasn't pretty but the effort from them was evident.

In my mind’s eye, I make this:
50% win
25% draw
25% loss

I hope we produce our usual PL performance against them. West Ham and CP must be sick of the sight of us.

A win, for many reasons, would make me pretty confident of us staying up.

 

[spence]

In my mind’s eye, I make this:
50% win
25% draw
25% loss

I hope we produce our usual PL performance against them. West Ham and CP must be sick of the sight of us.

A win, for many reasons, would make me pretty confident of us staying up.

Not often i feel optinistc about BHA but i'm going

70% win
20% draw
10% loss

 

[sparkie]

If thinking that keeps you happy, good for you. But if we're an 'aspirational club' It aint good enough.

After last season I'm trying to give up giving a ****, as its way beyond my, or any of our control. less stress,= better life.

38 may well be enough, but who knows, would you bet on that risk?

Of course it isn't good enough ! But we are where we are...

I'm not betting on anything... far too many matches in the predictor apps to go... I couldn't even predict all the results of just the last day of the season, let alone every round.

 

[lawros left foot]

It has to be said, our goal difference is worth another point.

 

[saafend_seagull]

38 enough if we don’t get battered in any games.

We have to beat Norwich palarse and Newcastle basically.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

We have to beat Norwich palarse and Newcastle basically.

Very big ask to beat all three

 

[Acker79]

With nothing else to do on a cold and wet Sunday I've analysed the run in for us v the other teams using the exact same basis as the concept of this thread.

Results show us staying up, but it's tight (only one point), and so dependent on the games between all these teams. Also think whether the supposed top six turn up as they are predicted to do or rest players for European matches will have a massive bearing on who gets relegated.

That is a depressing run of last twelve results for us. Only two wins in twelve games, following a run of 1 win in 12 games (a period in which your tracker predicted 4 wins).

So one of the two wins your tracker predicted we get has turned out to be a loss. Doesn't bode well...

 

[elwheelio]

If we need 38 points that's either 10 draws (not going to happen) or as many as 3 wins. 3 wins in 10 games (considering who we've got to play) is a big ask when we've managed only 6 in the last 28. We'd need to find the form of our lives. Nothing in the past few months has suggested we will.

 

[Giraffe]

It's fair to say that it doesn't look does it? Now six points behind the tracker, which with 10 games to go is a major problem. Add to that we don't look like scoring. We really don't. We probably need at least 10-15 goals to stay up. Who the hell is going to score them? I'm wetting the bed. I think we are going down.

 

[Swansman]

Four winnable games left. Its not like its impossible.

 

[TottonSeagull]

Four winnable games left. Its not like its impossible.

Clueless, just like your mentor!

 

[fleet]

It’s not good is it?

 

[Swansman]

Clueless, just like your mentor!

You are loud. People have three or so exclamation marks to use over a lifetime and should use them wisely.

 

[Giraffe]

And this how the we all line up on the same methodology:

Southampton 46
Newcastle 45
Palace 44
Watford 39
West Ham 38
Bournemouth 37
Norwich 35
Brighton 34
Aston Villa 33


HOWEVER - if we win at home to one of the top six we stay up on this basis. That's how tight it is. However we still then need to get 5 points from those last 3 games.

One thing is for certain, we will be in the bottom 3 very soon, and IF we somehow stay up it will be last day escape stuff.

 

[Giraffe]

I find this analysis interesting and disturbing.

7 of the last 10 against teams in top half. We have only managed 10 points from the top ten.

That said there no one has done the double over us. Yet.

But we have only bettered one team, Watford.