[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - the staying up tracker - season 2019-2020 Game 38 UPDATE

[London Irish]

Also, I reckon we are 3 points better off against the same opponents compared to last year. (I have compared the Aston Villa result to Cardiff)

What’s the rationale there, surely Villa as the lowest ranked of the promoted teams should be compared to lowest ranked of relegated teams, Huddersfield. Then Norwich/Cardiff - Sheffield Utd/Fulham ?

 

[Weststander]

What’s the rationale there, surely Villa as the lowest ranked of the promoted teams should be compared to lowest ranked of relegated teams, Huddersfield. Then Norwich/Cardiff - Sheffield Utd/Fulham ?

But Villa in one summer spent what we did in 4 transfer windows. Come season kick off, clearly a stronger squad than Norwich and Sheff Utd (the laughing at them on NSC this summer was premature).

 

[London Irish]

But Villa in one summer spent what we did in 4 transfer windows. Come season kick off, clearly a stronger sequad than Norwich and Sheff Utd (the laughing at them on NSC this summer was premature).

Generally if you want statistics to be meaningful you build in as few value judgements as possible. What is not a value judgment is Villa finished 5th and came up in playoffs, as Rafa would say these are...

 

[Weststander]

Generally if you want statistics to be meaningful you build in as few value judgements as possible. What is not a value judgment is Villa finished 5th and came up in playoffs, as Rafa would say these are...

I accept that for the exercise. But making this more complex to compare, are situations such as this where a promoted club blows half the league away in spending colossal sums in one summer window. On paper Villa have replaced Hudd, but their PL prospects Aug 18 versus Aug 19 couldn’t be more different.

 

[perseus]

League table last season after 10 games; https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/premier-league/30-october-2018/

PS: U18 defeated Leicester 3-2 in the PL Cup https://int.soccerway.com/matches/2...er-18-academy/brighton--hove-alb-u18/3161618/

 

[London Irish]

We may drop one or two places in the table before the weekend is out but it's a satisfactory start for Potter without any real sign of outperformance.

The most interesting thing for me is we've got the keeper sorted and the striker pairing now looks nailed on. In between that is a huge sifting sand of volatility, who are his number one defenders? What's his best combination of midfielders and wide players? No one quite knows - does he? Beat Norwich next week and he has plenty of wiggle room to address these issues.

 

[Giraffe]

We may drop one or two places in the table before the weekend is out but it's a satisfactory start for Potter without any real sign of outperformance.

The most interesting thing for me is we've got the keeper sorted and the striker pairing now looks nailed on. In between that is a huge sifting sand of volatility, who are his number one defenders? What's his best combination of midfielders and wide players? No one quite knows - does he? Beat Norwich next week and he has plenty of wiggle room to address these issues.

I'd say Stephens is also nailed on every game. Would be very surprised if he ever gets dropped.

 

[Stat Brother]

I'd say Stephens is also nailed on every game. Would be very surprised if he ever gets dropped.

Apologise, I didn't scroll back far enough.


As you were.

 

[albionfan37]

League table last season after 10 games; https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/premier-league/30-october-2018/

PS: U18 defeated Leicester 3-2 in the PL Cup https://int.soccerway.com/matches/2...er-18-academy/brighton--hove-alb-u18/3161618/

U18s are undefeated this season are they not?

 

[Perkino]

I'm most interested to see who Potter brings in during the January transfer window. Everyone has there opinions on who is the weakest link and where we lack competition but I expect his new signings to get game time just like Trossard, Webster & Maupay have when available

 

[Frankie]

I think we will lose Duffy in January and have fend off a huge bid for Dunk, we have Clarke in the wings for back up there if that happens, we need a ready made replacement for Montoya, other than that I can't see us doing much business in January.

The difference this season to last is for me how high we can finish rather than hoping we don't get relegated, we have a exciting squad of players who've had to completely change their style of play under a new manager, all the signs are is that the system is starting to work even though we're more vulnerable at the back we look like scoring a hell of a lot more.

It's a marvellous time to be watching Brighton and hove albion.

 

[A1X]

I wonder if we're still doing well (and looking good for staying up) and Huddersfield continue to struggle whether we might see Mooy on a perm?

 

[Audax]

I accept that for the exercise. But making this more complex to compare, are situations such as this where a promoted club blows half the league away in spending colossal sums in one summer window. On paper Villa have replaced Hudd, but their PL prospects Aug 18 versus Aug 19 couldn’t be more different.

Fulham did the same last year, and look where that got them. Sometimes spending a fortune on players can make matters worse.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

I think we'll be offloading Duffy in January and have fend off a huge bid for Dunk, we have Clarke in the wings for back up there if that happens, we need a ready made replacement for Montoya, other than that I can't see us doing much business in January.

The difference this season to last is for me how high we can finish rather than hoping we don't get relegated, we have a exciting squad of players who've had to completely change their style of play under a new manager, all the signs are is that the system is starting to work even though we're more vulnerable at the back we look like scoring a hell of a lot more.

It's a marvellous time to be watching Brighton and hove albion.

Amended for you

I also think we'll be in the market for another striker or CAM that can shoot.

 

[Weststander]

Fulham did the same last year, and look where that got them. Sometimes spending a fortune on players can make matters worse.

Overall it probably works, especially spending on wages. There's a proven overall positive correlation between total payroll spend and PL finishing position. For the obvious reason, higher wages can draw in better players.

Obviously with a scatter of clubs above and below that correlation line. Examples of clubs breaking that trend - Villa, Newcastle and Sunderland in their last PL relegation seasons. Basket cases.

 

[FatSuperman]

Overall it probably works, especially spending on wages. There's a proven overall positive correlation between total payroll spend and PL finishing position. For the obvious reason, higher wages can draw in better players.

Obviously with a scatter of clubs above and below that correlation line. Examples of clubs breaking that trend - Villa, Newcastle and Sunderland in their last PL relegation seasons. Basket cases.

I wonder at what point the correlation starts to fall apart? You would assume that if there was a direct correlation between wage bill and PL position, it would be easy to predict the finishing sequence. Obviously it is heavily reliant on those wages being spent in a halfway sensible manner, but surely there is a diminishing return?

Surely someone has done a chart for 17/18 wages versus finishing position? And maybe 18/19 based on the numbers we know?

 

[Rogero]

I think we will lose Duffy in January and have fend off a huge bid for Dunk, we have Clarke in the wings for back up there if that happens, we need a ready made replacement for Montoya, other than that I can't see us doing much business in January.

The difference this season to last is for me how high we can finish rather than hoping we don't get relegated, we have a exciting squad of players who've had to completely change their style of play under a new manager, all the signs are is that the system is starting to work even though we're more vulnerable at the back we look like scoring a hell of a lot more.

It's a marvellous time to be watching Brighton and hove albion.

Which Clarke ?

 

[Audax]

Overall it probably works, especially spending on wages. There's a proven overall positive correlation between total payroll spend and PL finishing position. For the obvious reason, higher wages can draw in better players.

Obviously with a scatter of clubs above and below that correlation line. Examples of clubs breaking that trend - Villa, Newcastle and Sunderland in their last PL relegation seasons. Basket cases.

I don't think it's the spend itself (although having a high budget obviously helps land the players). It's how the budget is spent. You need the right players for the system the manager wants to play, along with a manager who can develop a system that works.

Fulham clearly got that wrong last year - spent a fortune, but ultimately they created a disaster. Villa I think the verdict is still out, but looks like they might have done a better job with their spending I'll grant that - they've kept a core of players and spent around the core. At the same time, though, they aren't exactly pulling away from the relegation zone.

Conversely, look at us: pretty conservative spending levels. Stayed up two seasons by the skin of our teeth. Some more minor squad purchases for this season, coupled with a big managerial change, and we look a far better side (just not yet putting the results together to go with it). A couple of unfortunate results go the other way and we'd be knocking on the top 6 door right now.

 

[Taybha]

Which Clarke ?

Probably Mathew , on loan with Derby at the moment .

 

[Icy Gull]

I wonder if we're still doing well (and looking good for staying up) and Huddersfield continue to struggle whether we might see Mooy on a perm?

Huddersfield, after not winning for months, are on a roll with their new manager