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[Albion] To Avoid De Zerbi Bashing - The Staying Up/Europe Tracker - season 2022-23 FINAL Update - 22 OVER



Official Old Man

Uckfield Seagull
Aug 27, 2011
8,684
Brighton
Is it only me who is slightly concerned about getting into Europe? I look at similar teams who did qualify like West Ham, Leicester, Wolves, and think the extra games would affect injuries, fatigue etc. Teams apart from the big 6 who have a lot of quality in depth, seem to fade away quickly once they’ve played in the European competitions.
Ask anyone who was at Hereford or, like me, done Lincoln City in the 70's if we'd like Europe before we are incapable of getting on a plane. Sorry for being greedy but I want to do 'that trip' and don't care where it is, as long as it's not Scotland!
 








A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
18,574
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Having European trips didn't do Burnley much good from memory...
Yes but they're already pre-programmed to react badly to foreigners turning up so they were at a disadvantage
 


The Optimist

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Apr 6, 2008
2,648
Lewisham
It’s even more bonkers than that.. first half of the season we almost doubled the “expected” points - 31 against 16. Second half of the season, we’re “expecting“ 24 - if we also double that, we could be nearer 80 points.

(If my sums are right, of course!)

Leicester dropped 2 expected points today, and they were already bottom of the tracker! (See post 319)
The only problem is that’s it’s harder to out perform the tracker when it’s predicting more points.

In our remaining 19 games the tracker has us down to win 6 games, we have to win those just to keep up and then that leaves us with 13 games to try to out perform the tracker.

In our first 19 games the tracker had us down to win 4 games, so we had 15 opportunities to outperform it.
 




Fungus

Well-known member
NSC Patron
May 21, 2004
7,066
Truro
The only problem is that’s it’s harder to out perform the tracker when it’s predicting more points.

In our remaining 19 games the tracker has us down to win 6 games, we have to win those just to keep up and then that leaves us with 13 games to try to out perform the tracker.

In our first 19 games the tracker had us down to win 4 games, so we had 15 opportunities to outperform it.
True, we’d have to out-perform Arsenal’s start to the season! I’ll be happy with 70.
:dezerbi:
 




Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
26,689
Update of the league table sees us comfortably in the Champions League.

A sentence I never thought I'd say!

NSC Others 19.png
 








Seagull on the Hill

Well-known member
Jan 22, 2022
524
The only problem is that’s it’s harder to out perform the tracker when it’s predicting more points.

In our remaining 19 games the tracker has us down to win 6 games, we have to win those just to keep up and then that leaves us with 13 games to try to out perform the tracker.

In our first 19 games the tracker had us down to win 4 games, so we had 15 opportunities to outperform it.
I thought you were an optimist!
 








Official Old Man

Uckfield Seagull
Aug 27, 2011
8,684
Brighton
EUROPE
Not sure whether we should have a more accurate European tracker. Points isn't necessarily the guarantee of any Euro place. It could be 7th or 5th, who knows.
To sum up-
Top 4 straight into the Champions League group stages.
5th is the Europa League group stage.
FA Cup winner is Europa League group stage.
League Cup winner goes into the play-offs of the Conference League.
So that is our 7 teams in Europe.
BUT
If the FA Cup winners are top 5 then 6th place gets a Europa League group stage place. If not us winning the cup, then a top 5 team. 4 clubs could go in to the 5th round but that includes Liverpool & Spurs, two clubs we should aim to be above anyway.
If the EFL Cup winners are top 5 then 6th (or 7th if FA Cup winners in top 5) goes into the Conference play-offs. Newcastle v Man Utd final would almost certainly add 1 more place in the league to Europe.
CONFERENCE
Here's those dreaded play-off dates though. It all kicks off on the 13th July with games every week.
 




Garry Nelson's Left Foot

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
13,238
tokyo
EUROPE
Not sure whether we should have a more accurate European tracker. Points isn't necessarily the guarantee of any Euro place. It could be 7th or 5th, who knows.
To sum up-
Top 4 straight into the Champions League group stages.
5th is the Europa League group stage.
FA Cup winner is Europa League group stage.
League Cup winner goes into the play-offs of the Conference League.
So that is our 7 teams in Europe.
BUT
If the FA Cup winners are top 5 then 6th place gets a Europa League group stage place. If not us winning the cup, then a top 5 team. 4 clubs could go in to the 5th round but that includes Liverpool & Spurs, two clubs we should aim to be above anyway.
If the EFL Cup winners are top 5 then 6th (or 7th if FA Cup winners in top 5) goes into the Conference play-offs. Newcastle v Man Utd final would almost certainly add 1 more place in the league to Europe.
CONFERENCE
Here's those dreaded play-off dates though. It all kicks off on the 13th July with games every week.
I'm all for a jaunt in Europe, it'd be epic.

If it helps my very rudimentary analysis says:

We have 31 points after 19 games. If we do the same again we'll end the season on 62.

Over the past 10 seasons:

the team in fifth finished with 62 points or less once.

the team in 6th finished with 62 points or less three times

the team in 7th finished with 62 points or less nine times.

So we are on course for a points total that will most likely leave us in 7th and the Europa conference league. Provided saints or forest don't go and win the league cup.

That's pretty exciting!
 




Napper

Well-known member
Jul 9, 2003
23,971
Sussex
I'd love Europe , it would be the ultimate watching Us in Europe with Albion fans taking over pubs in a foreign country. Don't think it could ever be topped.

My god will it cost some money though as I'd have to do all of them
 








Official Old Man

Uckfield Seagull
Aug 27, 2011
8,684
Brighton
So we are on course for a points total that will most likely leave us in 7th and the Europa conference league. Provided saints or forest don't go and win the league cup.

That's pretty exciting!
Plus a top 5 team have to win the FA Cup for 7th to apply and, as it stands, that needs to be Man City/Arsenal (one leaving next week), Spurs (one of our target teams), Man Utd (don't think they'll fade) or, should the unthinkable happen, Liverpool, although they too are a target team to be above.
I've a feeling a team outside the top may win the cup so 6th should be the target.
 


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