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[Albion] To Avoid De Zerbi Bashing - The Staying Up/Europe Tracker - season 2022-23 FINAL Update - 22 OVER



Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
Aug 8, 2005
25,672
So here we go again for the SIXTH season.

Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker in the last few seasons.

The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that, and yes for many seasons now the level has been lower but it has happened in the past, it nearly happened last season and therefore I am sticking with it - hit 40 points and we are almost certainly staying up).

To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away (bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to Newcastle, but not Wolves or above.

So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. It pretty much worked the last few seasons although this might be the season where we don't have a rogue team that massively under performs their previous season like Leeds and Everton did last season.

This season seems to be pretty well weighted, with 20 points expected in each half. This hasn't always been the case in previous seasons.

So this is how the tracker sees the upcoming season:

- It's a relatively slow start with 7 points from the first 6 games. Probably bottom half stuff?
- By the end of October as the "More snow tomorrow" thread sees it's first outing, we have 15 from 14, including absolutely smashing Palace at the Amex with a Julio Enciso hat trick.
- By the time St George, Southgate, Dunky, Webster, Lamptey, March, Lallana and Welbeck have flown to Qatar we have 18 points from 16.
- A jaded dull draw at Southampton on Boxing Day with all our world cup stars rested followed by defeat to Arsenal sees us with just 19 from 18 points - a nervous time.
- Second half of the season is much like the first. No runs of absolutely killer games but there are 84 days without a win between beating Aston Villa in November and Bournemouth in February. Southgate had better "be the one" during that time or it will be a pretty miserable winter.
- We only dip below the one point a game measure twice, 21st January and then 29th April.
- But 7 points from the last 4 games sees us home. Hoorah!

I really hope we do significantly better than above, but we need a great start again I feel to keep the momentum from last season going.

Last season I guessed at 52-55 points, just over the 51 we got. This season will be tough, but I think we can get to 52-55 this time.

Aim high - it's the Giraffe way.
 

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Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
Aug 8, 2005
25,672
And for those of a more ambitious nature, this is the back up to the European tracker. Set at 60 points, the next 5 teams, Wolves, Leicester, West Ham, Man United and Arsenal all need to come into the equation for a home win and away draw.
 

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Brighton Lines

The Manifestation of Moribund
Apr 5, 2014
21,739
I think we need a 'Potter OUT' tracker too.

The idea being to forecast the most likely points in a season at which NSC will go into meltdown.

Also, a Potter 'points' tracker. The amount of times he says 'the points' in an interview as a cumulative total.
 

Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
Aug 8, 2005
25,672
Had a bit of time on my hands and checked back the reliability of the tracker in terms of predicting individual results. Not it's purpose but it tells a story nonetheless.

Correct results:
17/18 - 20
18/19 - 20
19/20 - 17
20/21 - 17
21/22 - 10

Potter is less predictable than Hughton. Who knew? :)
 

American Seagle

Well-known member
Jun 14, 2022
396
This is a cool metric! :albion2:
Did anyone else spot that five thirty eight pre-season predictions had us to finish on the exact points and goal difference we ended up on!
 

Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
9,111
Cumbria
Added to my bookmarks.

Thanks as ever.

On what date will we see the first misunderstanding of the tracker and how it works? I'm going for before September.
 

warmleyseagull

Well-known member
Apr 17, 2011
4,073
Beaminster, Dorset
Love this, but isn't it time to acknowledge that we are actually better away than at home?

Our PL position in all 3 seasons under Potter is higher for away performance than home; last season we qualified for Europe on away form (29 points 5th) but remained in customary bottom 6 (22 points 16th) for home and would comfortably have been in relegation zone on home form if not for final two games. The only major exception was first PL season under Hughton (29 points home 8th, 11 points away 20th).
 

Goring-by-Seagull

Well-known member
Jan 5, 2012
1,972
Added to my bookmarks.

Thanks as ever.

On what date will we see the first misunderstanding of the tracker and how it works? I'm going for before September.

There will be one before then no doubt. I love the tracker, but the best part is the people who don't understand it. "So you're saying we won't get a SINGLE POINT from any of the top ten?"
 

um bongo molongo

Well-known member
Jul 26, 2004
2,392
Battersea
Love this, but isn't it time to acknowledge that we are actually better away than at home?

Our PL position in all 3 seasons under Potter is higher for away performance than home; last season we qualified for Europe on away form (29 points 5th) but remained in customary bottom 6 (22 points 16th) for home and would comfortably have been in relegation zone on home form if not for final two games. The only major exception was first PL season under Hughton (29 points home 8th, 11 points away 20th).

Indeed. A ‘reverse tracker’ (3 points away, 1 at home) is needed please Giraffe…
 

Perkino

Well-known member
Dec 11, 2009
5,903
I love The Staying Up Tracker, however a European finish will depend on us being able to get wins against the bottom 6 as we already do very well against some decent sides
 

Reddleman

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
1,513
I actually just let out a quiet but audible ‘yes’ (my sick son is in bed next to me) when I saw this thread! If that’s makes me sad it also makes me very happy. Thanks as always Mr Giraffe.
 

GT49er

Well-known member
Feb 1, 2009
44,549
Gloucester
Splendid effort yet again. Never been bothered with the graph thingamejig, but the second (60 point) tracker to go with the 40 point staying up tracker is brill.
 

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