The Corby By-election

[Simster]

I see Labour re-took it from the Tories with a massive 12% swing. This comes as no surprise, given the state of the economy, the ill-feeling towards the government and the fact there is often a back lash against the government of the day in mid term by-elections. However, it was interesting to see the Lib Dems being annialated and easily beaten into 4th (1,770 votes) by UKIP (5,100)

And UKIP's leader, Nigel Farage, said: "Third place and our best ever score in a by-election, so we're very, very pleased about what's happened here in Corby." He added: "There's a big change in politics. UKIP is now the third party."



So what does NSC think? Are UKIP really the third party? Have the Lib Dems really slit their own throats to the extent that they really will be 4th place in the next election in some way of measurement (no of seats or % of popular vote)?

What does NSC think? My opinion is, much as I loathe what UKIP stands for, I can see them vying with the LibDems for 3rd place in the popular vote next time, and possibly winning that, but that the LibDems will get more seats.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

No, they won't be the third party, and frankly, who cares? In a FPTP system, the whole concept of 'battling for third place' is an entirely irrelevant one.

 

[happypig]

I want to know why Frank Zappa was standing :

 

[The Large One]

There is almost always a backlash locally against the incumbent national ruling party, and is rarely a complete representation of voting intentions at a general elections. You have to go back to June 1982 for the last time an opposition party seat was gained by the government party (though that couldn't have happened here).

The biggest party to gain were UKIP, hence Farage being bullish. Where did those votes come from? Disaffected Tories (their main source of votes) in a protest vote would be my most likely explanation. Come the GE, there is a high probability those who voted UKIP will revert to voting Conservative.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

I see Labour re-took it from the Tories with a massive 12% swing. This comes as no surprise, given the state of the economy, the ill-feeling towards the government and the fact there is often a back lash against the government of the day in mid term by-elections. However, it was interesting to see the Lib Dems being annialated and easily beaten into 4th (1,770 votes) by UKIP (5,100)

And UKIP's leader, Nigel Farage, said: "Third place and our best ever score in a by-election, so we're very, very pleased about what's happened here in Corby." He added: "There's a big change in politics. UKIP is now the third party."



So what does NSC think? Are UKIP really the third party? Have the Lib Dems really slit their own throats to the extent that they really will be 4th place in the next election in some way of measurement (no of seats or % of popular vote)?

What does NSC think? My opinion is, much as I loathe what UKIP stands for, I can see them vying with the LibDems for 3rd place in the popular vote next time, and possibly winning that, but that the LibDems will get more seats.

UKIP is not to everyone's liking, however Farage is spot on about the Euro and other issues that concern people at the moment. I heard Millliband on the radio earlier. It's actually quite pathetic that he needs to keep using this word "one nation" when he speaks now. If he thinks repeating the words "one nation" is going to make people vote for Labour again and repair this country he has another thing coming.

Labour are going to have to do a hell of a lot more to start convincing people. Like you loathe UKIP, I loath The Labour Party. However I would rather have The Tories running this country over Labour anyday. Until Milliband starts shows the same passion as Farage, I will not be voting Labour. UKIP have my vote. It's a protest vote, but I also agree what Farage says on some issues. I can't agree with anything Labour say at the moment. I just feel if Labour get back in they will finally ruin anything left that is good about this country.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

I see Labour re-took it from the Tories with a massive 12% swing.

In the PCC election in Sussex, there was a swing of 10.5 per cent from Conservative to Labour - so maybe Corby isn't unique.

 

[Ernest]

1st is 1st and the rest nowhere, who matters who finishes 3rd in a winner take all contest ? If they finished 3rd in every election would only mean one thing, they would have the same number of seats as they do now

 

[Dusty_Fryer]

I want to know why Frank Zappa was standing :
View attachment 36444

Zappy Chef.

 

[Leekbrookgull]

Mid-term like many have stated,plus the way the former M/P quit and lets face it that Nadine Dorries would struggle to hold her Mid-Bedfordshire seat (15,000 Maj) after her efforts in Australia ? Reports in several papers again saying the eurozone is in double dip reccession,so just where the two Ed's are coming i just don't know ?

 

[Common as Mook]

The only worry is that they will take a proportion of the Tory vote and let the Red plums back in.

 

[Dandyman]

Good result for Labour. As for UKIP they are more a threat to the internal stability of the Tory Party than a serious political force in the nation.

 

[Pavilionaire]

1. The turnout was appallingly low.
2. Lib Dems are a party of government so are getting a backlash just the same as the Tories.
3. They will suffer in the short term but all the while the two main parties lack policies and personalities they'll have a sizeable minority of the electorate voting for them. Once Clegg goes their stock will rise again.
4. UKIP are a one issue party and therefore have no credibility.
5. 2 Party politics is shit. Just look at the States - 50/50 split and at a complete logjam with voters very apathetic.

 

[beorhthelm]

The biggest party to gain were UKIP, hence Farage being bullish. Where did those votes come from? Disaffected Tories (their main source of votes) in a protest vote would be my most likely explanation. Come the GE, there is a high probability those who voted UKIP will revert to voting Conservative.

that.

they are a single issue party, albeit a big issue, so wont be taken seriously come the next general election. whats will be interesting is how Labour respond as they've been getting a little bit anti-europe lately and might take this as suggestive they should continue on that path. while some might think that will be bad for the Conservatives, it'll probably make them head further that way themselfs. iirc the majority of the "new intake" are euroskeptic, and its clear to a blind man that theres no votes in being pro-european at the moment.

 

[drew]

I want to know why Frank Zappa was standing :
View attachment 36444

Because if he was sitting, you wouldn't be able to see his face!!!

 

[Bry Nylon]

All the while Ed Milliband remains leader of the Labour Party they are effectively unelectable.

Had the wishes of the PLP and the Party members in the country prevailed, and David Milliband been elected leader, they would be an absolute shoe-in for the next election.

 

[Philzo-93]

All the while Ed Milliband remains leader of the Labour Party they are effectively unelectable.

Had the wishes of the PLP and the Party members in the country prevailed, and David Milliband been elected leader, they would be an absolute shoe-in for the next election.

True, but David was for Iraq war and was not afraid to admit that. That could've drastically plummet his approval ratings had he be Labour leader.

 

[stripeyshark]

No, they won't be the third party, and frankly, who cares? In a FPTP system, the whole concept of 'battling for third place' is an entirely irrelevant one.

Are you familiar with how the coalition was formed?...

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Are you familiar with how the coalition was formed?...

Yes thanks.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

The national opinion polls have had UKIP and LibDems neck and neck for the last 6 months at around 8 or 9%. In a general election UKIP would end up with no seats and the LibDems would be lucky to end up with a dozen seats.

 

[Pavilionaire]

I'm bored with UKIP. We live in a global economy ffs. Bunch of tossers, it's all one big protest vote brought on by the MPs expenses scandal and the recession.