[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

[Papa Lazarou]

Papa, do you realise that a combination of snow being the only weather that interests me, and you brilliant knowledge, YOU have become my main (possibly only) source of weather forecasting. The Met Office? Pah, I listen to Papa.

Btw, not being a Brightonian these days, I tend to work on the basis that if Brighton is getting any, I'm bound to on the high grounds of North Kent, but if you could throw in a quick forecast for Meopham, Kent for this week, that would be fab.

With the wind in the East, and you on high ground in Kent, I'd say you'll get hit quite badly over the next 4 days, even if it's showers streaming in off the the Thames Estuary / North Sea. I would say that once the wind turns a little more Easterly you'll get snow.

In fact, if you look at the latest radar:

Will it Rain Today? | Rain radar for the UK | Going to rain? | Meteogroup

There is a large clump of snow forming of the coast near Ipswich, which may hit you.

 

[Giraffe]

So, you don't want some talking Lion type Jesus allegory running around town then?

I would be more than happy to have Aslan walking round the garden, but need some snow first for him to leave his footprints in.

 

[Gritt23]

With the wind in the East, and you on high ground in Kent, I'd say you'll get hit quite badly over the next 4 days, even if it's showers streaming in off the the Thames Estuary / North Sea. I would say that once the wind turns a little more Easterly you'll get snow.

In fact, if you look at the latest radar:

Will it Rain Today? | Rain radar for the UK | Going to rain? | Meteogroup


There is a large clump of snow forming of the coast near Ipswich, which may hit you.

Marvellous scenes. Meopham itself is particularly prone, as we've often had 2-3 inches of snow when even the next village is clear. Bring it on!
Cheer Papa.

 

[Tricky Dicky]

With the wind in the East, and you on high ground in Kent, I'd say you'll get hit quite badly over the next 4 days, even if it's showers streaming in off the the Thames Estuary / North Sea. I would say that once the wind turns a little more Easterly you'll get snow.

In fact, if you look at the latest radar:

Will it Rain Today? | Rain radar for the UK | Going to rain? | Meteogroup

There is a large clump of snow forming of the coast near Ipswich, which may hit you.

Out of interest Papa - before I start taking your forecasts as gospel, what are your qualifications ? Are you Isobel Lang perchance ?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Out of interest Papa - before I start taking your forecasts as gospel, what are your qualifications ? Are you Isobel Lang perchance ?

I studied Meteorology as part of a Geographical Science Degree, and have been a keen amateur Meteorologist for many years now. I'm more John Kettley.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

One thing that is currently stopping a streamer establish at the moment, is that the winds are NE offshore of the Thames Estuary, but N at the coast, which disappates the showers as they reach the coast. Look here for current obs:

Wind Map - Britain Observations

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Today's rather matey weather forecast from the Met Office, sent out at 10:56am and passed on by Brighton & Hove City Council:-



Good morning all,

I promised an update this morning so here it is.

The main points to take are that, even where you haven't had any/much snow so far, you are likely to see some in the coming days. There will be some strong winds making for VERY significant wind chill effects i.e. the expression "bitterly cold" is likely to be understating the case. With the strong winds, any lying snow will drift around, something which could itself cause some problems (e.g. blowing snow back on to already cleared carriageways).

Today there will be frequent snow showers blowing in across parts of Kent and perhaps East Sussex at times. These have the potential to give a few centimetres of snow in places by the end of the day.

As the winds increase later today and overnight and become more easterly, then the showers will start to spread westwards across much more of the region. A wide variation in snow depths is likely across the region by the end of Tuesday morning. The far west may see only a dusting while Kent and East Sussex could have up to 10cm, especially over the higher ground. In general, 2-5 cm with locally more on higher ground (10-locally 15cm possible on Chilterns and North Downs in particular) probably gives a reasonable summary. That said, some drifting will also obviously cause some wide variation in snow depths. So some problems perhaps during tomorrow morning's rush but during Tuesday daylight hours while there will still be a risk of a few snow showers almost anywhere, they should become lighter and more scattered during the day.

By Wednesday, the threat of showers is still there for us all but the high risk areas are back to being Kent and East Sussex and, perhaps, along the Channel coast as the showers develop along the Channel and are blown in land (similar to the weekend).

There is a threat of an area of more persistent snow affecting the region on Thursday but that continues to be monitored so "stay tuned".

For the rest of the week it stays bitterly cold with severe frosts overnight so, with the snow, icy roads are likely to become more of a widespread problem than they have been for most of us so far.

There is currently a Flash warning in operation for Kent and Medway. Advisories for the next few days are in the process of being updated so see (Met Office: London South East England: severe weather warnings) for details of these. The radar images at Met Office: British Isles: Rainfall radar may prove useful.

As ever, I am available on my mobile but if you need urgent weather updates, then there is also the EMARC duty forecaster - available 24/7

Regards,

Graeme

 

[Giraffe]

I have a terrible feeling that Worthing will remain snow free this week.

 

[Marc]

I'm dusting off the snowboard as we...type I guess! I dont think we'll get much though, probably just a sprinkling over the Mile Oakian Downs area....still I'm ready for anything!

 

[philsussex]

The BBC are predicting heavy snow overnight for Hastings at the moment.

Can't help thinking they're just building us up for a big disappointment.

I prefer to listen to Papa's forecasts. More reliable.

 

[Lady Whistledown]

I've got an outdoor training exercise up near Ashdown Forest on Friday. Some forecasts I've seen predict snow and temperatures no higher than 1 degree all day. I am digging out my Antarctic thermals as we speak <shivers>

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The BBC are predicting heavy snow overnight for Hastings at the moment.

Can't help thinking they're just building us up for a big disappointment.

I prefer to listen to Papa's forecasts. More reliable.

The latest Met Office downgrade does concern me for West Sussex, as they have access to a lot more info than they make available online.

Let's hope they have got it wrong, or the models change.

 

[Marc]

The latest Met Office downgrade does concern me for West Sussex, as they have access to a lot more info than they make available online.

Let's hope they have got it wrong, or the models change.

concern you how? lots of Snow or none?

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Hi Papa. I am afraid Sussex and the Brighton / west area in particular are going to be for a complete no snow show during this cold spell. The snow bands keep battering the East of Scotland and the North East with much of this area under 18-24 inches of lying snow with more to come. Some areas could be under 3 feet by the end of the week.

The bands from the North Sea have been relentless for 6 days now. The South and South East are the only areas who have missed out altogether. Not even the south east as Seaford East have seen lying snow. The Argus headline today forecasting 20 cms of snow Tuesday and 15 cm on wednesday made me laugh as this forecast is 4 days out of date and they are latching onto the storm that has long gone into Central Europe. Lazy journalism at the least.

The snow could have happened Saturday/Sunday but the band stayed stubbornly 5 miles out to sea. If it had been blown just 5 miles North we could have had 6 inches of snow.

The forecast today/tomorrow means the midlands and the london/thames valley area will see snow of 1-4inches but it will not now extend south to us. The Easterlies we need are not happening and the strength of the wind is not as much as was expected.

We never get snow from a northerly or north easterly feeding in from the north sea as it never extends this far to Brighton.

It is looking like a cold week but dry and sunny all week with night frosts. The extreme cold is not happening either as it will be around -2c by nights and 2c by day. All in all it should be a very pleasant week down here.

I confidently predict a complete no show for snow for Brighton/West this week. The cold weather is also likely to end at the weekend and be back to the mild southerlies by the start of next week and 11c by day.

The greedy sweaties and northeners have nicked all our snow and there is not much we can do about it.

At least we can get about and do our day to day shit and not be disrupted but I do like a bit of snow. Ah well, never mind.

Regards.

Uncle Spielberg

 

[Marc]

I confidently predict a complete no show for snow for Brighton/West this week.
Regards.

Uncle Spielberg

there it is folks, now expect 2 to 3 FEET of snow

Huge BLUE blob off the Kent coast heading this way:
Met Office: British Isles: Rainfall radar

 

[Lord Bracknell]

I am digging out my Antarctic thermals as we speak

Pics?

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Sorry marc its not going to happen. Even papa is starting to realise this. The set up has been a once in a lifetime event for the North East and East Scotland as they said today on the news it is the worst in living memory but the set up is not going to bring us snow.

We need a proper occluded front with an organised snow band which might have happened if the storm did not f*** off to Germany but the showers and bands from the North sea never mean snow for us and that is the set up we have. I am surprised the areas of Kent and the far east of East Sussex have not seen more but the shower band is constantly coming from the North sea north of East Anglia and that is not going to change.

The other best shot for us is a true easterly with snow bands coming from Russia and continental Europe but we are not in that set up so sorry old friend but just accept it is not going to happen and enjoy the frosts as that is all you are going to get.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Ed

Can I have Graeme's mobile number as he has clearly lost the plot !.

 

[Yoda]

Hi Papa. I am afraid Sussex and the Brighton / west area in particular are going to be for a complete no snow show during this cold spell. The snow bands keep battering the East of Scotland and the North East with much of this area under 18-24 inches of lying snow with more to come. Some areas could be under 3 feet by the end of the week.

The bands from the North Sea have been relentless for 6 days now. The South and South East are the only areas who have missed out altogether. Not even the south east as Seaford East have seen lying snow. The Argus headline today forecasting 20 cms of snow Tuesday and 15 cm on wednesday made me laugh as this forecast is 4 days out of date and they are latching onto the storm that has long gone into Central Europe. Lazy journalism at the least.

The snow could have happened Saturday/Sunday but the band stayed stubbornly 5 miles out to sea. If it had been blown just 5 miles North we could have had 6 inches of snow.

The forecast today/tomorrow means the midlands and the london/thames valley area will see snow of 1-4inches but it will not now extend south to us. The Easterlies we need are not happening and the strength of the wind is not as much as was expected.

We never get snow from a northerly or north easterly feeding in from the north sea as it never extends this far to Brighton.

It is looking like a cold week but dry and sunny all week with night frosts. The extreme cold is not happening either as it will be around -2c by nights and 2c by day. All in all it should be a very pleasant week down here.

I confidently predict a complete no show for snow for Brighton/West this week. The cold weather is also likely to end at the weekend and be back to the mild southerlies by the start of next week and 11c by day.

The greedy sweaties and northeners have nicked all our snow and there is not much we can do about it.

At least we can get about and do our day to day shit and not be disrupted but I do like a bit of snow. Ah well, never mind.

Regards.

Uncle Spielberg

I've no idea what model you are looking at, but the one I've been watching DOES have the wind moving to the East AND strengthening as we go through tomorrow afternoon and even more into Wednesday.

I do agree with what you've said about the weekend though.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

The Beast from the East is battering the North. f*** all south of 250 miles.

Will it Rain Today? | Rain radar for the UK | Going to rain? | Meteogroup