[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

[Giraffe]

Slowly starting to look like we might miss out again. There's a cold spell coming, but will it be cold enough in the south?

It rarely is these days. It's definitely global warming. The sea is too warm.

 

[Mortdecai]

No signs of global warming here. It’s -6c and snow is still with us. But as you can see its much easier the track the deer that walk past the bottom of the garden.

 

[Yoda]

It rarely is these days. It's definitely global warming. The sea is too warm.

Nothing to do with global warning on this set up, just a low pressure system appearing to be one or two hundred miles too far north

 

[Audax]

Models have shifted back towards a potentially very snowy weekend ahead.

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

New York could be getting up to 12" - 18" of snow





https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/major-nor-easter-affecting-northeast-possible-historic-snow-nyc-n1256318

 

[jakarta]

Think this thread should be renamed More Rain Tomorrow as that is all we are getting in Sussex for the foreseeable...

 

[Audax]

Think this thread should be renamed More Rain Tomorrow as that is all we are getting in Sussex for the foreseeable...

There's a bit of to-ing and fro-ing going on with forecast models at the moment. This morning, Netweather had Uckfield down for a day and a half of snow this weekend. Then the 6am models came out and they backed off from that to show it to be more wet. I think the next update, based on what the netweather squad have been saying about the noon models, will be back to having snow for the SE. Very fine margins at the moment on whether we get lucky, or luck out again.

 

[dazzer6666]

There's a bit of to-ing and fro-ing going on with forecast models at the moment. This morning, Netweather had Uckfield down for a day and a half of snow this weekend. Then the 6am models came out and they backed off from that to show it to be more wet. I think the next update, based on what the netweather squad have been saying about the noon models, will be back to having snow for the SE. Very fine margins at the moment on whether we get lucky, or luck out again.

The modelwatching forum has gone into a bit of frenzied pre-apocalyptic blizzard excitement this afternoon (presumably until the usual band of killjoys come along with alternate views as usual).............

 

[vegster]

The modelwatching forum has gone into a bit of frenzied pre-apocalyptic blizzard excitement this afternoon (presumably until the usual band of killjoys come along with alternate views as usual).............

So, when's this rain due then ?

 

[dazzer6666]

So, when's this rain due then ?

Every....****ing.......day

 

[Dr Q]

Another good flumping in beautiful Wharfedale

 

[Giraffe]

The models are a mess now it seems. Sunday night is our best bet I think?

 

[Audax]

The models are a mess now it seems. Sunday night is our best bet I think?

GFS model exploring its own options (which are far less likely to bring snow to us here), while ECM, UKMO, and others have all been looking like bringing in an Easterly and potential for lots of snow in the east (including the south east). Not yet checked in over at Netweather to see how the 12z runs have done.

BTW, for those who don't know: if you check the 7 day forecast on Netweather, that's generated directly from the 4 runs (midnight, 6am, noon, 6pm) the GFS model does each day. If you check BBC, their forecast is so heavily based on ECM it may as well be direct from the ECM (with a bit of lag). ECM gives major updates twice a day (midnight and noon). And then UK Met Office use their own model (plus I think some input from other models).

At the moment, general feeling seems to be that GFS has got this one wrong.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Metcheck had 0 C and heavy snow all Sunday and Monday, now it is 5 C and heavy rain. Seems it is all off, yet again

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Metcheck had 0 C and heavy snow all Sunday and Monday, now it is 5 C and heavy rain. Seems it is all off, yet again

That's because almost all automated forecast sites / apps use the GFS op run, which has been all over the place. The 'new' run will be out soon - it may revert to cold / snowy again. Who knows?

 

[Audax]

Fine margins at the moment.

GFS-based forecasts are giving the south east cold weather, but not cold enough for the precipitation to fall as snow.

BBC (using ECM) is showing cloudy/sunny but cold weekend for Brighton, snow inland starting overnight into Sunday and continuing into Monday (and more on Wednesday).

UKMO is sitting somewhere between the two above - Brighton too far south to get any potential snow but still cold, inland possible light snow Sunday.

Lots still to play for, as there's a lot of uncertainty as to how far south the easterly will be able to draw cold air into. Very fine detail changes could see the South East get dumped on, or miss out completely, or anything in between.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Fine margins at the moment.

GFS-based forecasts are giving the south east cold weather, but not cold enough for the precipitation to fall as snow.

BBC (using ECM) is showing cloudy/sunny but cold weekend for Brighton, snow inland starting overnight into Sunday and continuing into Monday (and more on Wednesday).

UKMO is sitting somewhere between the two above - Brighton too far south to get any potential snow but still cold, inland possible light snow Sunday.

Lots still to play for, as there's a lot of uncertainty as to how far south the easterly will be able to draw cold air into. Very fine detail changes could see the South East get dumped on, or miss out completely, or anything in between.

As I always say, forecasting snow by location is almost impossible, so it's key to get the right conditions in place 1st. We need an ECM / UKMO type outcome, rather than a GFS (6z Op). GFS 12z rolling out now.

 

[Audax]

As I always say, forecasting snow by location is almost impossible, so it's key to get the right conditions in place 1st. We need an ECM / UKMO type outcome, rather than a GFS (6z Op). GFS 12z rolling out now.

Too true. Snow is very much a now-casting thing. Especially with an easterly, any angling north or south makes a big difference in where any snow generated off the North Sea ends up getting dumped.

The last possible snow event a couple weekends back, I watched the system coming in on the radar and got excited because it was showing Uckfield north of the transition from snow to rain/snow/sleet mix. In the end, we got a brief snow event around 0930 that didn't do diddly squat, then nothing for a couple hours (while the radar insisted we were getting snow - guessing it was snowing in the atmosphere and melting before it could reach ground level), then we had rain/snow mix for a bit from the back end of the system.

All very hit and miss, wait and see on the day.

 

[Giraffe]

GFS model exploring its own options (which are far less likely to bring snow to us here), while ECM, UKMO, and others have all been looking like bringing in an Easterly and potential for lots of snow in the east (including the south east). Not yet checked in over at Netweather to see how the 12z runs have done.

BTW, for those who don't know: if you check the 7 day forecast on Netweather, that's generated directly from the 4 runs (midnight, 6am, noon, 6pm) the GFS model does each day. If you check BBC, their forecast is so heavily based on ECM it may as well be direct from the ECM (with a bit of lag). ECM gives major updates twice a day (midnight and noon). And then UK Met Office use their own model (plus I think some input from other models).

At the moment, general feeling seems to be that GFS has got this one wrong.

Thanks, that helpful. Net Weather and BBC both currently showing no snow for Sunday having done so yesterday.

 

[Mellor 3 Ward 4]

I'm normally all over the 'snow' thread, but with 50+ million people to vaccinate, including at the moment lots of oldies who may struggle to travel, it can do one this year.

#killjoy

Heavy snow across parts of northern England has led to some coronavirus vaccinations being cancelled as people were warned against non-essential travel.

Appointments at the Great Yorkshire Showground and Ripon Racecourse were cancelled this morning, with people told their jabs would be rescheduled.

"Particularly bad conditions" in Huddersfield led health chiefs to warn those due to receive vaccinations at the town's John Smith's Stadium to "only travel if they feel safe and confident in doing so".

Covid testing sites in Catterick and Thornton Le Dale were also shut and appointments rearranged.

In Bingley, West Yorkshire, bad weather stopped Covid-19 home testing teams visiting people, Bradford Council said.

This is why I don't want any snow this year - sorry.