[Albion] Still think we’re safe?

[warmleyseagull]

I think that Southampton getting an equaliser in the 96th minute, pressing hard all game and playing us 72 hours later, after a long journey home tonight, should mean we are more rested. Whether that gives us an advantage is another thing. We'll need a quick start.

That was theory for Man U game: they would be exhausted as it was 3rd game in 6 days or whatever, and you have to say they were well off the pace; only 62% possession, 12 shots and 6 on target and 3-0. Thank goodness they weren't rested.

 

[ac gull]

Watford v W Ham this Friday and Villa v W Ham final day - they can't all win every game

 

[Bold Seagull]

They might not be so wonderful for their 3rd game in 6 days.

I have got a mattress protector in the cupboard if you need a spare one?

 

[sparkie]

I have got a mattress protector in the cupboard if you need a spare one?

No thanks, not my thing.

 

[Stato]

That was theory for Man U game: they would be exhausted as it was 3rd game in 6 days or whatever, and you have to say they were well off the pace; only 62% possession, 12 shots and 6 on target and 3-0. Thank goodness they weren't rested.

They rested most of their team for the Norwich cup game.

 

[Barrow Boy]

Maybe they have a manager that inspires confidence and he doesn’t make whole sale changes every week!

Controversial and, some would call, blasphemous talk like that may well end up with you receiving a strongly worded (and long) email from Paul Barber! Let alone the wrath of the morally outraged on NSC, be prepared for incoming.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Talking about generally. Using a general, lighthearted well know phrase that many fans identify with and use. Again. FFS, Dullard alert or wot

You were talking boll*cks mate, that's what it was

 

[nickjhs]

I think based on probabilities we will stay up, but those of you who are supremely confident, almost to the point of no doubt, you have no justification for your position, 9 points in play and we are 5 points clear means we have a chance of being relegated.

 

[PILTDOWN MAN]

I think based on probabilities we will stay up, but those of you who are supremely confident, almost to the point of no doubt, you have no justification for your position, 9 points in play and we are 5 points clear means we have a chance of being relegated.

No but we could also finish 11

 

[nickjhs]

No but we could also finish 11

Exactly, nothing is set in stone, nothing is assured.

 

[vagabond]

I think based on probabilities we will stay up, but those of you who are supremely confident, almost to the point of no doubt, you have no justification for your position, 9 points in play and we are 5 points clear means we have a chance of being relegated.

Correct [emoji106]

 

[Moshe Gariani]

I think based on probabilities we will stay up, but those of you who are supremely confident, almost to the point of no doubt, you have no justification for your position, 9 points in play and we are 5 points clear means we have a chance of being relegated.

Simple differences in personalities and attitudes being played out.

There is less than 1% probability that we’ll be relegated.

Those of us who are “supremely confident, almost to the point of no doubt” mostly just understand probability. Some of us layer on top an element of usually choosing to think all will be well when a positive outcome is very likely.

 

[nickjhs]

There is less than 1% probability that we’ll be relegated.

Do you fancy showing the math for this?

 

[OzMike]

We could still get relegated until it is mathematically impossible and it isn't that yet, though it will probably all hinge on the next round of games.

 

[Steve Foster]

Norwich relegated - Fact

Two from Five - will be relegated too. We are one of the Five - Fact

Hopefully - we’ll be out the group of doom soon - but let’s face facts - we are not very good & haven’t been very good in all three seasons in the top flight. There are occasional flashes of brilliance like Ali J overhead kick, Connolly’s goals against Spurs & March ran passed a defender once & accurately crossed a ball to one of our forwards .... but will we be missed if we went down?

 

[SeagullDubai]

Watford v W Ham this Friday and Villa v W Ham final day - they can't all win every game

Where are the statisticians when you need them. It would be good to see the various permutations of the bottom 5 winning, drawing or losing, especially when playing each other to tell the masses the chances of relegation should we not earn another point. My nails are already down to my knuckles.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Do you fancy showing the math for this?

In regards to the maths it is too complicated for me to work out fully, but my theory is as follows:

With three games left there are 27 possible permutations from each club's remaining games ( WWW/WWL/WWD/WDD.... etc)

If we make the assumption that 4 pts will see us safe,then from our 27 permutations:

16 guarantee us safety.
4 give us 3 pts
3 give us 2 pts
3 give us 1 pt
1 will give us 0 pts

If Villa get 9pts (1/27) they will finish above us in 4/27 scenarios 4/729
If Villa get 7pts (3/27) they will finish above us in 1 scenario 3/729

Villa have less than a 1% chance (7/729) of finishing above us

PLB get 9 pts they will finish above us in 10 scenarios 10/729
PLB get 7pts they will finish above us in 4 scenarios 12/729
PLB get 6 pts they will finish above us in 1 scenario 4/729

Plucky have a 26/729 or 3.6% chance.

If you factor in the odds of Plucky not losing to City (required for 22 of 26 scenarios) and the fact that Watford are also in the mix, I don't think < 1% is way off the mark.

My maths could be suspect though.....

 

[sparkie]

Where are the statisticians when you need them. It would be good to see the various permutations of the bottom 5 winning, drawing or losing, especially when playing each other to tell the masses the chances of relegation should we not earn another point. My nails are already down to my knuckles.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Using the fishy predictor and giving the bottom sides 100% wins, along with various results for West Ham v Watford and Villa v West Ham, suggests that in the doomsday set of results we need 3 more points, maybe 1 point with the right combinations.

Victory for Man City v Bournemouth really helps us and makes 1 point needed much more likely than 3.

Similarly, Man City beating Watford and Man Utd beating West Ham will be very valuable results for us.



Too many permutations to list, but for now to breathe a little easier we need Man City to beat Bournemouth tomorrow.

 

[Icy Gull]

I am taking this one game at a time.

We have played four of the top five and the bottom club. Shame that our next game is against what has to be the form team outside of the three top teams we have recently played.

Saints ended up with more possession than United and matched them over the game garnering a deserved draw

Our chances of getting anything against Saints in form are slim imo but you never know.

I admire those that have their feet up and a smug “we are staying up” smile.

Fingers crossed that some of the results go our way in this round of matches, if we can’t do it ourselves I’ll happily accept some help from others

I am so confused that I don’t even know what result I want from Watford vs WHU yet

 

[haystack]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

Relegation probability:

Brighton <1%
West Ham 10%
Watford 20%
Bournemouth 85%
Aston Villa 85%
Norwich 100%