[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[sparkie]

I thought the general consensus (or at least put out by the Pentagon and UK Ministry of Defence) was that the war would slow down for the winter?

I hope we in the west are not resorting to that nasty Russian habit of disinformation !

It slowed recently for the mud. Ukraine has been waiting for the mud to freeze and then it's back on. We are seeing the preparation now with russian fuel, ammo stores and command bases being targeted. My thoughts are that Melitopol will be the next main battle.

 

[raymondo]

And today a Wagner centre in Lugansk has been hit https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63933132

 

[raymondo]

Indeed.

He invades a peaceful, independent sovereign country, killing tens of thousands, causes a refugee crisis, commits atrocities, including torture, rape and abduction of children, weaponises energy, bombs civilian infrastructure to terrorise the population, and when it becomes clear that the invaded country is impossible for him to conquer, he issues a 'we are ready for agreements' speech. In the speech, he says it will be difficult as his level of trust in western nations is near to zero, asks what would he negotiate, asks where is the guarantee, and it 'makes him think who he is dealing with'.

It is beyond ridiculous. The man lives in a parallel universe.

A really good summary @Eric the meek that needs to be remembered by anyone dealing with Putin and his regime.

 

[raymondo]

No deal is possible with Putin because he'll just break it after he has re-armed, and invade again.

So this has to be understood by all parties, and any "deal" just seen as a pause.

So a solution to this situation needs to be found. Instant Ukraine NATO membership would seem to be a good first step along with permanent NATO deployment in Ukraine.

Certainly something 'major' will need to be put in place to properly support any future peace agreement. As you say, the only certain thing about Putin is that he can't be trusted. Maybe his grip on power will weaken, but then who/what comes after him?

 

[Brovion]

I think in the early part of the war Russia was advancing across Ukraine and had at least some pretence of attacking military targets. As Russia have been forced out of the majority of Ukraine, their bombing of civilian infrastructure deep into Ukraine in order to starve civilians of power in winter is obvious to even pro Russian types, and it's not sustainable to allow it to continue with no fight back from Ukraine.

I wonder if the ordinary Russian people are still being told / still believe that the Ukrainians are doing this to themselves? if you remember in the early days of the war all footage of Russian attacks on civilian targets were dismissed as being done by the Ukrainians themselves to garner international sympathy, or were simply being being faked.

 

[raymondo]

Now the Russian ambassador has pissed off Kazakhstan big time. It's a good watch

 

[raymondo]

 

[Triggaaar]

I wonder if the ordinary Russian people are still being told / still believe that the Ukrainians are doing this to themselves? if you remember in the early days of the war all footage of Russian attacks on civilian targets were dismissed as being done by the Ukrainians themselves to garner international sympathy, or were simply being being faked.

I'm slightly past caring what Russia claim, it's just constant BS. It's difficult to imagine the mindset of a Russian citizen who believes any of it.

 

[Eric the meek]

Now the Russian ambassador has pissed off Kazakhstan big time. It's a good watch

You've done it again @raymondo. That's an excellent watch.

I remember that earlier on in the war, Putin asked Kazakhstan to provide troops to supplement Russia's 'special military operation'. Kazakhstan refused, because they viewed it as the rest of the world did - a completely unjustified invasion.

Here we see the deftness of touch of Russian diplomacy, with the Russian ambassador to Kazakhstan threatening a nuclear attack. Such is the legacy of a century of Russian gangster culture of threats and bully-boy tactics. The advantage is that they cannot see beyond their noses, and that such behaviour poisons the well.

Russia is hemorrhaging friends, allies, goodwill, trading partners and its own future.

 

[Rugrat]

Russia is hemorrhaging friends, allies, goodwill, trading partners and its own future.

All the time China and India freely trade with them and they can get the drones from Iran I'm not sure they give a stuff.

 

[raymondo]

You've done it again @raymondo. That's an excellent watch.

I remember that earlier on in the war, Putin asked Kazakhstan to provide troops to supplement Russia's 'special military operation'. Kazakhstan refused, because they viewed it as the rest of the world did - a completely unjustified invasion.

Here we see the deftness of touch of Russian diplomacy, with the Russian ambassador to Kazakhstan threatening a nuclear attack. Such is the legacy of a century of Russian gangster culture of threats and bully-boy tactics. The advantage is that they cannot see beyond their noses, and that such behaviour poisons the well.

Russia is hemorrhaging friends, allies, goodwill, trading partners and its own future.

Yes @Eric the meek I do recall Putin's request to Kazakhstan in the early days of the invasion.
He sums things up very well in his video, and I particularly enjoyed "I hope that this rotten Russian federation of yours will fall apart in the near future" nice one

 

[sparkie]

Yes @Eric the meek I do recall Putin's request to Kazakhstan in the early days of the invasion.
He sums things up very well in his video, and I particularly enjoyed "I hope that this rotten Russian federation of yours will fall apart in the near future" nice one

I think Putin had a choice at some stage of whether to invade Kazakhstan or Ukraine as his next target. If he'd chosen Kazakhstan I think he'd have got away with it - if Europe even cared, shipping weapons there would be a lot trickier - and would have much more left of his army now, ready to then menace Ukraine. What a mistake to make.

 

[Sirnormangall]

I think they would be quite justified in taking out some of Russia's electricity supply too. Power cuts in midwinter would make the war even more unpopular with the Russian public.

They’d certainly be justified in taking out energy targets, but it might be easier to maintain the moral high ground if Ukraine keeps to military targets within Russia.

 

[Eric the meek]

I think Putin had a choice at some stage of whether to invade Kazakhstan or Ukraine as his next target. If he'd chosen Kazakhstan I think he'd have got away with it - if Europe even cared, shipping weapons there would be a lot trickier - and would have much more left of his army now, ready to then menace Ukraine. What a mistake to make.

That's an interesting one, which I hadn't considered. Putin has never made it a secret that he regards the former Soviet breakaway republics as a travesty of justice, and seeks to bring them all back into the fold. So it makes sense that Kazakhstan has also been on Putin's radar, as well as Ukraine et al. The Russian ambassador's ham-fisted attempt at diplomacy confirms this.

 

[NooBHA]

Not stupid but most are starved of the truth and the Russian propoganda machine is working flat out to keep it that way. Their culture is all about conformity and the state controls not only what they do but how they think. Everything I have read suggests that they broadly support what's going on, quite likely because they have no other choice, but they do.

Expecting any change in Putin's thinking as a result of internal disapproval hasn't got a prayer imo. Nor will there be sufficient numbers of dissenters to be anything other than a minor irritation

I hope I'm wrong ofc

Serhy Sternenko came out with another absolute " Belter " of a phrase again the other day on his Podcast when he said " The only good Russians are the ones who can't be detected on a Thermal Imager "

 

[sparkie]

The bridge on the road into Melitopol from the direction of Berdyansk / Mariupol / Russia has been blown.

Nice. The attack on Melitopol is coming.

 

[GT49er]

They’d certainly be justified in taking out energy targets, but it might be easier to maintain the moral high ground if Ukraine keeps to military targets within Russia.

To keep the moral high ground, give the Russians three hours to evacuate, say four, key infrastructure sites, because in three hours we'll destroy one of them with no loss of life (unless you're stupid enough not to evacuate).

 

[Triggaaar]

To keep the moral high ground, give the Russians three hours to evacuate, say four, key infrastructure sites, because in three hours we'll destroy one of them with no loss of life (unless you're stupid enough not to evacuate).

To keep the moral high ground, don't torture, rape, murder, and pillage your way across Russia. Pretty much anything else and you're still morally above Russia.

 

[GT49er]

To keep the moral high ground, don't torture, rape, murder, and pillage your way across Russia. Pretty much anything else and you're still morally above Russia.

Yes, but notification so that civilians can be evacuated establishes the moral high ground, even in Russia (where great swathes of the sheeplike population stll think they hold the moral high ground anyway).

 

[Triggaaar]

Yes, but notification so that civilians can be evacuated establishes the moral high ground, even in Russia (where great swathes of the sheeplike population stll think they hold the moral high ground anyway).

Unfortunately it wouldn't work. The evacuation message wouldn't reach the people for a start.

If Ukraine did that, the brainwashed in Russia would still believe that Ukraine was in the wrong. They seem to be a mix of those who think Russia are just removing Nazis/Nato/Satanists etc, and then those who are proudly sending their men to go rape Ukrainian women. It's a very odd mix, but the general theme is Russia good, Ukraine bad. So from the point of view of Russians, nothing Ukraine does would put them in the right, and from my point of view, there's very little they could do that would put them in the wrong. So they may as well have at it.