[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Nobby Cybergoat]

NATO ultimately exists to defend NATO, and as Ukraine is not in NATO then it would not nuke Moscow if Moscow nuked Kyiv, that's just a statement of fact.

The problem Russia has is if they do go down that road then neither China nor India will back them. Then they're utterly isolated and ****ed. It would be the ultimate pyrrhic victory.

China and India and plenty of countries would still trade with Russia after those circumstances transpire. It has commodities they want.

After a few cold winters Europe probably will as well.

The Kremlin can present the special military operation as as accomplished feat, make a few noises about how it's reforming itself, it can pick off the Euro countries one oy one, the brands will flow back. All the time it's regathering it's strength for the next project. They know this and are prepared to play the long game.

 

[Eric the meek]

After having threatened the world with nuclear war, Russia is running out of things to threaten people with. It's now trying to convince the west that the west would not respond to a nuclear strike.

A reminder that, in this clash of civilisations, Ukraine / the west / Nato are winning the war on all fronts - economic, military and propaganda. At the same time, Russia has become a world pariah, has increased its border with Nato, has a trashed economy, is sending its own untrained conscripts to a near-certain death and is seeing unrest across the nation.

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

After having threatened the world with Brexit, England is running out of things to threaten people with. It's now trying to convince its own population that we are ok.

A reminder that, in this clash of civilisations, Europe and the rest of world are winning the war on all fronts including economically. At the same time, England has become a world pariah, has a trashed economy, and is sending its own untrained politicians to a near-certain collapse of the economy and is seeing unrest across the nation.

fixed for you

 

[Eric the meek]

fixed for you

I'm still waiting for Boris' (still unpublished) Russia report !

But on the off chance that it doesn't materialise, here is what the Royal United Services Institute have to say on the extraordinary measures Russian 'special services' undertake.

'The Kaleidoscopic Campaigning of Russia’s Special Services'

https://rusi.org/explore-our-resear...doscopic-campaigning-russias-special-services

In this context, do you see that Medvedev's comments about the west not responding to a nuclear strike, are just another facet of the whole process of Russian political warfare?

 

[Eric the meek]

Following on from the link above, if you managed to reach the end of that rather long read, you would see the following glimpse into the future:

It suggests that the following key messages will be aimed by Russia at western elites:

'That countries should spend money at home rather than on Ukraine
That arming Ukraine will deplete the West and specifically the US’s ability to deter China
That the fighting in Ukraine will be an indefinite and unwinnable commitment
That arming Ukraine will fuel the proliferation of complex weapons into the hands of terrorists'

Keep an eye out for them.

 

[SeagullinExile]

He's right. We wouldn't do it.

We also wouldn't be sending our troops with those things going off.

It would be a successful strategy from a purely military point of view and that's why the situation is very much on a knife edge. From a Russian view, deploying these weapons makes a lot of sense.

The west has very few other levers it can pull

NATO would have to respond IMO. If it didn’t Russia wouldn’t stop at Ukraine. Russia would rightly assume that the West hasn’t the stomach for war and claim victory, not only against Ukraine, but NATO too. The Baltic states would be next on his hit list.

The use of Nukes would be a game changer.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

NATO would have to respond IMO. If it didn’t Russia wouldn’t stop at Ukraine. Russia would rightly assume that the West hasn’t the stomach for war and claim victory, not only against Ukraine, but NATO too. The Baltic states would be next on his hit list.

The use of Nukes would be a game changer.

Respond is quite a broad phrase though. Do you believe NATO would deploy a nuclear weapon on Russian soil?

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Respond is quite a broad phrase though. Do you believe NATO would deploy a nuclear weapon on Russian soil?

It would be a bit counter productive to bomb ourselves.

 

[Icy Gull]

First LOL I’ve had on this thread

 

[sparkie]

Russia and West poker game - the stakes are rising

"Let's imagine that Russia is forced to use the most fearsome weapon against the Ukrainian regime which had committed a large-scale act of aggression that is dangerous for the very existence of our state," Medvedev said in a post on Telegram.

"I believe that NATO would not directly interfere in the conflict even in this scenario," Medvedev said. "The demagogues across the ocean and in Europe are not going to die in a nuclear apocalypse."


https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/worl...sedgntp&cvid=2823e511a1ae49fbaa76d5d6bb700947

It seems Medvedev is feeling lucky.

 

[sparkie]

NATO would have to respond IMO. If it didn’t Russia wouldn’t stop at Ukraine. Russia would rightly assume that the West hasn’t the stomach for war and claim victory, not only against Ukraine, but NATO too. The Baltic states would be next on his hit list.

The use of Nukes would be a game changer.

And respond NATO would.

But it wouldn't be with a nuke, at least at first.


I'd suggest the complete destruction of the entire Russian Black Sea Fleet would be response 1.

 

[wuntbedruv]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2017-08-01/how-ukraine-reined-its-militias

Out of date info compared to the Reuters article
. Besides, we can control Hitler by including him in the system worked well for Germany

 

[SeagullinExile]

Respond is quite a broad phrase though. Do you believe NATO would deploy a nuclear weapon on Russian soil?

No. But if NATO received intelligence indicating the deployment of tactical nukes to the battlefield by Russia, I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised if we saw precision strikes from the West, in an attempt to stop them being used.

 

[SeagullinExile]

And respond NATO would.

But it wouldn't be with a nuke, at least at first.


I'd suggest the complete destruction of the entire Russian Black Sea Fleet would be response 1.

Exactly. NATO would only use a nuke in response to being hit by one first.

 

[raymondo]

Apologies if fixtures...but there's a good daily podcast, 1-2pm on twitter, hosted by the Daily Telegraph, called Ukraine, The Latest. The discussion was focused on this very issue of NATO response...worth a listen (available on Spotify now or wherever)

 

[raymondo]

Yeah, this all looks totally normal to me...
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/s...88833.ampproject.net/2209072154000/frame.html

 

[wuntbedruv]

Yeah, this all looks totally normal to me...
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/s...88833.ampproject.net/2209072154000/frame.html

Looks like up put up job, the question is who put it up, surely a stream of old ladies pledging allegiance to Russia would be more convincing than a chorus line of troops in uniform.

The referendum is a fixed farce but it is hard to believe that video is credible.

 

[Triggaaar]

Russia and West poker game - the stakes are rising

"Let's imagine that Russia is forced to use the most fearsome weapon against the Ukrainian regime which had committed a large-scale act of aggression that is dangerous for the very existence of our state," Medvedev said in a post on Telegram.

That won't happen - Ukraine will not threaten the existence of Russia. So no need to read his next point.

 

[Triggaaar]

he may well be right, we'd not start lobbing nukes back. it would be a very hollow victory for Russian to have beaten little Ukraine with use of nukes - if they even do. i dont see how they come out of that either domestically or internationally. seems their best outcome from here is to hold what they've taken so far, with a trashed economy and pariah status.

But they're failing to hold what they have taken so far.

 

[Triggaaar]

He's right. We wouldn't do it.

We also wouldn't be sending our troops with those things going off.

It would be a successful strategy from a purely military point of view and that's why the situation is very much on a knife edge. From a Russian view, deploying these weapons makes a lot of sense.

The west has very few other levers it can pull

I think you're wrong. The US has made it clear to Russia what will happen were Russia to use a tactical nuke against Ukraine, and I don't think the US are bluffing. I think it's unlikely that will involve troops on the ground, but I think large conventional strikes against Russian targets are likely in such a scenario.