[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[portlock seagull]

Worth a repost: "Most fascinating thing about the Ukraine war is the sheer number of top strategic thinkers who warned for years that it was coming if we continued down the same path. No-one listened to them and here we are".

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1498491107902062592?s=20&t=hbenIPz4RXW4QtrENq_Chg

Indeed, Garry Kasparov amongst them many years ago when he stated:

We cannot know exactly what horror will come next, only that there will be another and another as long as Putin remains in power. The only way Putin’s rule will end is if the Russian people and Putin’s elites understand they have no future as long as he is there. Right now, no matter how they really feel about Putin and their lives, they see him as invincible and unmovable. They see him getting his way in Ukraine, taking territory and waging war. They see him talking tough and making deals with Merkel and Hollande. They see his enemies dead in the streets of Moscow.

 

[Eric the meek]

I really hope he's right.

(here's the tweet imbedded, for ease)

[tweet]1499059949930004486[/tweet]

I think it is likely that he is right.

The west (US, UK and 27 members of the EU) got together and came up with a suite of sanctions which are designed to, and I quote Ursula von der Leyen, 'cripple' the Russian economy.
This is unprecedented.

Have a read of this from CNN:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/01/business/russia-economy-sanctions/index.html

 

[The Clamp]

The West is at fault with our acceptance of their filthy money and business and because we thought history was somehow over. Putin was always going to try something like this. NATO or no NATO.

 

[portlock seagull]

The West is at fault with our acceptance of their filthy money and business and because we thought history was somehow over. Putin was always going to try something like this. NATO or no NATO.

I remember telling Chelsea friends decades ago that they had blood on their hands, no Russian gets that wealthy without many people paying. Of course none cared. Complicity exists at every level. Probably the chief reason amongst many why I’ve always despised Chelsea.

 

[Bold Seagull]

The West is at fault with our acceptance of their filthy money and business and because we thought history was somehow over. Putin was always going to try something like this. NATO or no NATO.

You have to ask yourself why some of these oligarchs are still enjoying sanction free lives?

 

[portslade seagull]

efforts for what? to embrace the Russian nation and invite them join in on the ideals of market economies, liberal democracy and improvements those ideals bring? absolutly, we've tried to bring them into the fold, overlooking a lot of their domestic habits, to show that trade is the way to prosperity. not that you'd know this from some peoples reaction.

if no one is at war, NATO becomes a bit redundant, not a threat. see how Germany has run done their defense funding, only now to suddenly reinstate the 2% GDP spending.

I wonder if this also means the UK government now reverse some of the defence cuts that have happened over the years. Most of the retired generals think this is a no brainer

 

[Eric the meek]

You have to ask yourself why some of these oligarchs are still enjoying sanction free lives?

At a guess, it's because they aren't considered the ones that matter.

 

[pb21]

I think it is likely that he is right.

The west (US, UK and 27 members of the EU) got together and came up with a suite of sanctions which are designed to, and I quote Ursula von der Leyen, 'cripple' the Russian economy.
This is unprecedented.

Have a read of this from CNN:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/01/business/russia-economy-sanctions/index.html

Just got to stay strong and united for them to all fully take effect.

 

[Poojah]

I think it is likely that he is right.

The west (US, UK and 27 members of the EU) got together and came up with a suite of sanctions which are designed to, and I quote Ursula von der Leyen, 'cripple' the Russian economy.
This is unprecedented.

Have a read of this from CNN:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/01/business/russia-economy-sanctions/index.html

It's an interesting read, but touches on a point that's been nagging away at the back of my mind for a few days now:

Further escalation of the economic conflict could have major consequences.
"Don't forget that in human history, economic wars quite often turned into real ones," former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Thursday in response to Le Maire's comments.

I appreciate the west's options are limited right now. It cannot intervene militarily in Ukraine, and these unprecedentedly heavy sanctions will no doubt be hurting Putin's Russia. And of course, given that it's essentially the world against Russia at the moment, it cannot effectively counter-sanction.

Is there a point though, whereby Putin is losing the battle, not only through economic sanctions but also through the supply of weapons and defence equipment to the Ukranian military, that he decides the west is already at war with him?

Don't get me wrong, I personally feel western governments have just about got this right and done everything they realistically could within the parameters at play, but at the same time that takes us perilously close to 'too much', doesn't it? The Russian bear needs poking, but at the same time it makes me more than a little anxious that it may awaken in a foul mood.

 

[LamieRobertson]

https://youtu.be/J_Yo8Uhe6Dw

 

[Eric the meek]

I wonder if this also means the UK government now reverse some of the defence cuts that have happened over the years. Most of the retired generals think this is a no brainer

Absolutely. British Aerospace shares are up 25% in one week.

Expect more defence spending, and more NATO. Much more.

 

[The Clamp]

Very good debate on the matter on Moral Maze now on BBC Radio 4.

 

[pb21]

Seems China had 'liaised' with Russia over the timing of the invasion and the winter Olympics...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/us/politics/russia-ukraine-china.html

 

[Eric the meek]

It's an interesting read, but touches on a point that's been nagging away at the back of my mind for a few days now:



I appreciate the west's options are limited right now. It cannot intervene militarily in Ukraine, and these unprecedentedly heavy sanctions will no doubt be hurting Putin's Russia. And of course, given that it's essentially the world against Russia at the moment, it cannot effectively counter-sanction.

Is there a point though, whereby Putin is losing the battle, not only through economic sanctions but also through the supply of weapons and defence equipment to the Ukranian military, that he decides the west is already at war with him?

Don't get me wrong, I personally feel western governments have just about got this right and done everything they realistically could within the parameters at play, but at the same time that takes us perilously close to 'too much', doesn't it? The Russian bear needs poking, but at the same time it makes me more than a little anxious that it may awaken in a foul mood.

Yes, I saw that from Medvedev. Russians do like to make threats don't they? That's how they operate. Unnerve the opposition. Put them on the back foot. Make them wonder what your next move is. As we have seen in Ukraine, the Russian war machine is not all that though, is it? I mean, it's pretty basic stuff to ensure your troops are well fed, and your vehicles are well maintained and refuelled easily, isn't it? The reality is the product of decades of corruption, theft, low pay and low morale.

Whether or not the Russian bear needs poking, I think Ursula von der Leyen is doing an excellent job of declawing it. Claw by claw.

 

[herecomesaregular]

It's an interesting read, but touches on a point that's been nagging away at the back of my mind for a few days now:



I appreciate the west's options are limited right now. It cannot intervene militarily in Ukraine, and these unprecedentedly heavy sanctions will no doubt be hurting Putin's Russia. And of course, given that it's essentially the world against Russia at the moment, it cannot effectively counter-sanction.

Is there a point though, whereby Putin is losing the battle, not only through economic sanctions but also through the supply of weapons and defence equipment to the Ukranian military, that he decides the west is already at war with him?

Don't get me wrong, I personally feel western governments have just about got this right and done everything they realistically could within the parameters at play, but at the same time that takes us perilously close to 'too much', doesn't it? The Russian bear needs poking, but at the same time it makes me more than a little anxious that it may awaken in a foul mood.

Indeed it is a big worry that we have already declared economic war on Russia and this could lead to a military war response from them (outside of Ukraine).

 

[herecomesaregular]

Yes, I saw that from Medvedev. Russians do like to make threats don't they? That's how they operate. Unnerve the opposition. Put them on the back foot. Make them wonder what your next move is. As we have seen in Ukraine, the Russian war machine is not all that though, is it? I mean, it's pretty basic stuff to ensure your troops are well fed, and your vehicles are well maintained and refuelled easily, isn't it? The reality is the product of decades of corruption, theft, low pay and low morale.

Whether or not the Russian bear needs poking, I think Ursula von der Leyen is doing an excellent job of declawing it. Claw by claw.

One word: nukes

 

[Farehamseagull]

I remember telling Chelsea friends decades ago that they had blood on their hands, no Russian gets that wealthy without many people paying. Of course none cared. Complicity exists at every level. Probably the chief reason amongst many why I’ve always despised Chelsea.

Yep. Russian sports washing has been incredibly successful over the past 20 years - see also, Gazprom, the World Cup, Winter Olympics etc.

 

[vegster]

https://youtu.be/J_Yo8Uhe6Dw

You have to admire their courage.

 

[Happy Exile]

Seems China had 'liaised' with Russia over the timing of the invasion and the winter Olympics...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/us/politics/russia-ukraine-china.html

Depending on your tolerance for reading thoroughly depressing analysis this chap has an interesting breakdown of the China / Russia relationship https://eand.co/is-the-world-going-back-to-war-a0a086c43f96

 

[Eric the meek]

One word: nukes

Then you are advocating surrender. To the one who shouts the loudest.

Stand firm.

I cannot tell you how impressed I am with 1) Zelensky and 2) Ursula von der Leyen.

They are facing down the Russian bear. The bullying. The strong arm tactics.

You can do it as well.