[Football] Promotion Calculator

[JC Footy Genius]

If you put in the 'right' data and allow for alignment of the planets, wind direction and lucky mascots it works out we're finishing Champions 4 points clear of 2nd .... so all's good

 

[FatSuperman]

When you say more accurate, do you mean shots on target, rather than goals? As MC haven't scored as many as Leicester or Spurs.

It meant fewer shots needed per goal. In the ranking this chap uses, I don't think they consider off target shots at all.

 

[ipad1977]

That's certainly how their season has been, but that doesn't mean it will continue to be. Opposing managers will of course have noticed it, and they'll look at how the games have played out - is it that better teams have been more open against them and suffered, while weaker teams have got men behind the ball, which has worked? Whatever it is I'm sure managers will be looking at it and how they set up to get the most from their game against 'boro.

For the remaining games I'd willingly bet that 'boro get more points from the lower half of their opponents than the top half. If your logic was really right, they'll walk the premier league next season.

The argument for managers of upper teams playing like the fodder did against Boro to gain results only goes so far; by the time Boro played Burnley, Brighton and Derby (second time around for the latter) for example they had already come away with just a point at Preston who were round the bottom of the league when played and Bristol City the basement club had yielded nothing whatsoever for them, to name just two games in which Boro's main threat had been nullified. Undoubtably Clement, Hughton and Ginge had taken this into account, but they still came away with nothing, Boro's aggregate score reading 6 nil from those games. I would suggest this is because the teams at the bottom have a main game plan that makes use of them playing like a bunch of cloggers week in, week out and as such will be fairly accomplished in that limited method, whereas for the teams at the top to put their normal game on hold for one match and try to play like relegation fodder do will have been too much of a change to adapt to in such a short space of time.

Here's a prediction I made on the Boro forum, 3 games ago, using this formula. So far I'm a point out, but the general trend is right, granted there are always elements of unpredictability in football and plenty of them. Karanka's fallout behind the scenes being a case in point. But even if he had not had that spat with the players and Agnew not been stuck between a rock and a hard place running the show against Charlton I still tipped Boro to do no more than draw against the beleaguered Addicks (call it the Boro Way if you will) and I'm closest on that forum to the actual results from the dozen or so who had a pop at it.

----------------

34-----Boro v Wolves--------13th----------3
35-----Roth'm v Boro--------22nd----------0
36-----Charlton v Boro-------24th----------1
37-----Boro v Hull-------------2nd-----------3
38-----QPR v Boro------------11th-----------0
39-----Boro v H'Field---------17th----------3
40-----Boro v Preston--------10th----------3
41-----Boro v Reading-------12th----------3
42-----Bolton v Boro---------23rd----------0
43-----Burnley v Boro---------1st-----------1
44-----Boro v Ipswich---------9th-----------3
45-----B'Ham v Boro----------8th-----------3
46-----Boro v Brighton-------4th-----------3

Total 89 points.

---------------

If the rest of the results follow my prediction then Boro will finish on 88 points. The result I felt was most unpredictable out of those was actually the away game against Brum immediately before the Brighton curtain-closer as it would depend a lot on whether Brum were still in the hunt for the Playoffs as to how they set out and whether either side would 'settle for a point'.

 

[Triggaaar]

For the remaining games I'd willingly bet that 'boro get more points from the lower half of their opponents than the top half.

The argument for managers of upper teams playing like the fodder did against Boro to gain results only goes so far; by the time Boro played Burnley, Brighton and Derby (second time around for the latter) for example they had already come away with just a point at Preston

Do you want to bet?

 

[ipad1977]

Do you want to bet?

I'm not a gambling man at least not unless the odds are stacked very heavily in my favour, slight margins don't cut it for me.

Only time I do bet is at a well attended race meet where there's several bookies within close proximity of each other so I can quickly calculate odds and place different bets with different bookies resulting in my chances of winning being ridiculously high.

This whole prediction thing I enjoy doing as I can find stats fascinating (sadly enough) but I mainly earn money the old-fashioned way through graft.

 

[aolstudios]

Now,that's better...

1 Burnley 46 +35 91
2 Brighton 46 +19 87
3 Middlesbrough 46 +21 84
4 Hull 46 +28 79
5 Sheff Wed 46 +19 76
6 Ipswich 46 +3 75

 

[perseus]

Done it again. Still got us winning at Boro needed (as well as all five home games and beating MK Dons) to go up automatically. Burnley very close to upsetting even that.

Just hope we can take that far.

Hull and Boro very narrow margins over Burnley and Brighton.

 

[sparkie]

89 points is the magic number currently. Today is a good chance to get 3 of them.

 

[moggy]

Fail to win today and I would surmise our chances of automatic promotion are all but gone

 

[Rugrat]

1 slip up by Hull
No slip ups by us
a draw at Boro .... job done

 

[sparkie]

1 slip up by Hull
No slip ups by us
a draw at Boro .... job done

View attachment 73144

You have 3 points from the games v Burnley, Birmingham and Forest. This is reasonable, but it is also where we need more.

I am convinced that if we are 2nd after Forest, we'll finish in the top 2.

 

[Rugrat]

You have 3 points from the games v Burnley, Birmingham and Forest. This is reasonable, but it is also where we need more.

I am convinced that if we are 2nd after Forest, we'll finish in the top 2.

Reckon you're right on all counts. It would be so easy to change one of those 1's or 0's to 3's but it would spoil the excitement

I do think we've got a bit more insurance though, 3 draws and a loss vs Boro 2 draws 2 losses and Hull 3 draws ... it might be those games that are the pivotal ones?

 

[The Birdman]

Take it one game at a time starting today must win game,confidence is a very important and now the time to have a good run.

 

[darkwolf666]

Take it one game at a time starting today must win game,confidence is a very important and now the time to have a good run.

This. Spot on...

 

[Steve Foster]

Close margins, but I have the final table as:

Burnley 90
Middlesbrough 88
Hull 86
BHA 85
Derby 80
Sheffield W 76

.... I have assumed that we lose against Burnley, though!

 

[origigull]

Did anyone calculate that Burnley would draw 1-1 at home today?

 

[darkwolf666]

Did anyone calculate that Burnley would draw 1-1 at home today?

Wouldn't have thought so, I know I didn't. Nor did I calculate Boro to lose to Charlton and Rotherham

 

[Hugo Rune]

My preference is always for fixtures against midtable, promoted or relegated sides in the run in. Also sides resting players for play-offs are good to face as we found out against Boro last season.

 

[origigull]

Wouldn't have thought so, I know I didn't. Nor did I calculate Boro to lose to Charlton and Rotherham

Every team will get the jitters in the run-in and drop points that seem on paper certs for 3 points. Lets hope BHA buck the trend and win all ours.

 

[darkwolf666]

Every team will get the jitters in the run-in and drop points that seem on paper certs for 3 points. Lets hope BHA buck the trend and win all ours.

This, with brass knobs on!