[Football] Promotion Calculator

[perseus]

I did it three times, with reality kicking in more each time, and the calculator doing everyone else's results, but even being devils advocate I've got us 2nd on 86 a point ahead of Hull with Boro winning the League by two points on the last day.

I think I'll try it this way, before the pub tonight and afterwards to see of there is any difference.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Too early for predictors.

Just give the others at the top 2 points per game, and then work out what we need, and if we can get there from that.

Middlesbrough 90
Burnley 89
Hull 88


So, 90 takes us up ( 9 wins from 12 ).


It'll be wonderful to get 4 of the 9 wins before Easter.

 

[Gregory2Smith1]

can't understand people coming on here saying it's too early for prédictions

one game at a time,like real football managers,blah,blah,blah

just play the bloody game

 

[Triggaaar]

I think 8 wins will be enough , and avoid defeat against burnley !

That's a lot of wins with 12 games left, particularly when you look at the opposition. That would also be more than 2 points a game which isn't easy, no team has done it so far this season.

The battle is becoming more and more psychological and Boro and Hull are already beginning to bottle it.

Boro have lost more points that they should, they have bottled it a bit (but are still right in the mix). Hull have been doing fine and if you watched last night you wouldn't call that bottling it.

 

[symyjym]

If we go by the form of the last 5 games of the top 4 clubs, we should come second. However, form doesn't mean anything.

 

[Petee]

Had us finishing 5th behind Hull, Burnley, Boro and Derby.

Oops

 

[LlcoolJ]

I only put our results in and we won the league by three points. But Derby were third and Hull fifth so it's clearly a load of crap.

 

[perseus]

I only put our results in and we won the league by three points. But Derby were third and Hull fifth so it's clearly a load of crap.

Second time around, I did this way and we won at a canter. But I have us winning five of the six home games, which I think we wil have to do. And not losing the Burnley one.

 

[Danny-Boy]

View attachment 72818

Can't see 41 points being enough to keep a side up, usually they need 45 or more. In which case some of the other totals are overstated.

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

Pos Team P GD Pts
1 Burnley 46 +40 95
2 Middlesbrough 46 +40 95
3 Hull 46 +39 93
4 Brighton 46 +22 86
5 Derby 46 +27 84
6 Sheff Wed 46 +28 81
7 Ipswich 46 +7 76
8 Cardiff 46 +11 75
9 Birmingham 46 +5 68
10 Nott'm Forest 46 +9 67
11 Leeds 46 +0 65
12 QPR 46 +4 64
13 Blackburn 46 +4 62
14 Reading 46 -1 59
15 Wolverhampton 46 -12 55
16 Huddersfield 46 -6 53
17 Preston 46 -15 52
18 Fulham 46 -6 51
19 Brentford 46 -20 48
20 Bristol City 46 -34 42
21 MK Dons 46 -28 40
22 Bolton 46 -29 36
23 Rotherham 46 -35 30
24 Charlton 46 -50 29

 

[Normski1989]

Boro have lost more points that they should, they have bottled it a bit (but are still right in the mix). Hull have been doing fine and if you watched last night you wouldn't call that bottling it.

Boro are still in the mix because they built a good lead a few months ago. Their current form is poor though.

I did watch the game last night and Hull looked like they were trying hard, but still made a few silly mistakes. Including one that lead to the goal. Hulls defenders are player well but their strikers have completely bottled it. They've scored three goals in six games... hardly the sign of an in form side. Hitting the woodwork isn't going to cut it. No side in the top four can afford a sticky patch now, and Hull are definitely it a little one when it comes to scoring. You can't win without scoring and 0-0 draws aren't going to be enough.

 

[perseus]

Can't see 41 points being enough to keep a side up, usually they need 45 or more. In which case some of the other totals are overstated.

Revised

 

[Peter Grummit]

Having had a play around with the calculator there is one clear conclusion.

The simulator is bolloc*s.

If you don't input any forecasts and leave it to 'recent form' then we finish 3rd with 79 points, EIGHT behind Hull in 2nd.

Whoever said: "assume everyone else averages 2 points per game, how many will we need?" has the right idea. We would need 90, which is 9 wins from 12 games. I'll buy that.

Only when we are down to the last 3-4 games is the 'predict all results' approach of any value in my view.

PG

 

[Don Quixote]

Hull, Brighton and Burnley to go up.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Mine


1 Hull 46 +33 91
2 Burnley 46 +36 87
3 Brighton 46 +29 87
4 Middlesbrough 46 +33 86
5 Derby 46 +16 82
6 Sheff Wed 46 +17 70

 

[perseus]

I've got Boro beating Wolves tonight. If they lose it might go down to the last game of the 46.

I think the calculator shows that Boro have got to drop three points when it is least expected of them. Boro home to Wolves would be a typical match. If Wolves score first, I still think Boro will win, or with bad luck only draw. We I am hoping for is if Boro score first and lose.

We've still got to beat Burnley at home.

I don't think it will teams bottling it, but the Championship throws up teams with styles inimical to promotions teams. Away to Birmingham is one such fixture. I have put us down as a loss up there. I think I put Preston NE down a loss as well. But I have us beating Burnley and Sheff Weds.

 

[throbinson]

It's quite simple really, win all our remaining games are we are up......simple

 

[perseus]

It's quite simple really, win all our remaining games are we are up......simple

Yep that works now (it didn't last week). If we win all our games (99 pts) and the other teams win all theirs except when playing each other and they draw, we win the League by 3 pts and 5 pts ahead of second. . Birmingham included.

Take Birmingham out of the calculation and we are still 3 points clear but Hull, Burnley and Boro would all be on 96 pts and we would have to win at Boro in the last game.

Still it looks like we need Boro and Hull to drop points unexpectently and we need to beat Burnley, whilst winning our expected games (including Derby and Sheff Weds) without slip-ups. That's why we are out at 2/1 to get promotion. Boro and Hull are odds on.

 

[pasty]

No predictions from me until at least 5pm on Saturday April 2nd.

 

[Triggaaar]

Revised

You think Burnley will finish level with Derby on 81 points! That's madness. Burnley are the in-form team, have a decent run-in and are 8 points ahead of a Derby team that are in free-fall and have just got rid of their manager.

And 85 points won't be enough for 2nd.