[Albion] Paths to Europe - Is this correct?

[Mustafa II]

So there is an unlikely scenario where Man Utd & Chelsea win the Europa League and Champions League respectively, while both finishing outside the top 4, resulting in only the top 3 qualifying for the Champions League... but I'll ignore that for now.

Otherwise it'll be:

- Top four qualify for Champions League

- 5th place qualifies for Europa League

- FA Cup winner OR 6th place team, depending if winner has already qualified for Europe, qualifies for Europa League

- As Man Utd have won the League Cup and are likely to qualify for Europe, then 6th or 7th place teams (depending on FA Cup winner) will qualify for the Europa Conference.


So in summary,

- WInning the FA Cup would qualify us for the Europa League regardless of league position.

- Finishing 5th guarantees a Europa League spot in all likely scenarios.

- Finishing 6th would qualify us for Europa League, unless Sheffield United win the FA Cup, in which case it would qualify us for Europa Conference (unless Man Utd fall outout of top 5 as well)

- Finishing 7th would qualify us for Europa Conference, unless Man Utd fail to win FA Cup AND drop out of top 6, or Sheffield Utd win the FA Cup.


Think I've got my head round it anyway. Is this all correct??

 

[Audax]

But with just an outside chance, that if results go really favourably, we could still just nick 4th place! Keep the faith. UTA.

Looking at the table ahead of tonight's matches, Spurs should be very nervous about not just Newcastle but also us. We have 3 games in hand compared to them, and sit 7 points behind. So we're in range. Our game at their place is a massive 6 pointer as things stand right now - there's the potential it puts us in pole position to finish top 5.

I would have preferred Man U had beaten Newcastle on the weekend and put the latter back on the back foot again, and kept them a bit more in-range. But Man U losing isn't terrible, as it opens up a slim possibility of 3rd.

To get 3rd: we need to find an extra 4 points on both Man U and Newcastle. Our current GD is better than both, so if we maintain that lead and can find those 4 points 3rd place is in reach. We have a home game against Man U - big opportunity to put the pressure on them by winning that. And we go away to Newcastle, so again there's the opportunity.

To get 5th: as it stands, the target is Spurs. 7 points behind, but 3 games in hand, and we still play them. Might just be a little disappointed if we don't beat them from here.

Where we finish this season could theoretically hang on getting results from 5 key matches:

Away to Spurs (win that, we're very much in the hunt to overtake them - arguably even favourites to beat them?)
Away to Newcastle (win that, and with other positive results we're in the hunt to overtake if they drop points)
Home to Man U (win that, and with other positive results we're in the hunt if they drop points)
Away to Arsenal
Home to Man C

The rest of our matches are potential banana skins, but IMO those games we should be going into as favourites (watch us lose them all now I've said it). Next 4 games, we take home 12 points with 4 strong wins, and those teams immediately above us (esp Spurs) will be looking at Brighton as a top 4 finish rival.

Looking at rivals' run ins:

Man U's looks relatively easy. Potentially most difficult games are Spurs, Brentford, Fulham (plus us).
Newcastle have Brentford, Spurs, Arsenal as their riskiest 3 (plus us).
Spurs have Newcastle, Man U, Liverpool, Brentford (plus us).

 

[ConfusedGloryHunter]

Don’t THINK that’s right - @Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo will confirm…

No it is not. West Ham would be given an europa league spot in addition to the basic English allotment due to them finishing outside the top 6. 7th in the league still gets conference unless manure are 8th or lower.

 

[pure_white]

fvck sake i need some paracetamol after reading this thread..... cant the teams above us all get points deducted for something or another and we win the league and the FA cup and we what qualify twice for Europe? I'll take that!

 

[Clive Walker]

The exception is Leeds who don’t qualify for Europe. Europe qualifies for Leeds.