[News] Nigel Farage and Reform

[Machiavelli]

Blair in 1997 is a good point of reference. Campbell’s media savvy I’m sure counted for a lot.

Just take the campaign’s anthem - things will only get better. I remember that time period as the most positive the country has been in my lifetime.

Really interesting posts.
But I'm struggling a little on the comparison and the 24/25 positivity angle. If the argument is that they went too heavy on the black hole, depressive stuff, then agreed. But they could have done that without being terribly positive about things. That would leave them open to misleading the public, rhetoric vs reality gap, etc.
The public finances are in a really bad shape. I really want them to get it by taxing assets on the asset-rich, taxing conspicuous consumption, and trawling back funds that are offshored by the rich. But none of that's easy. All of it would be much easier in the EU.
Agree about Campbell. He was very talented. Not unlike, dare I say it, Cummins.

 

[nicko31]

But less votes in 2024 , LD 3,519,214 V RF 4,117,610

Oh, I'll take it all back. Full justified then

 

[Guinness Boy]

Well, if the extra civil servants are nurses and police officers and prison officers, then we can simply put them back into the hospitals or police stations and prisons and cut the civil service while simultaneously adding staff to those forces and services.

Do you honestly believe that the government employs only half a million people? The civil service is basically the admin staff, administering all those people like nurses and police officers and prison officers. Nurses and police officers and prison officers are not civil servants.

If you do want to lock up career criminals and cut down on shoplifting - and I suspect a lot of people do - then yes, blame the politicians who have not built prisons and have not hired enough police. But to turn it round to suggest that Reform are the bad guys for having those ambitions - that's taking partisanship too far, surely. Cutting crime has to be an ambition for all parties.

Police officers may not be commonly thought of as civil servants but they are funded by Government. Prison Officers are civil servants. And, if you need more of both then surely the administration of them needs to increase in lockstep? Or do you think both of those professions should be spending their days on paperwork?

 

[chip]

As of December 2024, there were 514,395 FTE civil servants – 635 (0.1%) fewer than in the previous quarter (Q3 2024). This is only the second quarter in which the civil service has shrunk since the EU referendum (Q2 2016). There are still 11,950 (2.4%) more civil servants than a year ago.  https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/civil-service-staff-numbers

Our definition includes the staff of the Scottish and Welsh devolved governments, but not the staff of the Northern Ireland Civil Service, which is administratively distinct. We also include officials working in the three Whitehall-based territorial offices that manage the UK’s relationship with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

In this way, civil servants are defined much more narrowly than public sector workers: police, teachers, NHS staff, members of the armed forces and local government officers are not counted as civil servants.

 

[SouthSaxon]

Really interesting posts.
But I'm struggling a little on the comparison and the 24/25 positivity angle. If the argument is that they went too heavy on the black hole, depressive stuff, then agreed. But they could have done that without being terribly positive about things. That would leave them open to misleading the public, rhetoric vs reality gap, etc.
The public finances are in a really bad shape. I really want them to get it by taxing assets on the asset-rich, taxing conspicuous consumption, and trawling back funds that are offshored by the rich. But none of that's easy. All of it would be much easier in the EU.
Agree about Campbell. He was very talented. Not unlike, dare I say it, Cummins.

Agree broadly. The point about Blair’s Labour is somewhat different - I’m not suggesting Starmer should have been dancing to the latest popular beat combo or anything. Blair inherited a far healthier economy.

Essentially, my view on this government is that it was so obvious they were inheriting a mess that they didn’t need to double down on it with the black hole stuff.

If they’d come out and said, “things are a bit worse than we’d imagined but we’re here to fix this stuff and improve your living standards. It’ll take some time, but we’re getting on with it” I think most voters would have accepted that.

Instead they said “things are far worse than we anticipated and to fix this, your living standards are going to have to get worse for you before they get better.”

It sounded far too much like getting the excuses in early, at best, or a betrayal of the “change” message they campaigned on.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Police officers may not be commonly thought of as civil servants but they are funded by Government. Prison Officers are civil servants. And, if you need more of both then surely the administration of them needs to increase in lockstep? Or do you think both of those professions should be spending their days on paperwork?

The rest of us are talking about the increase in the number of civil servants from 390k to 510k. Those numbers do not include everyone who works for the NHS, for the police and prisons, for the army navy & air force, in schools, etc etc etc. They don't include police support staff, or police admin staff, or prison admin staff, or any of that sort of job.

 

[Guinness Boy]

The rest of us are talking about the increase in the number of civil servants from 390k to 510k. Those numbers do not include everyone who works for the NHS, for the police and prisons, for the army navy & air force, in schools, etc etc etc. They don't include police support staff, or police admin staff, or prison admin staff, or any of that sort of job.

What do they include, how much are they being paid, what are they doing and which ones are "waste"?

Prison officers ARE civil servants, the whole prison service is. Look it up.

Do you want frontline staff doing paper work or what?

 

[SouthSaxon]

To some extent, it’s a distraction. Reform’s policy isn’t to reduce the number of civil servants, it’s to save £5 in every £100 spent.

It’s a blanket 5% spending cut dressed up as a war on waste.

I’m not doubting that wasted spending occurs, of course it does. My contention is that this policy lacks substance and is not what it’s made out to be.

To work out what waste exists would require in-depth auditing that will itself cost millions. Reform hasn’t done that, it’s just proposed a 5% cut and would, presumably, leave it to each department to decide where to make those savings.

 

[jackalbion]

Glad people are voting for change by voting for another privately educated banker. Jesus wept if these idiots run the country, we’ll all be f*cked even more than we currently are, but don’t worry we voted for change.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Well, exactly.

In his head they're all working from home on huge salaries on Net Zero, DEI projects, HR and duplicate middle management roles.

In reality they may well be dealing with the additional internal red tape caused by Brexit, they may be police officers, prison officers or nurses or they may be planning so that next time there's a pandemic we don't completely stitch up our police officers, prison officers and nurses.

It's the typical failure to understand the downstream consequences of populism.

"We must leave the EU". Well, in that case you'll need to write equivalent laws and processes here.
"We must bang up these illegals / career criminals". Well, in that case you need more prisons which will need planning, building and staffing.
"We must stop this shoplifting epidemic". So you'll need to redraft some legislation and hire more coppers then.

Thanks for letting me know about the prison officers being civil servants. so to go back to your original point, the extra civil servants are not working as police officers, prison officers, or nurses because police officers and nurses are not civil servants in that sense of the word, and the number of prison officers hasn't increased.

 

[Blues Guitarist]

What do they include, how much are they being paid, what are they doing and which ones are "waste"?

The waste are the ones now doing jobs that used to be done by the EU.

 

[WATFORD zero]

What are the extra 120,000 civil servants appointed since 2016, actually doing?

I can't wait to see you apply your 'I don't know what they do, so we should cut them' policy to the NHS, Care industry, Emergency services, Education and the rest of the public sector.

It's almost as well thought through as Farage's finger in the air cut £5 from every £100 policy

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Glad people are voting for change by voting for another privately educated banker. Jesus wept if these idiots run the country, we’ll all be f*cked even more than we currently are, but don’t worry we voted for change.

That sums it up, in a nutshell.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I think the media are the problem. Many people see headlines but don't read the content or the context.

The BBC, are a lot to blame, for platforming Nigel Farage so regularly. Boris Johnson put his own man in charge.

LibDem and Green MPs are very rarely asked to appear on programmes whether that be Question Time nor Current Affairs.

These Question Time most appearance figures are from 18 months ago, but I can't imagine many of them (with the same exception) making more appearances since

Every other frequently appearing Question time guest (including many far less frequent than him) had managed to make those appearances as a result of serving over 30 years as a democratically elected member of the house of commons. Whilst he's managed to appear 36 times even before he was elected to Westminster for the first 6 months before these figures. Still, i'm sure there's an explanation

This is also an interesting list of top appearances by 'non politicians'

Name	Appearances	Publication
Isabel Oakeshott	13	Various (Spectator, Daily Mail, GB News, Talk TV)
Julia Hartley-Brewer	13	Various (Spectator, Telegraph, Talk Radio/Talk TV)
Kate Andrews	12	IEA/Spectator
Tim Stanley	12	Telegraph/Spectator
Camilla Tominey	10	Express/Telegraph/Spectator
Anne McElvoy	8	Economist/Politico
Theo Paphitis	8	N/A businessman
Fraser Nelson	7	Spectator/Telegraph
Melanie Phillips	7	The Times
Merryn Somerset Webb	7	Money Week
Peter Hitchens	7	Mail on Sunday/Spectator
Piers Morgan	7	(Various ITV, Talk TV, Daily Mail)
Zanny Minton Beddoes	7	The Economist

I'm sure that wouldn't be the same Isabel Oakeshott who is the partner of Reform's 2nd in command, Richard Tice. There's probably an explanation for that too

 

[dsr-burnley]

These Question Time most appearance figures are from 18 months ago, but I can't imagine many of them (with the same exception) making more appearances since

View attachment 201824
Every other frequently appearing Question time guest (including many far less frequent than him) had managed to make those appearances as a result of serving over 30 years as a democratically elected member of the house of commons. Whilst he's managed to appear 36 times even before he was elected to Westminster for the first 6 months before these figures. Still, i'm sure there's an explanation

Possibly the BBC ascribes significance to the Euro elections too, in which Farage twice led the party that won the most votes and seats in the UK.

Perhaps you ought to argue about Liberal bias as well. No fewer than three Liberal leaders are on the list of the top 9 panellists, compared with none at all for the Tories or Labour. Don't you think it might be that there is a smaller pool of talent to pick from in the minor parties so the same faces appear again and again?

 

[WATFORD zero]

Possibly the BBC ascribes significance to the Euro elections too, in which Farage twice led the party that won the most votes and seats in the UK.

Perhaps you ought to argue about Liberal bias as well. No fewer than three Liberal leaders are on the list of the top 9 panellists, compared with none at all for the Tories or Labour. Don't you think it might be that there is a smaller pool of talent to pick from in the minor parties so the same faces appear again and again?

I've just shown the top 9. There are loads more including all the major figures from all parties that have made multiple appearances. The thing you seem to have missed or ignored, is that they have all (with the exception of 1) served as elected members of the British Parliament for over 30 years to get to those sort of numbers of appearances

 

[Thunder Bolt]

These Question Time most appearance figures are from 18 months ago, but I can't imagine many of them (with the same exception) making more appearances since

View attachment 201824
Every other frequently appearing Question time guest (including many far less frequent than him) had managed to make those appearances as a result of serving over 30 years as a democratically elected member of the house of commons. Whilst he's managed to appear 36 times even before he was elected to Westminster for the first 6 months before these figures. Still, i'm sure there's an explanation

This is also an interesting list of top appearances by 'non politicians'

Name	Appearances	Publication
Isabel Oakeshott	13	Various (Spectator, Daily Mail, GB News, Talk TV)
Julia Hartley-Brewer	13	Various (Spectator, Telegraph, Talk Radio/Talk TV)
Kate Andrews	12	IEA/Spectator
Tim Stanley	12	Telegraph/Spectator
Camilla Tominey	10	Express/Telegraph/Spectator
Anne McElvoy	8	Economist/Politico
Theo Paphitis	8	N/A businessman
Fraser Nelson	7	Spectator/Telegraph
Melanie Phillips	7	The Times
Merryn Somerset Webb	7	Money Week
Peter Hitchens	7	Mail on Sunday/Spectator
Piers Morgan	7	(Various ITV, Talk TV, Daily Mail)
Zanny Minton Beddoes	7	The Economist

I'm sure that wouldn't be the same Isabel Oakeshott who is the partner of Reform's 2nd in command, Richard Tice. There's probably an explanation for that too

18 months ago? Shirley Williams died in 2021, Paddy Ashdown in 2018, etc

 

[WATFORD zero]

18 months ago? Shirley Williams died in 2021, Paddy Ashdown in 2018, etc

The figures were the top 9 appearances as of 18 months ago. Funnily enough, only 1 has increased their appearances since and I can't be arsed to look it up again

 

[AlbionBro]

I don’t. I thought he would do a good job, but he hasn’t.
I voted LibDems btw, and haven’t voted Labour for over 25 years, just in case you thought I was a ‘looney leftie’.

I see sorry maybe I am mixing you up with someone else, but Keir is an off the scale looney, not sure if he is left, right or whatever. I do think Farage is a populist where as Starmer is and un-populist!

 

[Simster]

I think you are sounding a bit like Keir.
Labour screwed up badly putting in Keir, he clearly has less morals than the Tories. Does anyone in the UK still trust this man? He has to go for labour to get back in again, why he hasn't stepped a side yet?

I don't doubt SKS is doing a bad job - he's been massively underwhelming. But "less morals than the Tories"? Really? It's like 14 years of utter shit and copious numbers of lies never happened.

I voted Labour, but they have been feeble, so unless I have to vote tactically to keep Reform out I'll probably be going back to LibDem.