[Albion] Next five games might make or "break" the season

[Swansman]

West Ham, Leeds, Crystal Palace, Brentford and Bournemouth coming up* in the league. Five games that on paper looks "easy" - maybe with the exception of Brentford - before some more difficult fixtures against the big six. First one of those is against Chelsea and could perhaps be included in the "easy" games but I suspect that they, with or without Potter, should be a lot better by mid April.

Anything above 9-10 points from these five coming games and grabbing one of the last spots for Europe looks like a decent possibility. Less than that and it will probably just be a fight to stay in top 10. Which isn't bad obviously but might not feel great after the strong first half of the season.

So what do we think?

My guess:
West Ham - 3 points
Leeds - 3 points
Crystal Palace - 1 point
Brentford - 1 point
Bournemouth - 3 points

= 11 points, putting the club on 46 points with 11 games to go and it would by then almost be criminal not to break last seasons record of 52 points. Whether it will be enough to get the around 60 points needed for Europe is another question, but certainly gives the club a good chance of doing that.

*unless there's some fixture rearrangements I'm missing out on, difficult to keep track

 

[Guinness Boy]

All five games are "winnable" but there will be a lot on the Brentford match, Palace is a derby, Leeds have a new coach and WHU have Ings so these are also losable. And we'll need to play better against Muff.

I can honestly see us doing quite disappointingly in these games and then taking unexpected points from the likes of Spurs, Chelsea and United later in the season. It seems to be how we roll.

 

[LamieRobertson]

One game at a time an all that

 

[Bozza]

All five games are "winnable" but there will be a lot on the Brentford match, Palace is a derby, Leeds have a new coach and WHU have Ings so these are also losable. And we'll need to play better against Muff.

I can honestly see us doing quite disappointingly in these games and then taking unexpected points from the likes of Spurs, Chelsea and United later in the season. It seems to be how we roll.

Pretty much how I feel.

Depending on your perspective, we've left anywhere from one to five points on the table over the last couple of games.

We need to get back to scoring the goals that our creativity merits.

 

[BadFish]

I'm concerned that goals are drying up and we've been worked out somewhat.

Hoping to be proven wrong here. A couple of goals tonight and 3 points will settle my nerves.

 

[Bozza]

I'm concerned that goals are drying up and we've been worked out somewhat.

Hoping to be proven wrong here. A couple of goals tonight and 3 points will settle my nerves.

I responded to @Arthur on the "we've been worked out" point on a thread earlier this week.

I simply don't believe that's the case. It's certainly true that teams now have better insight into De Zerbi Ball, and have adapted the way they play us to try and counter that. The way Fulham often sat off - not giving us the press we wanted - was an illustration of that.

But against Bournemouth, Palace and Fulham we created more than enough to win all three at a canter. If those sides had "worked us out" then we wouldn't have been carving them open repeatedly. It's not a sound tactic to give a side lots of chances and hope they fluff them repeatedly, particularly a side that has been so free-scoring.

So, yes, the goals have dried up a bit, but that's because we've returned to Potter-prolifigacy mode. We need to get back to converting some of the numerous chances we are creating.

 

[BadFish]

I responded to @Arthur on the "we've been worked out" point on a thread earlier this week.

I simply don't believe that's the case. It's certainly true that teams now have better insight into De Zerbi Ball, and have adapted the way they play us to try and counter that. The way Fulham often sat off - not giving us the press we wanted - was an illustration of that.

But against Bournemouth, Palace and Fulham we created more than enough to win all three at a canter. If those sides had "worked us out" then we wouldn't have been carving them open repeatedly. It's not a sound tactic to give a side lots of chances and hope they fluff them repeatedly, particularly a side that has been so free-scoring.

So, yes, the goals have dried up a bit, but that's because we've returned to Potter-prolifigacy mode. We need to get back to converting some of the numerous chances we are creating.

Thank you, and you are probably right. My natural pessimism around football is usually best ignored.

 

[chickens]

Am currently sitting somewhere between Swansman and GB atm. My optimism that these should be winnable, tempered by a long history of dropping points in games we should win, and taking them emphatically in games we’re not (on paper) fancied for.

It’ll be listening on the wireless again today. Hoping we stuff ‘em.

 

[Icy Gull]

One game at a time an all that

I have a feeling of impending doom on the first of them!

 

[pasty]

......and WHU have Ings .....

First name I'll be looking for on their team sheet. Will be very happy if he's not on it!

 

[Guinness Boy]

Am currently sitting somewhere between Swansman and GB atm.

NOBODY wants that

 

[Swansman]

I responded to @Arthur on the "we've been worked out" point on a thread earlier this week.

I simply don't believe that's the case. It's certainly true that teams now have better insight into De Zerbi Ball, and have adapted the way they play us to try and counter that. The way Fulham often sat off - not giving us the press we wanted - was an illustration of that.

But against Bournemouth, Palace and Fulham we created more than enough to win all three at a canter. If those sides had "worked us out" then we wouldn't have been carving them open repeatedly. It's not a sound tactic to give a side lots of chances and hope they fluff them repeatedly, particularly a side that has been so free-scoring.

So, yes, the goals have dried up a bit, but that's because we've returned to Potter-prolifigacy mode. We need to get back to converting some of the numerous chances we are creating.

Kind of. Don't feel the team created enough against Bournemouth and Fulham, pretty poor performance in the first of those games and should be very happy with 3 points considering how many dangerous counters they had. Palace should arguably have been a 3-0 win but that's largely been the case twice a year since 2019.

I do agree its not really a case of other teams "working it out" though. In almost every game, any team knows pretty much exactly what they're facing. That information will give you a couple of percent increased chance of getting something out of it, but its not a major factor. IMHO the main reason for the so-so results recently has been the absence of playmakers Colwill and Lallana, and the unconvincing thingie with playing the best defensive playmaker (Ali Mac) as the number 10 while playing the best non-Lallana number 10 (Gross) as defensive playmaker. These issues has created a situation where the front three gets less quality opportunities to work with.

 

[Bozza]

Kind of. Don't feel the team created enough against Bournemouth and Fulham, pretty poor performance in the first of those games and should be very happy with 3 points considering how many dangerous counters they had. Palace should arguably have been a 3-0 win but that's largely been the case twice a year since 2019.

I do agree its not really a case of other teams "working it out" though. In almost every game, any team knows pretty much exactly what they're facing. That information will give you a couple of percent increased chance of getting something out of it, but its not a major factor. IMHO the main reason for the so-so results recently has been the absence of playmakers Colwill and Lallana, and the unconvincing thingie with playing the best defensive playmaker (Ali Mac) as the number 10 while playing the best non-Lallana number 10 (Gross) as defensive playmaker. These issues has created a situation where the front three gets less quality opportunities to work with.

Yeah, I did start another bit about the impact of injuries, but couldn't be arsed to finish it off.

 

[Swansman]

All five games are "winnable" but there will be a lot on the Brentford match, Palace is a derby, Leeds have a new coach and WHU have Ings so these are also losable. And we'll need to play better against Muff.

I can honestly see us doing quite disappointingly in these games and then taking unexpected points from the likes of Spurs, Chelsea and United later in the season. It seems to be how we roll.

A grahampotterian season I would agree but I think f***ing over the poorer teams is the new tune, despite the results against Chelsea (who are shite) and Liverpool (also shite) obviously being nice. But the games against top 10 under De Zerbi has (so far) not really indicated that Brighton will have a whole lot of fun against these type of opponents this season.

Arguably a case of the defensively incredibly sound Cucurella (sold) and Veltman (not always playing) being replaced by the more attack minded Pervis and Gross/Lamptey. The spaces between central defenders and full backs are very real and the best teams are great at abusing that weakness.

 

[Guinness Boy]

A grahampotterian season I would agree but I think f***ing over the poorer teams is the new tune, despite the results against Chelsea (who are shite) and Liverpool (also shite) obviously being nice. But the games against top 10 under De Zerbi has (so far) not really indicated that Brighton will have a whole lot of fun against these type of opponents this season.

Arguably a case of the defensively incredibly sound Cucurella (sold) and Veltman (not always playing) being replaced by the more attack minded Pervis and Gross/Lamptey. The spaces between central defenders and full backs are very real and the best teams are great at abusing that weakness.

Apart from beating Arsenal away.

 

[Swansman]

Apart from beating Arsenal away.

Beating the Arsenal team that started with Hein (0 PL starts), Holding (0), Soares (0 P), Elneny (1), Lokonga (2), Marquinhos (0), Nelson (0), Vieira (1) is very different from beating Arsenal playing with actual Premier League players.

 

[The Fits]

We need our big hitters to be turning up every game here on in, and we need to make sure we take our chances. Sounds obvious but both of those things have slightly dropped off.

 

[Comrade Sam]

Genuinely not concerned as it's just living fantasy football at the moment. We can win them all, but might not!

 

[The Grockle]

All games winnable but we could also come out of those games playing very well but only picking up a few points. I'd be happy with 7 points to be honest

 

[Icy Gull]

Genuinely not concerned as it's just living fantasy football at the moment. We can win them all, but might not!

Me too, I have dreams but as long as I am entertained and we are not fecked over by VAR/officials I’ll take whatever comes, accepting that we may fall away.