Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I don't come on the Covid threads much anymore. I'm a pharmacologist, not an immunologist, but I understand a bit.

Covid20, the new variant appears to be like the annual new flu. New virus, new vaccine needed.

The flu vac I take every year is not a sodding 'booster' (government spokesman on R5 a minute ago). It is a new vaccine.

South Africa have decide to not bother with the Astrazeneca vaccine. Why? Because it probably doesn't work on Covid 20.

Who knew?

Plenty did.

Brace yourselves, people.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I don't come on the Covid threads much anymore. I'm a pharmacologist, not an immunologist, but I understand a bit.

Covid20, the new variant appears to be like the annual new flu. New virus, new vaccine needed.

The flu vac I take every year is not a sodding 'booster' (government spokesman on R5 a minute ago). It is a new vaccine.

South Africa have decide to not bother with the Astrazeneca vaccine. Why? Because it probably doesn't work on Covid 20.

Who knew?

Plenty did.

Brace yourselves, people.

If this is correct, then what?

Lockdowns forever and ever with each mutation that comes out

 

[beorhthelm]

South Africa have decide to not bother with the Astrazeneca vaccine. Why? Because it probably doesn't work on Covid 20.

Who knew?

Plenty did.

what do you mean? how could anyone know until trials done?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

what do you mean? how could anyone know until trials done?

Data are emerging according to an HMG person on R5 today.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

what do you mean? how could anyone know until trials done?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news...zeneca-jab-due-to-limited-protection-12211970

 

[Poojah]

My wife’s entire immediate family (mum dad and two sisters) have tested positive. Her mum and sisters run a childminding business from her mum’s house, and most of the nippers they look after have also tested positive. I’m not sure why nurseries etc are deemed safer than schools, but it’s not massively surprising.

Such is the randomness of this disease, her mum is quite poorly whilst her sisters (late twenties / early thirties) have no symptoms at all. Certainly the old adage of “do you even know anyone that’s had it?” is wearing a bit thin. My best mate, in his forties, was ill enough to have an ambulance called but wasn’t taken in and has since recovered.

Stay safe, people.

 

[beorhthelm]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news...zeneca-jab-due-to-limited-protection-12211970

sure there's bad results coming out today. my question is who knew before the trials that this would be the case.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

If this is correct, then what?

Lockdowns forever and ever with each mutation that comes out

No, we will be fine once we can crank out the vaccine for the prevalant variant like we do every year with flu. 80% of the job was making the first vaccine. We have several now. So we must tweak them to match the new epitope. This takes a few months. Not forever. But not next Tuesday.

But we would be wise to batton down for another few months. This was bloody obvious to me before the new variants were mooted. It is a seasonal flu, most active in winter, and it mutates avidly. We knew most of that last May, and the seasonal aspect was confirmed by Oct/Nov this year, when infections took off everywhere getting colder.

We have not been 'following the science'. But I'm not specifically Boris bashing; in fact I suspect that across the world so-called scientific leaders and governments have been sniffing each other's bottoms, trying to exhort pleasing 'facts' on the one hand, and please, on the other. King's new clothes and all that.

We will get there, but beware the bullshit, gun jumping and the urge to 'go back to normal' before it's safe.

 

[Billy the Fish]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.da...ising-Rule-Six-Covid-cases-continue-fall.html

Hmmmmmmm

Think Tim Spector should keep some of these thoughts to himself. He's welcome to lock himself away for years, I'd rather take my chances with the virus than live like this forever.

 

[dsr-burnley]

No, we will be fine once we can crank out the vaccine for the prevalant variant like we do every year with flu. 80% of the job was making the first vaccine. We have several now. So we must tweak them to match the new epitope. This takes a few months. Not forever. But not next Tuesday.

But we would be wise to batton down for another few months. This was bloody obvious to me before the new variants were mooted. It is a seasonal flu, most active in winter, and it mutates avidly. We knew most of that last May, and the seasonal aspect was confirmed by Oct/Nov this year, when infections took off everywhere getting colder.

We have not been 'following the science'. But I'm not specifically Boris bashing; in fact I suspect that across the world so-called scientific leaders and governments have been sniffing each other's bottoms, trying to exhort pleasing 'facts' on the one hand, and please, on the other. King's new clothes and all that.

We will get there, but beware the bullshit, gun jumping and the urge to 'go back to normal' before it's safe.

So if new mutations come out every few months, and it takes a few months to tweak the virus, are we hoping that there might be a week or two between these "few months" periods when the pubs open before the next "few months" happens?

My town has a population of 18,000. If the average across the country has been replicated here, about 30 people will have died of coronavirus, 12 of them living their last years in nursing homes, 3 more already seriously ill, and 15 mostly old people who would have lived several years longer. Next year, if we all go through this all over again, we hope to get lower numbers than this.

Is this proportionate? The 17,970 survivors (more like 17,800 actually, because people can still die of other causes) have had pretty miserable years.

If the vaccine doesn't work, I reckon it's time to take our chances and let those who want to self-isolate, do so. But I can't really much evidence that the actions of the last year have been a roaring success.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

So if new mutations come out every few months, and it takes a few months to tweak the virus, are we hoping that there might be a week or two between these "few months" periods when the pubs open before the next "few months" happens?

My town has a population of 18,000. If the average across the country has been replicated here, about 30 people will have died of coronavirus, 12 of them living their last years in nursing homes, 3 more already seriously ill, and 15 mostly old people who would have lived several years longer. Next year, if we all go through this all over again, we hope to get lower numbers than this.

Is this proportionate? The 17,970 survivors (more like 17,800 actually, because people can still die of other causes) have had pretty miserable years.

If the vaccine doesn't work, I reckon it's time to take our chances and let those who want to self-isolate, do so. But I can't really much evidence that the actions of the last year have been a roaring success.

Pretty confident the need for a new vaccine will come only once a year. The seasonal aspect of it speaks to this. If that makes sense.

 

[nwgull]

So if new mutations come out every few months, and it takes a few months to tweak the virus, are we hoping that there might be a week or two between these "few months" periods when the pubs open before the next "few months" happens?

My town has a population of 18,000. If the average across the country has been replicated here, about 30 people will have died of coronavirus, 12 of them living their last years in nursing homes, 3 more already seriously ill, and 15 mostly old people who would have lived several years longer. Next year, if we all go through this all over again, we hope to get lower numbers than this.

Is this proportionate? The 17,970 survivors (more like 17,800 actually, because people can still die of other causes) have had pretty miserable years.

If the vaccine doesn't work, I reckon it's time to take our chances and let those who want to self-isolate, do so. But I can't really much evidence that the actions of the last year have been a roaring success.

New mutations take several months to proliferate and most won't be vaccine resistant.

 

[crodonilson]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.da...ising-Rule-Six-Covid-cases-continue-fall.html

Hmmmmmmm

Think Tim Spector should keep some of these thoughts to himself. He's welcome to lock himself away for years, I'd rather take my chances with the virus than live like this forever.

That is an interesting article, to be fair he says a few years not forever as you quoted. He also said as early as March we should be lifting some restrictions alongside schools reopening, something I think the government is unlikely to do, some estimates are that schools being open enhances the R rate by as much as 0.5 which would push us back above 1 and undo all of the good work we are currently doing in lockdown. I think the government will wait and see what the data shows from schools reopening before easing anything else. I hope that Boris commits this time on his road map out on actual numbers needing to be achieved rather than dates so rather than say pubs will reopen in May, pubs will be able to reopen at the point where daily infections are at under one thousand and decreasing and hospitalisations are at under 5,000 and all over 50's have been vaccinated once and got their 3 weeks to gain immunity.

 

[A1X]

But I can't really much evidence that the actions of the last year have been a roaring success.

In what way? I seriously question anyone who would claim genuinely that the lockdowns have done nothing to reduce case, hospitalisation and death rates (often significantly), the data for this is clearly visible in the figures. Even if you wish to ignore the first lockdown and claim it was due to seasonality the drop in all three as a result of the lockdown in November cannot be so easily dismissed.

Ultimately the actions of the last year have all been about one thing, buying time for science to follow through with cures and vaccines. Yes it's been tedious and horrible, but so is watching your team play it about in a corner when trying to run a clock down in a football match while sitting on a one goal lead. That doesn't mean it's not the best way of reaching your intended goal.

 

[dsr-burnley]

In what way? I seriously question anyone who would claim genuinely that the lockdowns have done nothing to reduce case, hospitalisation and death rates (often significantly), the data for this is clearly visible in the figures. Even if you wish to ignore the first lockdown and claim it was due to seasonality the drop in all three as a result of the lockdown in November cannot be so easily dismissed.

Ultimately the actions of the last year have all been about one thing, buying time for science to follow through with cures and vaccines. Yes it's been tedious and horrible, but so is watching your team play it about in a corner when trying to run a clock down in a football match while sitting on a one goal lead. That doesn't mean it's not the best way of reaching your intended goal.

You'd be right to question someone who says lockdown has done nothing. Obviously that's not relevant to my post where I said it's "hardly a roaring success", which isn't the same thing. Our excess death rates seem to be greater than those of countries like Brazil where the president is a fruitcake who reckons coronavirus doesn't exist, or USA where large parts of the country have been much more inclined to get on with things regardless. I'm not saying the series of lockdowns hasn't reduced deaths from coronavirus, but I'm not convinced just how much effect it has had.

We need to be careful about ascribing success in reducing cases purely to lockdown. If you always say "go back" as a wave is increasing, the wave will always go back because that is what waves do. Canute found that out. The second small wave is the one that most clearly shows lockdown having an effect IMO because it seems that it cut off the rise before it really got going. But whether it would have been enough to keep it down, we don't know.

 

[Swansman]

My wife’s entire immediate family (mum dad and two sisters) have tested positive. Her mum and sisters run a childminding business from her mum’s house, and most of the nippers they look after have also tested positive. I’m not sure why nurseries etc are deemed safer than schools, but it’s not massively surprising.

Such is the randomness of this disease, her mum is quite poorly whilst her sisters (late twenties / early thirties) have no symptoms at all. Certainly the old adage of “do you even know anyone that’s had it?” is wearing a bit thin. My best mate, in his forties, was ill enough to have an ambulance called but wasn’t taken in and has since recovered.

Stay safe, people.

Its really weird isnt it.

When I got I expected to get really ill, considering I dont treat my lungs very well (smoking 20-30 cigarettes a day), dont work out, dont eat healthy etc. But all I had was a minor fever for a day and then I was 100% back to normal despite my positive covid test. It would be pretty interesting if they get some understanding of why it affects people in very different ways. I thought about the study they made in France where it seemed like smokers got some kind of partial immunity or something to this virus. Maybe the virus doesnt like the shit that is already in our lungs.

 

[crodonilson]

It is "very possible" the South Africa variant could already be quite widespread in the UK, Dr Mike Tildesley, an infectious disease expert who advises the government, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

According to health minister Edward Argar 147 cases of the South Africa variant been identified in the UK, though he admitted those figures could be a couple of days out of date. He said the version of the virus first discovered in Kent was still the dominant strain.

Dr Tildesley said the "surge testing" taking place in certain areas in England "really needs to be effective" to halt the spread of the South Africa variant, but "sadly we may be in a similar situation to the Kent variant" which eventually spread across the whole country.

He says there are "significant implications" if it is the case that the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is less effective against the South Africa variant, as it may mean "more restrictions might be needed for longer".

Additional "surge" testing is taking place in small areas of England including parts of Surrey, Bristol, London, Kent, Hertfordshire, Walsall, Gloucestershire and Worcestershire.

 

[CHAPPERS]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-live-matt-hancock-coronavirus-latest-updates

New coronavirus vaccines may not be needed if the current jabs keep people out of hospital, the head of the Oxford University vaccine group has told MPs. As PA Media reports, Prof Andrew Pollard told the all-party parliamentary group on coronavirus the jury was still out on whether new vaccines would be necessary but said scientists and pharmaceutical firms were working to get them ready anyway. Pollard said:

As we move to a point where more people are immunised around the world, or have natural infection, the virus will only survive if it is able to make new versions of itself that can still spread ... despite that immunity. I think we have to come to terms with the fact that that is going to be the future.

Our question at this moment is are we going to need new vaccines? Not to prevent that spread ... but to stop people going into hospital?

At this point, the jury is out on that. All of the vaccines in the trials in those regions where new variants are emerging - we are not seeing a sudden shift where lots of people who are vaccinated are ending up in hospital.

They are still being protected from hospitalisation. We need more data to be secure on this ... but if that’s the case, we might need boosters, we might need tweaks every year, but actually we might not.

We might be generating enough immunity with the current generation of vaccines to stop severe disease.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

We have a Bristol mutation now.

 

[Herr Ing Gull]

We have a Bristol mutation now.

Is that a virus with two rs?

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