Leekbrookgull
Well-known member
Lets assume CMD wins the election,he is the biggest party but if all the others gang up on him he is five short,what would force a new election ? 
Hung parliament who does it work ?
- Thread starter Leekbrookgull
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Coca-Cola Kid
New member
- Feb 9, 2010
- 87
wasnt there something similar in the 70's when a coalition government was formed? they could a general election just 8 months later because they couldnt agree on shitall!
Colossal Squid
Returning video tapes
Good question, I have often wondered this myself.
And excuse me for being ignorant but what does CMD stand for?
And excuse me for being ignorant but what does CMD stand for?
The Large One
Who's Next?
Any number of things could happen.
1. The Conservatives try and form a coalition government with another party. The most likely candidates are the LibDems, but not necessarily.
2. They can try and work a minority government. Tricky, but depending on their deficit, they can sometimes rely on the Ulster Unionists for support. Again, the Unionists may want something in return for this support. The Tories went into the General Election in 1997 as a minority government, propped up by the Unionists.
Of course, it does depend on whether they can form a government. If Gordon Brown believes he can get the LibDems onside, and overtake the Conservatives to form a majority government, he doesn't have to resign. There is precedent for that. In 1974, Edward Heath, then the current PM, despite not having a minority, at first refused to resign, believing he could form a coalition government.
He couldn't, and Harold Wilson was asked to form the government.
1. The Conservatives try and form a coalition government with another party. The most likely candidates are the LibDems, but not necessarily.
2. They can try and work a minority government. Tricky, but depending on their deficit, they can sometimes rely on the Ulster Unionists for support. Again, the Unionists may want something in return for this support. The Tories went into the General Election in 1997 as a minority government, propped up by the Unionists.
Of course, it does depend on whether they can form a government. If Gordon Brown believes he can get the LibDems onside, and overtake the Conservatives to form a majority government, he doesn't have to resign. There is precedent for that. In 1974, Edward Heath, then the current PM, despite not having a minority, at first refused to resign, believing he could form a coalition government.
He couldn't, and Harold Wilson was asked to form the government.
The Large One
Who's Next?
'Call Me Dave'
Colossal Squid
Returning video tapes
Thanks.
Going on last night's very popular Chancellor debate I would have thought that the Lib Dems would be more likely to side with the current crop of cronies than Dave and co. Or have I misread things?
Going on last night's very popular Chancellor debate I would have thought that the Lib Dems would be more likely to side with the current crop of cronies than Dave and co. Or have I misread things?
Deportivo Seagull
I should coco
You need a lot of rope and plenty of time ..
Lord Bracknell
On fire
Don't forget the SNP.
They are campaigning with the apparently serious belief that they might determine the colour of the next UK government. If 30-odd SNP MPs are elected and neither of the main parties has an overall majority, the SNP will back whichever of Brown or Cameron "offers the most to Scotland".
This probably means "offers the biggest cash grant to the Scottish Parliament" to allow the [SNP] Scottish government to splash out on one of its flagship policies - such as better free social care for the elderly or free university education.
A big result for the SNP could very easily lead to this sort of horse trading. My guess is that Brown might do the deal - justifying it on the grounds that a Tory government of the UK would have no real legitimacy, since the Tories had won practically no seats in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland and winning the vote in England alone isn't good enough.
They are campaigning with the apparently serious belief that they might determine the colour of the next UK government. If 30-odd SNP MPs are elected and neither of the main parties has an overall majority, the SNP will back whichever of Brown or Cameron "offers the most to Scotland".
This probably means "offers the biggest cash grant to the Scottish Parliament" to allow the [SNP] Scottish government to splash out on one of its flagship policies - such as better free social care for the elderly or free university education.
A big result for the SNP could very easily lead to this sort of horse trading. My guess is that Brown might do the deal - justifying it on the grounds that a Tory government of the UK would have no real legitimacy, since the Tories had won practically no seats in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland and winning the vote in England alone isn't good enough.
Colossal Squid
Returning video tapes
Given that the SNP have always been more traditionally aligned with the traditional Labour party surely this means Brown has the edge, no?
Free social care and further education are both left wing policies, and once upon a time the Labour party were that side of the middle
Free social care and further education are both left wing policies, and once upon a time the Labour party were that side of the middle
Goldstone Rapper
Rediffusion PlayerofYear
Even if the Tories win more seats than Labour, Gordon Brown could still be Prime Minister, especially if Labour is doing deals with other parties. He is PM until he resigns.
Ted Heath was still PM for days after the first election in 1974, even though Labour had more seats.
When a PM resigns, the Queen will invite someone to be PM who she thinks has wide support within the House of Commons.
Beyond convention, there is nothing that demands that a monarch invites the leader of the biggest party within the Commons to be PM. This is partly because there is no written constitution. Within the parliamentary system itself, the idea of 'parties' is an informal arrangement that developed years after the formal structure of parliament was created.
Ted Heath was still PM for days after the first election in 1974, even though Labour had more seats.
When a PM resigns, the Queen will invite someone to be PM who she thinks has wide support within the House of Commons.
Beyond convention, there is nothing that demands that a monarch invites the leader of the biggest party within the Commons to be PM. This is partly because there is no written constitution. Within the parliamentary system itself, the idea of 'parties' is an informal arrangement that developed years after the formal structure of parliament was created.
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Lord Bracknell
On fire
Not just Scotland, of course, but Wales and Northern Ireland ...
Duncan Hamilton: SNP could get by with a little help from some 'friends' - Scotland on Sunday
Traditionally, Westminster elections are presented as a choice between Labour and the Tories as the two parties of government, with the option of the Liberal Democrats for those who want to register meek, if worthy, protest. But this time, two things have changed. First, there is a real prospect of a hung parliament, with the opportunities that brings. To be fair, Alex Salmond has been making that argument for some time in Scotland, and Plaid have now adopted it in Wales.
But the argument deserves to be explored more deeply, because this isn't about just Scotland or Wales acting in isolation, but rather about the potential collective ability of the nations and regions of the United Kingdom to seize the possibilities of a hung parliament and reboot a Westminster system and mentality which grudgingly granted devolution a decade ago.
If ten SNP MPs (half the party's stated target) were elected together with five Plaid MPs, that is a very useful block. But add in the 18 seats in Northern Ireland and you create real political clout. Not an official grouping, not an alliance formalised in any parliamentary way, but rather a coalition of shared interest on a few vital areas common to each devolved area, such as the vexed question of future public spending.
Why now? Well, that is where it gets interesting because what makes the coming election unique is that the prospect of a hung parliament (which a general election has not delivered since 1974) looks set to collide with a new and unmistakable trend throughout the UK towards strengthened devolved government and rapidly emerging national and regional identity. That matters enormously because the focus of those MPs from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland who, crucially, are also in power back home, will not be London. Even in 1996, which was the last time there was a Westminster government without a Commons majority (under John Major), there was, of course, no devolved government anywhere in the UK.
By contrast, the 2010 election is held against a post-devolution backdrop where the momentum is exclusively in the direction of the devolved parliament and assemblies of the UK growing in profile, stature and importance. And this is about much more than just the SNP or Plaid Cymru. In Northern Ireland, this election is in the context of all parties reaching a deal to devolve policing and justice. Just as happened in Wales and Scotland, the Northern Ireland Assembly is becoming more of a focus for Northern Ireland politicians than Westminster. Add to that the medium term inevitability of a Scottish referendum and the recent decision by all four parties in the Welsh Assembly to coalesce around a mechanism for triggering a referendum in Wales on full powers in devolved areas, and it is beyond dispute that the devolved institutions are advancing at the expense of central government.
Post devolution, to borrow from former US House Speaker Tip O'Neill, all politics is indeed local. The ramifications of that shift are important, especially at this time of financial Armageddon. Undeniably, the greatest priority for each devolved area will be the level of spending at a local level and those decisions remain at the Treasury. But are the devolved governments smart enough to unite and turn the screw?
Certainly, the potential exists. I remember going to Belfast to attend the British-Irish Council with the First Minister in 2007. The sense of common purpose among the delegations from Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland was based not on some misty eyed Celtic fraternity, but on the hard realities of political priority.
Sure it won't be easy; the Conservative government may need Unionist votes from Northern Ireland and Sinn Fein maintain a self-denying ordinance on voting. Moreover, there are vast policy differences between the parties of the devolved administrations; the DUP and the SNP for example probably aren't perceived as natural allies. But so what? Co-operate where it suits, diverge where it doesn't. The parties at Holyrood, Stormont and the National Assembly have been doing that for years.
But Plaid have gone further and specified exactly what Welsh Nationalist MPs will seek to achieve in the hung parliament, such as protecting the budget of the Welsh Assembly and specific schemes for pensioners and businesses. The details are not important – what matters is that they are giving the electorate specific reasons to vote Plaid in a Westminster election. The SNP should do the same. Not only does it focus efforts for 2010, but, almost as importantly, it develops that habit of repeat SNP voting, which is a key priority for the party on the back of the 2007 breakthrough and ahead of 2011.
It used to be said on Scottish doorsteps that the SNP were irrelevant in a Westminster election because "only Labour can beat the Tories". No-one believes Labour can beat the Tories in 2010, so attention will inevitably turn throughout the UK to how each area can protect local spending, local jobs and local services. Peter Robinson, Alex Salmond and Ieuan Wyn Jones may reflect that Tony Blair was maybe right after all – we are, indeed, stronger together, weaker apart.
Duncan Hamilton: SNP could get by with a little help from some 'friends' - Scotland on Sunday
Traditionally, Westminster elections are presented as a choice between Labour and the Tories as the two parties of government, with the option of the Liberal Democrats for those who want to register meek, if worthy, protest. But this time, two things have changed. First, there is a real prospect of a hung parliament, with the opportunities that brings. To be fair, Alex Salmond has been making that argument for some time in Scotland, and Plaid have now adopted it in Wales.
But the argument deserves to be explored more deeply, because this isn't about just Scotland or Wales acting in isolation, but rather about the potential collective ability of the nations and regions of the United Kingdom to seize the possibilities of a hung parliament and reboot a Westminster system and mentality which grudgingly granted devolution a decade ago.
If ten SNP MPs (half the party's stated target) were elected together with five Plaid MPs, that is a very useful block. But add in the 18 seats in Northern Ireland and you create real political clout. Not an official grouping, not an alliance formalised in any parliamentary way, but rather a coalition of shared interest on a few vital areas common to each devolved area, such as the vexed question of future public spending.
Why now? Well, that is where it gets interesting because what makes the coming election unique is that the prospect of a hung parliament (which a general election has not delivered since 1974) looks set to collide with a new and unmistakable trend throughout the UK towards strengthened devolved government and rapidly emerging national and regional identity. That matters enormously because the focus of those MPs from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland who, crucially, are also in power back home, will not be London. Even in 1996, which was the last time there was a Westminster government without a Commons majority (under John Major), there was, of course, no devolved government anywhere in the UK.
By contrast, the 2010 election is held against a post-devolution backdrop where the momentum is exclusively in the direction of the devolved parliament and assemblies of the UK growing in profile, stature and importance. And this is about much more than just the SNP or Plaid Cymru. In Northern Ireland, this election is in the context of all parties reaching a deal to devolve policing and justice. Just as happened in Wales and Scotland, the Northern Ireland Assembly is becoming more of a focus for Northern Ireland politicians than Westminster. Add to that the medium term inevitability of a Scottish referendum and the recent decision by all four parties in the Welsh Assembly to coalesce around a mechanism for triggering a referendum in Wales on full powers in devolved areas, and it is beyond dispute that the devolved institutions are advancing at the expense of central government.
Post devolution, to borrow from former US House Speaker Tip O'Neill, all politics is indeed local. The ramifications of that shift are important, especially at this time of financial Armageddon. Undeniably, the greatest priority for each devolved area will be the level of spending at a local level and those decisions remain at the Treasury. But are the devolved governments smart enough to unite and turn the screw?
Certainly, the potential exists. I remember going to Belfast to attend the British-Irish Council with the First Minister in 2007. The sense of common purpose among the delegations from Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland was based not on some misty eyed Celtic fraternity, but on the hard realities of political priority.
Sure it won't be easy; the Conservative government may need Unionist votes from Northern Ireland and Sinn Fein maintain a self-denying ordinance on voting. Moreover, there are vast policy differences between the parties of the devolved administrations; the DUP and the SNP for example probably aren't perceived as natural allies. But so what? Co-operate where it suits, diverge where it doesn't. The parties at Holyrood, Stormont and the National Assembly have been doing that for years.
But Plaid have gone further and specified exactly what Welsh Nationalist MPs will seek to achieve in the hung parliament, such as protecting the budget of the Welsh Assembly and specific schemes for pensioners and businesses. The details are not important – what matters is that they are giving the electorate specific reasons to vote Plaid in a Westminster election. The SNP should do the same. Not only does it focus efforts for 2010, but, almost as importantly, it develops that habit of repeat SNP voting, which is a key priority for the party on the back of the 2007 breakthrough and ahead of 2011.
It used to be said on Scottish doorsteps that the SNP were irrelevant in a Westminster election because "only Labour can beat the Tories". No-one believes Labour can beat the Tories in 2010, so attention will inevitably turn throughout the UK to how each area can protect local spending, local jobs and local services. Peter Robinson, Alex Salmond and Ieuan Wyn Jones may reflect that Tony Blair was maybe right after all – we are, indeed, stronger together, weaker apart.
The Large One
Who's Next?
But will the SNP want to align itself to a UK government when their ultimate aim is to have nothing to do with it? To form a ruling coalition in Westminster would discredit their 'independence' claims, surely?
Lord Bracknell
On fire
Exactly the opposite. The SNP play to a Scottish audience, who would be impressed with what Alex Salmond manages to screw out of a London government. So impressed, in fact, that they would vote for independence when Salmond achieves his referendum.
Simplifying Irish history enormously ... A major step towards Irish independence came in 1910, when Asquith's UK Liberal government threw its lot in with the Irish Home Rule MPs in order to stay in power.
Cian
Well-known member
The UUP could easily have zero MPs to support a minority government with. Their single MP is running as an independent unionist, and then unionist vote is now heavily split three ways between them, the DUP and TUV.
TUV are an entirely unappetising option to go in to government with, the DUP might be acceptable now but the party is in internal strife still.
Colossal Squid
Returning video tapes
For the first time in my life I give a shit what Scotland thinks
Two Professors
Two Mad Professors
Can think of more than a few current "Honourable? Members" who should be hung.
But I don't want us to go the way of Italian politics with a different government every few months,so it's time to either devolve the UK or vote for political reform to get rid of our crap electoral system.If London has a Mayor,then why do they need so many MP's? etc ad nauseam
But I don't want us to go the way of Italian politics with a different government every few months,so it's time to either devolve the UK or vote for political reform to get rid of our crap electoral system.If London has a Mayor,then why do they need so many MP's? etc ad nauseam
Dandyman
In London village.
Or if you want to be a bit sneaky CMD encourages the SNP to break up the UK thereby ensuring a permanent Tory majority based on English votes?
Goldstone Rapper
Rediffusion PlayerofYear
They would cease to be the Conservative and Unionist Party if that happened.
withdeanwombat
Well-known member
If it IS a hung Parliament,inevitably it will be the Lib Dems who are hanged.This is because such a parliament will be short lived,do nothing,and a new election will soon follow.But the LibDems will have had to show their hand.Tory Lib Dems will be appalled if the LibDems back Labour.Likewise Labour LibDems will be horrified if they back the Tories.
In the follow up election these supporters will return to their natural,possibly traditional,parties,and the LibDem support will collapse,allowing their six remaining MPs to divide up their non existant "opposition" posts,and promise us income tax of 3%,bread,circuses,free university education,free foreign holidays ,the penny and the bun.
In the follow up election these supporters will return to their natural,possibly traditional,parties,and the LibDem support will collapse,allowing their six remaining MPs to divide up their non existant "opposition" posts,and promise us income tax of 3%,bread,circuses,free university education,free foreign holidays ,the penny and the bun.
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