House prices to crash

[Uncle Spielberg]

you keep saying this. which of the 6 major lenders (Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, Nationwide, RBS, Santander) do you see dispearing? you should have a little more faith in the market to exploit the untapped need, sooner or later a bank will go back into the FTB/low deposit segment and they will all follow for fear of losing market share. FTB are the growth end of the market, if done right thtey get them for life make more money from them. of course, that might mean less need for mortage brokers as people find they dont need to change every 2 years...

Look if you find the need to have a pop at my " useless " job fine but mortgage brokers have pretty much wiped off the face of the Earth already 9000 at the latest count down from 35000 in 2007 but what you will have is half a dozen high street banks who create a cartel and as such can charge whatever rates and extortionate fees they want as there is no competition and no choice in the marketplace. They will also do an execution only mortgage sale and sell the product of the week with no advice and no comeback if anything goes wrong, they will flog expensive insurance products as a condition of doing the mortgage.

As they will be no independant advisors, ie mortgage brokers left people will just trot along to their banks like lambs to the slaugher with no help or no comeback and as I said many of them will be turned down with nowhere to go and nowhere to turn.

The whole system is wrong now. Now I know people don't give a f*** as I am only a broker in a suit and not a miner with soot on my face but the devastation to me and my industry is just as bad and painful to the individuals.

People will be worse off with no independant advice and no competition with lenders as the Banks will be King.

 

[Gwylan]

It depends what / where you want to live. I think alot of people expect to immediately move into a 3 bedroom house. There are 1 bed flats available for under 150k in Brighton.

Exactly. As I pointed out earlier there are plenty of one-bed places for sale in Brighton at £100,00 or lower. This idea that people need a 3-bed semi as a starter home is crazy, start small and work your way up.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Trade press article today

Talk of a double dip recession hit the headlines last week, with Bank of England governor Mervyn King warning that the UK faces a choppy recovery. Meanwhile, the Council of Mortgage Lenders has revised its forecast for gross mortgage lending in 2010 downwards by £10bn.

At the beginning of the year many commentators were predicting that 2011 would be the year when the market started to bounce back, but in many ways the mortgage sector is in a worse state now than it was 12 months ago.

And the proposals in the Financial Services Authority’s Mortgage Market Review are likely to restrict the market even further without providing a solution to the funding drought. Sure, the MMR may fix some problems in the market but it won’t address the lack of funds - in fact, it could even make it worse.

And there’s precious little indication that the government or the regulator have a solution to fill the funding gap either. Many lenders have lost the will to lend at high LTVs - and in some cases even at low LTVs.

Let’s hope the government and Bank don’t desert the industry following the implementation of the MMR. The review is already seen by many as a cosmetic measure by the FSA and the Treasury to silence their critics by making it seem like they are doing something.

Meanwhile, brokers and lenders that have been holding out for the market to recover are starting to run out of steam, as was evident last week with the disheartening news about Savills Lending Solutions and Beacon Homeloans. Until the authorities address the fundamental issues holding the market back such as securitisation and funding we will remain in limbo.

 

[beorhthelm]

Look if you find the need to have a pop at my " useless " ...
People will be worse off with no independant advice and no competition with lenders as the Banks will be King.

ooo, someone's touchie. i didnt have a "pop", i asked why you keep saying there's 4 banks when there are 6 major lenders, which one is going to disappear. if anything im quesitoning if you are looking at the market pragmatically, clearly you have an interest but seems it is distorting your view.

as for your precious industry, i saw had some so called advise this weekend (estate agents, seems they want to get into the mortgage business and wont let you view untill you've seen their advisor). nice chap, when through a couple of offers but utterly failed to point out that the interest rate and repayments went upto after the fixed term: on the "cheapest" current product it was from 2.5% to 7.25% . 35k brokers rather feels like a symptom of an overblown market, you and i both know alot of them will be shit and alot of others chancers.

you're right the system is wrong now, but not for the reason you think. the inter-bank loans are too high compared to the BoE base rate, so throwing up the higher rates. when the BoE did its QE it should have been selective aabout to whom it eased and put some requirements in place, so more of the money went to this sector (lending) rather than clearing debt and the stock market.

competition will return, as will the brokers.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Don't start me on estate agency mortgage brokers. Also did he not give you a kfi which would show the payment after the initial fixed rate ended and what lender did he recommend with a svr of 7.25% as they vary between 3 and 5% ?.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

ooo, someone's touchie. i didnt have a "pop", i asked why you keep saying there's 4 banks when there are 6 major lenders, which one is going to disappear. if anything im quesitoning if you are looking at the market pragmatically, clearly you have an interest but seems it is distorting your view.

as for your precious industry, i saw had some so called advise this weekend (estate agents, seems they want to get into the mortgage business and wont let you view untill you've seen their advisor). nice chap, when through lots of offers but utterly failed to point out what the interest rate and repayments went upto after the fixed term: from 2.5% to 7.25% . 35k brokers rather feels like a symptom of an overblown market, you and i both know alot of them will be shit and alot of others chancers.

you're right the system is wrong now, but not for the reason you think. the inter-bank loans are too high compared to the BoE base rate, so throwing up the higher rates. when the BoE did its QE it should have been selective aabout to whom it eased and put some requirements in place, so more of the money went to this sector (lending) rather than clearing debt and the stock market.

competition will return, as will the brokers.

Fox & Sons ?.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

HSBC
Lloyds Group
Nat West Group
Barclays

 

[beorhthelm]

Fox & Sons ?.

very good lender was chelsea i think. i only noticed on the paperwork when i got home. didnt seem at all likly to recommend that my current leader, Nationwide, would port my existing mortgage (at +2%), making most other deals non-starters really.

 

[Pavilionaire]

I'd like to see a tax on purchasing a second home I think, or maybe a tax on rental income. My point is that needs to be discouraged. We're in a position where our we need to invest in our pensions and yet it's often more attractive to buy a second home instead. That seems wrong to me.

It's all very well saying we need to invest in our pensions, but the bulk of the premiums paid to pension providers are reinvested in the stock market which has performed terribly.

It's therefore no wonder people don't want to see their hard-earned cash being frittered away via the markets. Similarly, there's no interest to be had on savings, no dividends to be paid on stocks/ shares and a glut of empty commerical property.

Therefore, residential property is the ONLY viable long-term investment for many, and is a form of "saving" or "pension" in its own right. People have already rejected stocks and shares, so if there ARE no returns to be had people will look to other areas they can get a return.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Chelsea will be on the " panel " so they are not whole of market. Also they should have told you the ported rate could not be beaten. But then this is what is going on at target driven Banks and Estate Agents and this will be the choice for advise very soon and that is my whole point. I may well be a casualty after 20 years of doing this and that will be to the publics loss as I am honest and very good at what I do as are many other brokers.

 

[beorhthelm]

HSBC
Lloyds Group
Nat West Group
Barclays

you know Natwest is part of RBS? bit of rebrand you think? might be a good idea.

but where are Santander and Nationwide disappearing to? also, i expect Halifax to be spun out myself, and a resurgence of the building societies.

 

[islingtonseagull]

You should definately port the Nationwide rate. Ask Uncle Spielberg to do it for you as he will get paid for it and it wont cost you anything. everyones a winner.

If not I'll do it for you!

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I would not get paid anything for it. Thats possibly why the other guy did not recommend it but I couldn't comment.

 

[islingtonseagull]

Edit: Definately port the Nationwide if it is enough. If you need more you may neeed to look elsewhere!

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

you know Natwest is part of RBS? bit of rebrand you think? might be a good idea.

but where are Santander and Nationwide disappearing to? also, i expect Halifax to be spun out myself, and a resurgence of the building societies.

Santander are not your main street bank but are going that way. They have just brought hundreds of old RBS offices. Nationwide are not a bank they are a building society. Halifax is part of Lloyds Group.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

And yes RBS is part of Nat West Group.

 

[islingtonseagull]

Nationwide pay for porting last time I checked. I would phone and double check but will be put on hold for 40 mins.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Edit: Definately port the Nationwide if it is enough. If you need more you may neeed to look elsewhere!

He should port the existing mortgage and any additional borrowing on a new rate with Nationwide.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Nationwide pay for porting last time I checked. I would phone and double check but will be put on hold for 40 mins.

Odd that if you had an independant mortgage broker you could call him and get the answer immediately.

 

[User removed 4]

Indeed, and it doesn't work because this is paid on profits from gains in equity. What then happens is that people simply rent out their second homes until house prices are high enough to make a tidy profit.

Also what are the rules on CGT? I have a feeling it might apply on a third home, not a second one. I could easily be wrong though.

I'd like to see a tax on purchasing a second home I think, or maybe a tax on rental income. My point is that needs to be discouraged. We're in a position where our we need to invest in our pensions and yet it's often more attractive to buy a second home instead. That seems wrong to me.

You already get taxed on rental income.