Justice
Dangerous Idiot
Based on?
Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊
Global markets in death spiral?
- Thread starter hybrid_x
- Start date
Remember this thread from 2 years ago? - "House prices to crash"
It will happen in the next 5 years.
- Aug 7, 2003
- 7,861
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,438
tbf, thats because theres a government subsidy on mortgages, which in 3-5 years will go. the current policy on housing/mortgages is appaling, its the same as that which the US followed in the 90's seeding the recent events. i've yet to see an economist who think its a good idea.
Justice
Dangerous Idiot
I wouldn't read to much into this it only applies to new builds and recent studies suggest hardly anyone gets approved, load of garbage from the clown that is Cameron
- Aug 7, 2003
- 7,861
You're correct, there is a subsidy, but we're not going to see a catastrophic crash in house prices in the next 5 years.
mreprice
Active member
Actually the data is accurate. But as others have pointed out, the blog doesn't actually make any arguments as to why the data may represent a problem. And it doesn't.
There are some serious structural problems with the level of Government debt across the globe. But the points in the blog aren't anything to worry about. They are just part of a normal market.
There are some serious structural problems with the level of Government debt across the globe. But the points in the blog aren't anything to worry about. They are just part of a normal market.
Mo Gosfield
Well-known member
- Aug 11, 2010
- 6,315
I blame the Propopotovs for all these death spirals. First bumble bees and now global....what next?
GreersElbow
New member
Judging an economy on how well its stock market is doing is flawed, the speculative markets are all psychological based. It's only what investors think, if they think Apple's stocks are not worth investing in, or feel future profits will drop, the price drops.
What people should keep an eye on is gilts, yields and bonds. The higher the yield, the more worried people should be if their nation is running a deficit. Especially if it's rising and forecast to rise because the cost of borrowing increases. Which is what happened to Greece, their deficit run so high and their ability to repay their debts questioned. This lead to the yield on their debt to rise and alas, cheap credit dried up and their economy ran to a halt purely because it was running on cheap credit. Yield on debt shows a better picture than stock and shares, as it shows how much the investor is actually getting back on their investment. The higher it is, the better for the investor, but the debtor has to pay more.
And people bringing up the type of blog that is are correct to bring that up. These "conspiracy theory" type blogs cherry pick information. They tend to find something that's startling, then sensationalise on that piece of information.
What people should keep an eye on is gilts, yields and bonds. The higher the yield, the more worried people should be if their nation is running a deficit. Especially if it's rising and forecast to rise because the cost of borrowing increases. Which is what happened to Greece, their deficit run so high and their ability to repay their debts questioned. This lead to the yield on their debt to rise and alas, cheap credit dried up and their economy ran to a halt purely because it was running on cheap credit. Yield on debt shows a better picture than stock and shares, as it shows how much the investor is actually getting back on their investment. The higher it is, the better for the investor, but the debtor has to pay more.
And people bringing up the type of blog that is are correct to bring that up. These "conspiracy theory" type blogs cherry pick information. They tend to find something that's startling, then sensationalise on that piece of information.
hybrid_x
Banned
- Jun 28, 2011
- 2,225
- Thread starter
- #51
In the scores of years the market has been around, the policy of QE is certainly not within any market normality.
Surely the link showing a 'disconnection from reality' represents the problem? Or are you seeking something more specific in market data from him?
For me it seems strange that the markets keep going up whilst debt keeps rising and QE continues....i can only think its the mega corps increasing profits (oil, mining, energy corps etc) that allow for this?
Do you not think that interest rates will rise sometime in the next 3 years? I do, and in which case there will be a shed load of repos' and house prices will fall. Interested in why not, if not.
London Irish
Well-known member
The amusing thing is that the 18 reasons don't even go into potentially the most worrying thing, the unsustainable levels of debt in China's official and shadow banking system.
But none of the current market movements, paricularly the sell off in emerging markets, are that surprising and alarming, it's just investors adjusting in their usual chaotic unrational markets way to signs that US fed policy is about to undergo a big change, when it tapers its bond buying programme, expected soon
But none of the current market movements, paricularly the sell off in emerging markets, are that surprising and alarming, it's just investors adjusting in their usual chaotic unrational markets way to signs that US fed policy is about to undergo a big change, when it tapers its bond buying programme, expected soon
London Irish
Well-known member
Generally these catastrophe loonies are just trying to bid up the price of gold and silver in which they are heavily invested. Surprising thing is cant see any reference to bitcoin, that's their latest fad
The FTSE is up 33% since 2005 and a lot of that happened this year. In real terms, i.e. against inflation, it has hardly gone up. Oil shares have been fairly static and mining has dived with the drop in demand from China. QE, apart from supporting excessive house prices has put the world economy in a position where growth is beginning to return and the markets are responding. The paradox is that the world stock markets are now falling because as soon as QE starts improving economies it is reined in and interest rates begin to rise as less money becomes available. Catch22 and what the article is picking up on. The saviours will be China as a precursor to world dominance and inflation. China with its massive market yet to become consumer led and inflation to eat into the huge trillions and triliions of debt. Or maybe a war, plague or multinational genocide.
Psychobilly freakout
HellBilly
Albion Dan
Banned
It is undeniable that levels of US and UK and most western Govenrment debt are way beyond any expectation that they can ever seriously be repaid whilst levels of welfare support and (true) unemployment are way beyond those that are anywhere near sustainable in the long term. Add the fact that reflation of the housing bubble is a ridiculous policy designed to get the Tories re elected but will have long term negative repercussions on the market and the long term outlook is pretty grim. Europes woes are also being kept in the shadows due to an upcoming German election but are still horribly sick.
It will break at some point. When and how long from now is another matter.
It will break at some point. When and how long from now is another matter.
jgmcdee
New member
- Mar 25, 2012
- 931
For those of you who aren't economists here's a handy introduction:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVp8UGjECt4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVp8UGjECt4
Sergei's Celebration
Well-known member
I'll give this 1 more page before the I word gets used.