Global markets in death spiral?

[hans kraay fan club]

There is no real argument in this hysterical blog; it's just a list of loosely connected, but very selectively chosen "sensational" facts. If you could be arsed, it wouldn't take long to pull together a list of 18 key "signs" proving exactly the opposite (i.e. that the global economy is on the brink of an unprecendented era of growth and prosperity). That wouldn't be true either.

Exactly that.

It's designed to panic gullible people -- interesting that the last sentence of both blogs contains this doom-laden warning to "prepare" ("I hope that you are taking this time to prepare for the approaching storm, because it is going to be very painful.", "Use the time that you have right now to prepare for what is ahead."), but he makes no suggestions as to how his readers might prepare

By clicking on the sponsored advertising links on the site, that fund the author's 'off-grid' lifestyle?

 

[teaboy]

Y2K was based upon one number in a computer....the data in the above links are based on thousands of numbers.

@teaboy the post asked for economists or market players to reply....but yes, hoping for this was a large oversight ;-)

Why post it on a football forum then? Why not ask some economists? Or do you not actually want answers, just a weird feeling of superiority? And why should you believe what someone claims as their job. I'm an economist and market player. Now I'm a king. Now I'm a farmer. Why would that matter? Is the information you glean from NSC reliable and trusted?

You realise the blog is essentially an advert, written by the same person who wrote the book that's advertised all over the page?

 

[Ken Livingstone Seagull]

You realise the blog is essentially an advert, written by the same person who wrote the book that's advertised all over the page?

Shhhhh, let's not burst his bubble. It's good to live in perpetual fear. Let him have his 5 minutes of glory and righteousness.
It's an excellent fishing expedition. Let's just sit back, watch, and enjoy a frosty one.
As an economist, I say 13 pages and a flounce.

 

[tinycowboy]

I work in asset management, can't see any evidence of panic around. As with all economics, there are multiple viewpoints. The US economy is strengthening - which sounds good - and they don't see the need to print more money. Which may be good or bad, depending on your viewpoint. US mortgage demand is up - which could be good or bad, depending on your viewpoint. US FX rate is strengthening, which is causing pain in Asia Pacific. Not good if you have investments there as they will devalue. Yields are up just about everywhere, I think, so cause for concern there. I realise I'm not being very enlightening here, but it really is a case of guessing if you want to be active in these markets - they're based mostly on sand rather than concrete - if you try to second guess all these different indicators for the short term, you will either be lucky or unlucky.

 

[brightonrock]

the post asked for economists or market players to reply...

And one did. The first reply. Post 2. And he said it's nonsense. But you've ignored that because you choose to believe any old shyte on a random tinfoil-hatter's blog rather than the expert opinion you apparently seek.

Out of curiosity, is there any conspiracy you don't believe? Only considering how you've single-handedly unveiled 9/11, 7/7, Boston, the moon landings, the OBL assassination, the JFK assassination and many many more as set up, I assume you find it more or less impossible to leave your house for bread and milk, because the CIA, and MI6, and Mossad and the KGB must all have operatives queueing up outside your door with silenced pistols?

 

[SussexHoop]

just like Y2K. Remember Y2K?

Y2K ... derided by many at the time as scaremongering and a massive con-trick by IT contractors to charge their clients a fortune.

The client I was working for at the time spent many millions changing their systems so they would continue to function. Without that they would have had major issues. Despite that they still had some date issues.

In a briefing in the run up to Y2K, the Program Head said he had to keep the DTI informed of progress throughout and he was confident everything would be fine. When asked what he would say if it was a disaster, he said he'd tell them everything was fine.

Point being even if things were a shambles, I don't think many companies would have owned up so a lot of people came to the conclusion they did and made some very ill-informed allegations about the IT industry.

 

[hybrid_x]

Why post it on a football forum then?

why do people ask many things not football related here? because there is a broad fractal of knowledge on here (100k people). e.g going on holiday to skegness posts, car, pc, relationship problems....etc.

I work in asset management, can't see any evidence of panic around. As with all economics, there are multiple viewpoints. The US economy is strengthening - which sounds good - and they don't see the need to print more money. Which may be good or bad, depending on your viewpoint. US mortgage demand is up - which could be good or bad, depending on your viewpoint. US FX rate is strengthening, which is causing pain in Asia Pacific. Not good if you have investments there as they will devalue. Yields are up just about everywhere, I think, so cause for concern there. I realise I'm not being very enlightening here, but it really is a case of guessing if you want to be active in these markets - they're based mostly on sand rather than concrete - if you try to second guess all these different indicators for the short term, you will either be lucky or unlucky.

err, the FED gives $85b QE3 a month to banks, and are only talking of 'tapering' - not removing QE3.

surely you can see QE is in effect because normal monetary policies have all failed?

strange how you have not replied to any of the data in the links.

 

[Mr H]

View attachment Uncle-Sam-Wont-Go-Broke.pdf
Alternative, less hysterical reading for Hybrid

 

[Ken Livingstone Seagull]

err, the FED gives $85b QE3 a month to banks, and are only talking of 'tapering' - not removing QE3.

surely you can see QE is in effect because normal monetary policies have all failed?

strange how you have not replied to any of the data in the links.

Whoosh.

Try and remember, this is NSC. We are far more interested in what colour knickers we prefer.
But what better place to dazzle us all with your...brilliance.
And as counseled above, it might behoove one to remember the saying about lies, damned lies, and statistics. The scarey "quadrillion squillion yen" deficit actually translates as about $780.

 

[tinycowboy]

err, the FED gives $85b QE3 a month to banks, and are only talking of 'tapering' - not removing QE3.

True - I was being inexact - I meant no acceleration in QE.

surely you can see QE is in effect because normal monetary policies have all failed?

Agreed. Did I imply something different?

strange how you have not replied to any of the data in the links.

Well, a lot of them seem to be based on factual information selected by the author to make a point - which is what economists do?

 

[Billy the Fish]

Human kind is ultimately flawed and destined to fail eventually. Economics is a side show.

Very true

 

[hybrid_x]

True - I was being inexact - I meant no acceleration in QE.

Agreed. Did I imply something different?

Well, a lot of them seem to be based on factual information selected by the author to make a point - which is what economists do?

Well, saying the 'US Economy is strengthening' implies something different.....the reality is it's on its 4rse if it needs $85b a month.

what do you make of the data yourself?

 

[Goldstone76]

There will always be crashes.. it is inevitable with how the banking system is rigged. For those that can be bothered have a look at http://www.positivemoney.org/ then discuss..

 

[teaboy]

why do people ask many things not football related here? because there is a broad fractal of knowledge on here (100k people). e.g going on holiday to skegness posts, car, pc, relationship problems....etc.

The posts you referenced never have the qualification that "only domestic travel agents/car mechanics/computer engineers/relationship counsellors can post" do they? They ask for general opinion in the hope of gauging some sort of consensus. If they ACTUALLY want the car sorted out they'd take it to the garage. You claim to want the data analysis yet don't ask the right people and attack those who offer their thoughts on the subject.

The first reply was from an economist who denounced the information you provided, as requested. Others have denounced the source and reliability of the information. The 'data' in the link (the graphs) are only referenced by other blog post links. TO THE SAME BLOG!

 

[Hillian1]

what do you make of the data

 

[LamieRobertson]

what do they say... put 20 economists in a room get 20 different views

 

[soistes]

the post asked for economists or market players to reply....but yes, hoping for this was a large oversight ;-)

Sorry -- I didn't mention in my post, but I am an economist, trained to masters degree level and with 30+ years experience. Not sure that gives me any special status in this discussion, however. Anyone with two 0-Levels and a budgerigar should be able to work out that the blog is crap.

 

[knocky1]

Degree in Economics and Business Sudies and PGCE (Economics and Business Studies). Work experience limited due to making so much money from property 15 years ago. Am I now allowed to ask what colour knickers Ben Bernanke wears and how they bear up to his quantitive easing?

 

[Justice]

I've heard whispers that the USA are in so much debt that the only way for them is to devalue the dollar.

 

[knocky1]

I've heard whispers that the USA are in so much debt that the only way for them is to devalue the dollar.

Ecomomic forces will see a 5% appreciation in the dollar within 3 months.