Full national lockdown (not education) 4/11 - 1/12 possible

[beorhthelm]

That was based on absolutely no action being taken at all, that is, without the positive effect of local lockdowns and tiered restrictions applied to 10m’s of folk, rolled out since mid September.

absolutly. yet some still say we should have locked down based on it, even though the situation and numbers changed due to other restrictions.

 

[Weststander]

absolutly. yet some still say we should have locked down based on it, even though the situation and numbers changed due to other restrictions.

I agree. It’s about balance imho. I can’t recall in mid September political leaders or SAGE/unofficial SAGE calling for a full national lockdown lasting a month or more. Wales announced their mini two week circuit breaker on 18 October. It would great if that alone suppresses the second wave, but with the worsening metrics across Europe, I wonder if Wales will find that two weeks was inadequate?

 

[Is it PotG?]

R is around 1 and the number of daily cases is levelling out and even falling slightly, so we’re going to shut the country down for a month and let more businesses go under and tens of thousands of people lose their jobs. Best of all, we’re going to base it on bullshit predictions just because they come from the ‘right’ people.

Nice one Johnson you utter imbecile.

Not a fan I gather?

 

[Saltydog]

R is around 1 and the number of daily cases is levelling out and even falling slightly, so we’re going to shut the country down for a month and let more businesses go under and tens of thousands of people lose their jobs. Best of all, we’re going to base it on bullshit predictions just because they come from the ‘right’ people.

Nice one Johnson you utter imbecile.

I seem to recall (but my memory is not what but expect there maybe examples buried in this thread), some of the reopen ASAP supporters have advised us over the many months that this little bugger has been impacting global communities, what is important is the starting number and not necessarily the R rate itself. So do we know the true daily spread in numeric terms rather than just the numbers of those sensible and courteous enough to take the test and sadly return positive results.

 

[Weststander]

R is around 1 and the number of daily cases is levelling out and even falling slightly, so we’re going to shut the country down for a month and let more businesses go under and tens of thousands of people lose their jobs. Best of all, we’re going to base it on bullshit predictions just because they come from the ‘right’ people.

Nice one Johnson you utter imbecile.

So then the scientists in SAGE, unofficial SAGE, NHS planners, Starmer and Sturgeon are utter imbeciles too.

Why exactly are all these people, parties and bodies conspiring to hurt people financially, what’s the secret plan?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

So then the scientists in SAGE, unofficial SAGE, NHS planners, Starmer and Sturgeon are utter imbeciles too.

Why exactly are all these people, parties and bodies conspiring to hurt people financially, what’s the secret plan?

Sturgeon / drakeford have made this political

Sage have been running bro the press every day when they don’t get what they want.

The data has been taken apart in the past couple of days as scaremongering - 4000 deaths a day? The most deaths world wide in a day has been 7500 in a day.

The modeller who put it together has said it’s been miss used, the tiers have been working - we all want sage to be spot on and correct, but the lockdown seems to be the wrong action on the data.

This is a complete shambles.

 

[Saltydog]

You are correct, the true number of cases is obviously higher than the reported number. But surely we have no reason to think the proportion of positive tests to actual cases has changed, in which case a levelling of reported numbers indicates a levelling in true numbers too?

Sorry I edited my initial post and some of it reads like jibberish!

I am sure I heard last week that it was suspected (accepted - unconfirmed) that whilst we were seeing ~20 - 24k positive results per day from the 250/320k or whatever the actual processed test numbers were but that the true number was closer to 100k when those who were not included in these values for what ever reason (a symptomatic/ scared to risk economic harm etc) were considered. I think the 100k number was attributed to the ONS but others might be able to clarify.

Yes the more tests you do the more infections will be identified.of course but I agree - would hope the two axis would be linear rather than showing any unwanted anomaly’s!

 

[Yoda]

Sorry I edited my initial post and some of it reads like jibberish!

I am sure I heard last week that it was suspected (accepted - unconfirmed) that whilst we were seeing ~20 - 24k positive results per day from the 250/320k or whatever the actual processed test numbers were but that the true number was closer to 100k when those who were not included in these values for what ever reason (a symptomatic/ scared to risk economic harm etc) were considered. I think the 100k number was attributed to the ONS but others might be able to clarify.

Yes the more tests you do the more infections will be identified.of course but I agree - would hope the two axis would be linear rather than showing any unwanted anomaly’s!

The 100k per day was Imperial College London. They were estimating that there were 96k new infections per day for England alone last week, based on data from 3 weeks prior. Part of this report was used by SAGE. This was also not taking into account the new tiered measures that had just been put in place in the north. They also had R = 1.5

Figures from that actual week from both Kings College/Zoe and ONS showed the figure to be ~42k and ~54k respectively. Both for the whole of the UK and showing R had reduced by this point to 1.1

 

[Weststander]

Sturgeon / drakeford have made this political

Sage have been running bro the press every day when they don’t get what they want.

The data has been taken apart in the past couple of days as scaremongering - 4000 deaths a day? The most deaths world wide in a day has been 7500 in a day.

The modeller who put it together has said it’s been miss used, the tiers have been working - we all want sage to be spot on and correct, but the lockdown seems to be the wrong action on the data.

This is a complete shambles.

Lockdown 2 is backed by independent SAGE, formed by scientists early this, including critics of the UK’s approach.

Also by Starmer and his shadow cabinet.

In fact they pushed for this before your friend Johnson.

Why would Labour and independent Sage strongly want this lockdown?

 

[sparkie]

Only a small reduction in work traffic on the roads this morning. Lockdown in name only ( LINO ).

 

[dazzer6666]

Superspreaders planning a Brighton event this weekend.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18845073.coronavirus-lockdown-protest-brighton-seafront-weekend/

 

[Weststander]

Superspreaders planning a Brighton event this weekend.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18845073.coronavirus-lockdown-protest-brighton-seafront-weekend/

Helpfully giving the location and date so that the police can shut it down.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Lockdown 2 is backed by independent SAGE, formed by scientists early this, including critics of the UK’s approach.

Also by Starmer and his shadow cabinet.

In fact they pushed for this before your friend Johnson.

Why would Labour and independent Sage strongly want this lockdown?

Labour are going on the back of Sage advice and the data they used

What data are independent sage using? Is anyone questioning them on figures ?

Do you think there was going to be 4000 deaths a day?

 

[Notters]

Our firework shop has become a 'general store' by putting a sign and some bog roll in the window!

 

[The Fits]

I'm finding this whole thing really puzzling:

I'm a single person, no kids, run a pub and live on my own. So I'm well and truly lockdowned. That's fine by me, clearly something needs to be done to curtail infection levels.

But:

Most people I know are certainly not in a state of lockdown- okay they might not be mixing households internally, but apart from that their lives go on pretty much as they have been since lockdown number 1- still doing the school run, still going to work, still going to the supermarket after picking up the kids from school.
I wonder how many people there are like me vs people who are still leaving their house a great deal.

Further, the absolute STATE of my local retail park-

Pets at Home open, B & M open, B & Q open, The Range open, Boots open, Hobbycraft open. So what's happening? Well it's bloody rammed isn't it. There's a huge amount of people in the UK who CANNOT function without shopping so what on earth did the Government think would happen if they provided so many loopholes for so many unnecessary businesses?

We know that up to 80% of people with covid are asymptomatic or show very mild symptoms, we know our tracing system is failing, so how on earth can we have implemented such a half arsed lockdown?

 

[Stuart Munday]

Lockdown hasn't really affected us at all, me and the wife are both working as normal, the kids are at playgroup and school, we don't do many shops except for the supermarket and havnt been to the pub since the beginning of the year. We normally take the kids out to the countryside of the seaside or National Trust which we can still do so nothing has really changed.

Burgess Hill town centre which is depressing at the best of times still has Wilkinsons, Boots, Waitrose, WH Smith, butchers and the coffee shops open for takeaways, the smaller independent shops which could really do with the money and don't get many customers seem to be the ones losing out when the larger stores still have loads of people in them, im not sure this is really working.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Asda this morning was at least twice as busy as most weekends, with people just popping in for a drink/sandwich etc

Seems like people in this area are paying no attention and going to places that are open