François Fillon

[Gregory2Smith1]

when push comes to shove I can't see the socialists voting for Le Pen

Le Pen will probably have a strong first round,but the silent socialists and there are alot of them in France,will come out in force for the 2nd round of voting

the exit poll come 7th May will certainly be heart in the mouth stuff

 

[Stumpy Tim]

. Just like they supported staying in Europe here and for Hilary Clinton in the US? If we've learned one thing from this year it is that you cannot take people's votes for granted anymore. Make no mistake, Le Pen could win this election and that would be a disaster for France and for Europe.

While I agree with your sentiments, and we do live in strange times, the French system is so rigged against the National Front I don't think it'll happen there. But as you say, you never know

 

[Medwayseagull]

While I agree with your sentiments, and we do live in strange times, the French system is so rigged against the National Front I don't think it'll happen there. But as you say, you never know

At least it is not the American system which allows you to become president when you have nearly a million votes less than your opponent.

 

[Two Professors]

At least it is not the American system which allows you to become president when you have nearly a million votes less than your opponent.

 

[Two Professors]

Don't think the socialists would be that keen on Fillon.He supports an increase in working hours,a huge reduction in the civil service,quotas for immigrants,and the retirement age increasing to 65.Think my bet on Le Pen is looking better all the time!

 

[Soulman]

At least it is not the American system which allows you to become president when you have nearly a million votes less than your opponent.

Unfortunately our system is crook as well. A party with over 4 million votes, more than the Libs,SNP and Greens put together, should have about 83 seats.

 

[beorhthelm]

. Just like they supported staying in Europe here and for Hilary Clinton in the US? If we've learned one thing from this year it is that you cannot take people's votes for granted anymore.

France isnt UK or US. it would take a significant cultural shift for them to elect a far right Nationalist. they like tactical voting, so what Stumpy Tim wrote is pretty likely, strong first round from Le Pen then battered by a "anyone but Le Pen " vote comes out.

 

[Stumpy Tim]

At least it is not the American system which allows you to become president when you have nearly a million votes less than your opponent.

Or the British system then

 

[KingstonSeagull]

Frexit is on its way!

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

At least it is not the American system which allows you to become president when you have nearly a million votes less than your opponent.

But won significantly more states.

Great system.

 

[Austrian Gull]

Agree with Stumpy Tim's assessment about the two round system finishing off the FN. That's pretty much what happened in the last regional elections where the FN had the largest vote share in ROund 1 and ended with no regions after the head-to-head.

Bit of a surprise that Sarkozy is out and that Fillon was such a clear winner.

Has the Economy minister Macron got a hope, Gregory2 Smith1?

 

[Gregory2Smith1]

Agree with Stumpy Tim's assessment about the two round system finishing off the FN. That's pretty much what happened in the last regional elections where the FN had the largest vote share in ROund 1 and ended with no regions after the head-to-head.

Bit of a surprise that Sarkozy is out and that Fillon was such a clear winner.

Has the Economy minister Macron got a hope, Gregory2 Smith1?

Macron is probably one for the future,I'd imagine at some stage he'll go back to the PS

as soon as the fickle french have got fed up with Fillon

Macron could be a popular alternative 4 years from now

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

France isnt UK or US. it would take a significant cultural shift for them to elect a far right Nationalist. they like tactical voting, so what Stumpy Tim wrote is pretty likely, strong first round from Le Pen then battered by a "anyone but Le Pen " vote comes out.

. Let's hope you're both right!

 

[B-right-on]

He is a reformer which is what France needs. Le Pen winning will be bad news for us all, the rot that has set in across the world needs to stop

Exactly, thats why we got BREXIT, and then we got TRUMP.

Just look at the stuff going on in France, the terrible bomings, the so-called Jungle, the migrants there not wanting to come to the UK, the riots et al... France has 25% youth unemployment, thats 1 in 4 kids not able to get a job (UK is 13%) and overall has double our unemployment figures. There is a lot of unrest there which could be used to get voters to vote for reforms, thats what Farage and Trump did.

I would not be surprised at all if we got a FREXIT next year, never underestimate how p!ssed off the 'small man' is in this big ""EU Project" and if FREXIT means voting for Le Penn and her doing a deal with the Socialists, who knows...........

 

[warmleyseagull]

The big difference is that Leave and Trump were all polling in mid to late 40s and were running very close to the opposition. Le Pen is polling mid-20s and will do really, really well to get a whole lot more.

Er, well try this: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...rench-presidential-lead-sarkozy-a7428126.html. Yes, the poll reflects MLP vs. Sarkozy which is not going to happen, but I believe she will get far more of the left vote than her father did. Fillon is favourite but I still think my 3/1 bet on MLP is good value...

 

[Gwylan]

Er, well try this: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...rench-presidential-lead-sarkozy-a7428126.html. Yes, the poll reflects MLP vs. Sarkozy which is not going to happen, but I believe she will get far more of the left vote than her father did. Fillon is favourite but I still think my 3/1 bet on MLP is good value...

But that just endorses what I said earlier - she's polling in the 20s. She may get some left voters but not many. She'll get more than her father but not enough to come close to Fillon or Juppé . It will be an interesting battle with Fillon as he's not so much an old guard politician like Juppé or Sarko (even though he was PM). She won't be able to use the 'new broom ' argument that Trump used so effectively

 

[RandyWanger]

Fillon wins conservative candidacy with 67% of votes.

 

[nicko31]

Fillon wins conservative candidacy with 67% of votes.

Not the result Le Pen wanted

Tories v UKIP, instead of Labour v UKIP

 

[Buzzer]

Not the result Le Pen wanted

Tories v UKIP, instead of Labour v UKIP

??

There was always going to be a conservative candidate. This is just the election for which candidate.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

??

There was always going to be a conservative candidate. This is just the election for which candidate.

The point is Fillon is not exactly far right but he is more right wing than anything the French have seen for a long time. It's a nightmare for Le Pen as now instead of mobilising people who would otherwise vote for Fillon, she has to try to split his vote. Juppe would have been a far better target.