FFP latest predictions

[mickybha]

http://www.financialfairplay.co.uk/...ubs-can-expect-to-receive-a-transfer-embargo-

 

[Max Paper]

Very interesting

Brighton

Profit/Loss -£14.8m

Chance of transfer embargo - Unlikely

Advocates for FFP who have cut costs to meet thresholds. Equity injection will probably be required.

 

[Everest]

Very interesting

Brighton

Profit/Loss -£14.8m

Chance of transfer embargo - Unlikely

Advocates for FFP who have cut costs to meet thresholds. Equity injection will probably be required.

I think you should have made it clear the the -£14.8m relates to 2012/13.

 

[Insel affe]

With Championship clubs due to submit their Fair Play information to the Football League by 1 December, it is worth considering which clubs are likely to have breached the rules and the likely impact.

Looking at the Championship clubs, 9 are viewed as being ‘Likely’ or ‘Very Likely’ to receive a Transfer Embargo from January.


The Football League will look back at the season 2013/14 and determine which clubs exceeded the permitted loss limits for that season. During 2013/14 clubs were able to make losses up to £3m for the season (rising to a maximum of £8m if the owner was prepared to put their hand in their pocket to inject equity [i.e. not loans] into the club to cover the difference).

Some expenditure is excluded (such as charitable donations, promotion bonuses, and youth development expenditure). N.B. Championship Youth Development costs are unlikely to be much over £700k.


Club
2012/13 profit/loss
Transfer ban likelihood
Notes
Birmingham
-£4m
Very likely
Results released in HK for 2013/14 suggest losses above threshold. Owner unlikely to have inject equity
Blackburn
-£36.5m
Very likely
Club have already stated a transfer ban is to be expected
Blackpool
£4.6m
Unlikely
Bottom of table with well-documented issues but costs seem to be under control
Bolton
-£50.6m
Very likely
Club over £160m in debt and recent press reports that club may be sold.
Bournemouth
-£15.3m
Very likely
The 12/13 loss related to L1 – costs will have increased since then. £5.75m cash for Lallana in July unlikely to be enough to remove ban for Summer
Brentford
-£6m
Hard to call
Likely to need an equity injection from owner and probably OK if injection made
Brighton
-£14.8m
Unlikely
Advocates for FFP who have cut costs to meet thresholds. Equity injection will probably be required.
Cardiff
N/A
Not possible
Ex PL club so no ban possible until 2015/16
Charlton
-£6m
Hard to call
Likely to need an equity injection from owner and probably OK if injection made. New owners net spenders this season.
Derby
-£7.1m
Unlikely
Sold naming rights to stadium last season but will need equity injection. Tfr profit last season and subsequent spending suggests club will be within limits
Fulham
N/A
Not possible
Ex PL club so no ban possible until 2015/16
Huddersfield
-£4m
Unlikely
Advocates for FFP and want interactive FFP controls
Ipswich
-£9.8m
Unlikely
Club cut costs and McCarthy announced “we are keeping to FFP rules, I’m damn sure not everyone else is”
Leeds
-£9.4m
Likely
It is hard to envisage either owner having injected the equity to cover losses over £3m. Sale of McCormack for £10.4m will help 2014/15 results.
Middlesbrough
-£14m
Very likely
Owner likely to inject equity but despite cost-cutting, unlikely to be within threshold
Millwall
-£1.9m
Very unlikely
Costs under control and don’t appear to have paid a transfer fee for last two seasons
Norwich
N/A
Not possible
Ex PL club so no ban possible until 2015/16
Nottingham Forest
-£17.1m
Very likely
Likely ban reported by local press. Club spent heavily last season and reinvested sales proceeds in Summer on new signings.
Reading
-£2.3m
Hard to call
Parachute payments will have helped considerably but whether they cut costs enough is hard to call. New owner in place before end of financial year so equity injection likely. Key player sales will help 2014/15 position.
Rotherham
-0.5m
Very unlikely
A club used to keeping costs under control
Sheffield Wed
-£3.7m
Unlikely
Appear to have kept costs under control and require minimal (if any) equity
Watford
£0.2m
Unlikely
Low net spend over last two seasons
Wigan
£0.8
Very unlikely
Parachute payments and sale of McCarthy for £13m should see Wigan OK
Wolves
-£30.4m
Very likely
Hard to envisage losses in their promotion-season from L1 being below threshold.
Of the three clubs that were promoted to the Premier League last season, Leicester and QPR are expected to have incurred total fines or around £50m in total:

Club
2012/13 profit/loss
Fair Play tax likelihood
Notes
Leicester
-£34m
Very likely
Fine could easily be around £20m
Burnley
-£7.6m
Hard to call
Owner likely to have injected equity and any fine (if there were one) would be very low (i.e. less than £250k)
QPR
-£65.4
Very likely
Fine probably somewhere between £27m and £35m


How the embargo works

Any embargo would be applied before the start of January Transfer window. Under the ban, a club could still players however they will only be able to sign a player if it is on a ‘one a one-out, one in’ basis where both the following conditions apply:

The club has fewer than 24 registered players, and
The incoming player has wages of below 75% of the departing player.
Once an embargo is applied a club can apply in March to the Football League to have the ban removed. However the removal of the ban cannot take place until 31 May 2015 and will only occur where the club has submitted Interim Information that confirms the club is on target to pass the FFP test in the following December (i.e. relating to the 2014/15 Season).

It is therefore possible that some of the clubs that start their transfer embargo in 1 January 2015 will not have their ban removed during next summer’s transfer window.

Possible changes to the FFP rules

On 6th November Championship clubs are due to meet to discuss and vote on new FFP rules. The current version of the rules were voted in by member clubs in April 2012; meetings to update the existing rules took place towards the end of last season but clubs could not agree on a new measure. Any new rules are unlikely to impact on any transfer embargoes due to be applied in January (although they could potentially impact on any transfer embargoes relating to summer 2015.

With so many disparate interests and different financial positions amongst clubs in the Championship, gaining a consensus on one set of rules or approach is again likely to prove difficult.

 

[Diego Napier]

Good link, interesting update & clarifications, thanks.

 

[Dave the OAP]

So why are we unlikely with £14.9 million loss, but middles boro likely with £14 million loss?

Also the notts forest comment is interesting....they sold players to reinvest in new players...surely that is the only way a team can survive. Are they now talking about restricting transfer values so the ins and outs fall withing a FFP threshold?

 

[Uncle C]

Surely this pattern of spending in the Championship is not sustainable. All bar 2 clubs lost money the biggest being -£65m. The largest gain was less than £1m !

I see a collapse coming any time soon.

 

[drew]

What isn't clear is whether the figures posted relate to the clubs actual profit and loss or the one that specifically relates to the FFP criteria, ie excluding capital expenditure on infrastructure, youth development etc etc. Also, this isn't an official league website.

 

[Insel affe]

"With so many disparate interests and different financial positions amongst clubs in the Championship, gaining a consensus on one set of rules or approach is again likely to prove difficult."

Is this code for it won't work and is any attempt to hand down fines and embargo's will more than likely be challenged and overturned, therefore rendering FFP pointless and practically unenforceable ?

 

[Icy Gull]

Very interesting but will this place us in a great position come the January window? Quite a few clubs SHOULD have an embargo, no?

Clutching at straws here, FFP will be challenged and sweet FA will happen in the near future.

 

[KZNSeagull]

What isn't clear is whether the figures posted relate to the clubs actual profit and loss or the one that specifically relates to the FFP criteria, ie excluding capital expenditure on infrastructure, youth development etc etc. Also, this isn't an official league website.

I assume it is actual profit and loss, since FFP accounts have not been created as yet. No, that is not an official website and that page is just giving an opinion based on what is already in the public domain. Not long now until we find out the reality - should be interesting!

 

[Everest]

So why are we unlikely with £14.9 million loss, but middles boro likely with £14 million loss?

As I posted above, "I think you should have made it clear the the -£14.8m relates to 2012/13"
The set of figures we should be worried about won't be announced until next month.

 

[Gwylan]

So why are we unlikely with £14.9 million loss, but middles boro likely with £14 million loss?

We've sold Bridcutt, Barnes, Ulloa, Buckley (and El Abd) since then and only bought COG and Baldock - net profit about £12m. Who have Boro sold? We've also got high earners like Kuszcak and Orlandi off the wages bill. They've also acquired some big names since then - outbidding us for Clayton.

One thing that I don't understand about those FFP figures. They state that ex-PL clubs aren't subject to FFP rules, yet a few weeks ago there were lots of stories in the press about how QPR may have to be relegated to the conference for breaching FFP. Do the rules apply to PL clubs or not?

 

[Cadiz Seagull]

Meeting to discuss changing the rules today. Gonna be a stormy meeting

 

[JCL666]

Surely this pattern of spending in the Championship is not sustainable. All bar 2 clubs lost money the biggest being -£65m. The largest gain was less than £1m !

I see a collapse coming any time soon.

It's crazy isn't it?


Although I'm a bit shocked that Millwall are effectively a "model" club for this division. This is their 5th consecutive season in the Championship and they are "only" running at a £1.9 Million loss.

(Insane that 1.9 million is seen as ok)

 

[Albion Dan]

So why are we unlikely with £14.9 million loss, but middles boro likely with £14 million loss?

Also the notts forest comment is interesting....they sold players to reinvest in new players...surely that is the only way a team can survive. Are they now talking about restricting transfer values so the ins and outs fall withing a FFP threshold?

We are unlikely as Barber is on record as saying we are under the limit and there would have been all sorts of accountancy games going on to fro t load debt prior to the rules taking effect. Also we have sold about £12m of talent and spent About £3m over the last 12 months. Boro have invested heavily to sort out their squad. Seems to have paid dividends as they look a good bet for promotion even if they have an embargo.

 

[Everest]

One thing that I don't understand about those FFP figures. They state that ex-PL clubs aren't subject to FFP rules, yet a few weeks ago there were lots of stories in the press about how QPR may have to be relegated to the conference for breaching FFP. Do the rules apply to PL clubs or not?

QPR were in the Championship last season. It is that season FFP will be dealing with.

 

[Gwylan]

Is this code for it won't work and is any attempt to hand down fines and embargo's will more than likely be challenged and overturned, therefore rendering FFP pointless and practically unenforceable ?

Possibly, but clubs not going to be hit by FFP are in the majority so you can bet they'll vote for the status quo - I can't see there being much sympathy for the likes of Bolton and Forest from Paul Barber

 

[Mattywerewolf]

As I posted above, "I think you should have made it clear the the -£14.8m relates to 2012/13"
The set of figures we should be worried about won't be announced until next month.

I also believe that the costs associated with the academy/stadium have been expensed heavily into 12/13 accounts where possible and so probably don't represent anticipated ongoing losses.

 

[Bozza]

So why are we unlikely with £14.9 million loss, but middles boro likely with £14 million loss?

Also the notts forest comment is interesting....they sold players to reinvest in new players...surely that is the only way a team can survive. Are they now talking about restricting transfer values so the ins and outs fall withing a FFP threshold?

The £14.9m was the loss for 2012-13. FFP comes into play for 2013-14 (the period which ended in June 2014). The Abion have made it very clear they were on track to be under the max £8m loss for this reporting year.

We've sold Bridcutt, Barnes, Ulloa, Buckley (and El Abd) since then and only bought COG and Baldock - net profit about £12m. Who have Boro sold? We've also got high earners like Kuszcak and Orlandi off the wages bill. They've also acquired some big names since then - outbidding us for Clayton.

As above, we were already on track for FFP compliance for 2013-14 before any player sales. Regardless, Buckley and Ulloa were sold after the first FFP reporting year ended. They will be in the accounts for 2014-15.

One thing that I don't understand about those FFP figures. They state that ex-PL clubs aren't subject to FFP rules, yet a few weeks ago there were lots of stories in the press about how QPR may have to be relegated to the conference for breaching FFP. Do the rules apply to PL clubs or not?

This is based on the assumption that QPR are relegated from the PL back into the Football League at the end of this season.

Then the conversation goes:

Football League: "You owe us £60m for your FFP failings."
QPR: "No chance."
Football League: "You can't re-enter the Football League then, go and find somewhere else to play."

In all likelihood, the FL and QPR would come to some sort of compromise deal.