EU Referendum NSC opinion poll 2015

[8ace]

The fact that businessmen in the UK want us to stay in the EU...

and

PaddyPower's latest odds for the EU referendum are:
• 1/5 In favour of staying in EU
• 3/1 In favour of exiting the EU

sort of cuts through the 'out' propaganda for me

If anyone genuinely believes we will vote to leave then that carpet is the greatest bet EVER - you should be shovelling it on.

 

[beorhthelm]

The fact that businessmen in the UK want us to stay in the EU...

its true that a large proportion of business want to stay in, but there's also a lot saying out. its far from a clear verdict as some would like to pretend, dont believe the "in" propaganda. as the bookies got the election and Labour leader so very wrong early doors, i dont think you should give that much weight.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d59f345e-548a-11e5-8642-453585f2cfcd.html#axzz3mTKGNa4u
http://www.britishchambers.org.uk/press-office/press-releases/majority-of-businesses-support-a-referendum-on-eu-membership,-says-bcc.html
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/17/small-business-poll-shows-uk-divide-over-eu-referendum

 

[dingodan]

Wheel leaf.

 

[daveinprague]

its true that a large proportion of business want to stay in, but there's also a lot saying out. its far from a clear verdict as some would like to pretend, dont believe the "in" propaganda. as the bookies got the election and Labour leader so very wrong early doors, i dont think you should give that much weight.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d59f345e-548a-11e5-8642-453585f2cfcd.html#axzz3mTKGNa4u
http://www.britishchambers.org.uk/press-office/press-releases/majority-of-businesses-support-a-referendum-on-eu-membership,-says-bcc.html
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/17/small-business-poll-shows-uk-divide-over-eu-referendum

It will be an interesting vote.

 

[Brian Fantana]

I'm somewhat of a floating voter on this at the moment. Regardless, I think we've either got to be totally in or totally out. At the moment, we have a lot of the 'burdens' of the EU without many of the 'benefits'.

 

[BigGully]

I'm somewhat of a floating voter on this at the moment. Regardless, I think we've either got to be totally in or totally out. At the moment, we have a lot of the 'burdens' of the EU without many of the 'benefits'.

No one is totally in, it depends where your national interest is at any one time, the migrant crisis has shown that.

 

[heathgate]

If the vote was tomorrow, probably 55-45 in favour of leaving, as the vote is in 2017 then I think it may be a bit heavier in favour of leaving 70-30, mainly because the migrant crisis will reach epic proportions over the next 5 years and despite the obvious trading and investment benefits, the flow of extras arriving by the truckload every day, will be the prominent factor.

 

[La` Cucaracha¤]

Out. The welfare bill rose by £10 billion last year alone.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Out. The welfare bill rose by £10 billion last year alone.

You are so full of shit.

 

[Hampster Gull]

We will get the best results by having both feet in the EU camp, not the one foot we have now. Then we can shape our future, not watch others do it. Lots of support out their for a liberal (lower capital) free market low integration future. Lets do it

 

[Seasidesage]

What a choice, incompetent eurocrats v a bunch of child molesting, corrupt, hooray henry's...

Hobsons or what?

 

[Lincoln Imp]

If the vote was tomorrow, probably 55-45 in favour of leaving, as the vote is in 2017 then I think it may be a bit heavier in favour of leaving 70-30, mainly because the migrant crisis will reach epic proportions over the next 5 years and despite the obvious trading and investment benefits, the flow of extras arriving by the truckload every day, will be the prominent factor.

I said earlier that one of the problems the outers had was that they believed their own propaganda. My view may be wrong but the post above tends to support it. The Barclay brothers' Telegraph, which is often rabidly anti-EU, publishes a tracker poll (ie a poll of polls) indicating how people intend to vote in the referendum. Here's their current summary

"In the early 1980s the 'stay in' support was its lowest level but by the early 1990s it reached its peak. The mid-1990s saw the gap between the 'stay in' and 'get out' camps narrow significantly and on occasion "Brexit" has been a more popular option. Since 2014, however, support for staying in the European Union has once again increased. Support for Britain withdrawing from the EU has fallen to one of its all-time lowest levels."

This could change. Everything could go into reverse. The polls may be wrong. The bloke in the pub might be right. But as things stand, the public don't agree with those who want out. And given that there aren't 'truckloads of migrants' arriving every day I am not sure what you're basing your prediction of a vast shift of opinion over the next 18 months or so.

 

[sir albion]

The fact that businessmen in the UK want us to stay in the EU...

and

PaddyPower's latest odds for the EU referendum are:
• 1/5 In favour of staying in EU
• 3/1 In favour of exiting the EU

sort of cuts through the 'out' propaganda for me

That's what the EU is about though....Even the middle to upper classes in Greece wanted in while the lower classes wanted out.Its the lower classes that suffer the most while the wealthy get richer.

 

[sir albion]

I said earlier that one of the problems the outers had was that they believed their own propaganda. My view may be wrong but the post above tends to support it. The Barclay brothers' Telegraph, which is often rabidly anti-EU, publishes a tracker poll (ie a poll of polls) indicating how people intend to vote in the referendum. Here's their current summary

"In the early 1980s the 'stay in' support was its lowest level but by the early 1990s it reached its peak. The mid-1990s saw the gap between the 'stay in' and 'get out' camps narrow significantly and on occasion "Brexit" has been a more popular option. Since 2014, however, support for staying in the European Union has once again increased. Support for Britain withdrawing from the EU has fallen to one of its all-time lowest levels."

This could change. Everything could go into reverse. The polls may be wrong. The bloke in the pub might be right. But as things stand, the public don't agree with those who want out. And given that there aren't 'truckloads of migrants' arriving every day I am not sure what you're basing your prediction of a vast shift of opinion over the next 18 months or so.

Depends what you mean by truck loads as we get 330,000 from the EU alone a year and you can be sure many more get into this country from outside the EU.

 

[Buzzer]

I said earlier that one of the problems the outers had was that they believed their own propaganda..

To be fair doesn't everyone believe their own propaganda?

I'm sure that the most rabid pro-EU supporters believe their version to be the truth. I've no doubt that back in 1999 Lord Mandelson, the CBI and Eddie Izzard truly believed that the UK's staying out of the Euro would have meant that we would become an economic backwater and not able to enjoy all the promised benefits of a single currency that Greece, Ireland, Spain and Germany et al would enjoy. They and others all warned us of this often. History has proven them very wrong but they were honestly held beliefs and likewise I'm sure they felt that they had the support of most reasonable people. There's evidence that backs up both sides' positions and just shows how unpredictable politics is.

What I do take slight umbrage with is this repeated assignment of the word 'propaganda' used only to describe the Outers' point of view. It rather suggests that only one side is telling the truth and one side is spinning the stories to their favour. The reality is of course that both sides are spinning their propaganda for their own ends.

 

[heathgate]

This could change. Everything could go into reverse. The polls may be wrong. The bloke in the pub might be right. But as things stand, the public don't agree with those who want out. And given that there aren't 'truckloads of migrants' arriving every day I am not sure what you're basing your prediction of a vast shift of opinion over the next 18 months or so.

Metaphorically speaking of course Mr Pedant.

It is the key issue that will dictate the way the 'popular' vote goes. Never mind the politically and economically aware minorities, the majority vote on the popular issue of dicussion, and that IS and WILL be the migration issue. Dont forget, once those helpful Germans and her allies have welcomed in their fill, those people will then be welcome to move, work and live anywhere in the EU,...

 

[Lincoln Imp]

To be fair doesn't everyone believe their own propaganda?

I'm sure that the most rabid pro-EU supporters believe their version to be the truth. I've no doubt that back in 1999 Lord Mandelson, the CBI and Eddie Izzard truly believed that the UK's staying out of the Euro would have meant that we would become an economic backwater and not able to enjoy all the promised benefits of a single currency that Greece, Ireland, Spain and Germany et al would enjoy. They and others all warned us of this often. History has proven them very wrong but they were honestly held beliefs and likewise I'm sure they felt that they had the support of most reasonable people. There's evidence that backs up both sides' positions and just shows how unpredictable politics is.

What I do take slight umbrage with is this repeated assignment of the word 'propaganda' used only to describe the Outers' point of view. It rather suggests that only one side is telling the truth and one side is spinning the stories to their favour. The reality is of course that both sides are spinning their propaganda for their own ends.

Yes, propaganda is everywhere but the Outers are much more shouty when staking out their position. Opinions are presented as facts and (this was my point) their campaign will be hindered by their belief that any view but their own is delusional, and held by a minority.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

. Dont forget, once those helpful Germans and her allies have welcomed in their fill, those people will then be welcome to move, work and live anywhere in the EU,...

No they won't. They may become residents, but most certainly not nationals ie EU passport holders.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Depends what you mean by truck loads as we get 330,000 from the EU alone a year and you can be sure many more get into this country from outside the EU.

I just made the point that the outers (I assume you are one) seem very happy to make up things and present them as facts. This is a good example. Your figure is wrong.

 

[Buzzer]

Yes, propaganda is everywhere but the Outers are much more shouty when staking out their position. Opinions are presented as facts and (this was my point) their campaign will be hindered by their belief that any view but their own is delusional, and held by a minority.

I think we'll have to agree to disagree on this.