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[Albion] 'Enough with the data obsession, in the real world only goals for and against count'

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Weststander

Members
Aug 25, 2011
54,018
Withdean area
One thing impressive xG and xP metrics can’t prevent in a single season, is a relegation. Bmuff and Watford had admirable metrics, but lost their places at the top table. Whilst stink the league out Newcastle and CP stayed up with some ease, again.

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blue-shifted

Banned
Feb 20, 2004
7,645
a galaxy far far away
Very good points.

Leeds, Spurs and Liverpool took us on in a pure football contest.

Hodgson and Allardyce set up to kill the game and try to nick a result.

Without the ££££ quality of ManC (and Liverpool of recent seasons), it’s incredibly hard to break down ten men with clear openings. I remember Carvalhal boasting about it post match when his doomed Swansea team beat Liverpool in January 2018 "I said to my players that Liverpool were a top team, they are really strong, but they are a Formula 1 car. If you put a Formula 1 car in London in traffic, the Formula 1 car will not run very fast," His ten man defence chiselled out a 1-0 win.

I know this has been said a thousand times, but Hodgson and Allardyce only got those results, due to almost unimaginable levels of fortune.

On the other side of it, yes I know we played well against Liverpool, but they had good enough chances to at least draw, Salah missed a couple of chances he would normally bury.

In the same vein any team who sets up like that against City whilst they're in rampant form, they might get something, but play the game out 10 times, they'll lose 9
 

Weststander

Members
Aug 25, 2011
54,018
Withdean area
I know this has been said a thousand times, but Hodgson and Allardyce only got those results, due to almost unimaginable levels of fortune.

On the other side of it, yes I know we played well against Liverpool, but they had good enough chances to at least draw, Salah missed a couple of chances he would normally bury.

In the same vein any team who sets up like that against City whilst they're in rampant form, they might get something, but play the game out 10 times, they'll lose 9

I’m as gutted as anyone at the ‘injustice’ or ‘ill luck’ at the two recent losses.

But Allardyce teams and any version of CP are masters at winning when they’re shit. They set up to cede possession, and nick a win through height and obstructing a keeper at a set piece, or through a counter when a decent team has camped almost everyone forward. Sadly, it comes off several times a season, this time to our cost.

Radio Sussex on Saturday gave the startling stat that 7 our of our 8 most recent EPL wins came when we had less than 50% possession, which is a rarity for us. Revealing after a such a big sample (with the non-wins), that we struggle to win against opponents willing to play by means than our own ethos.

Add, being architects of our downfall; two missed pens and killer defensive lapses.

It’s no good the club/players/fans feeling sorry for ourselves. The manager, team and recruitment department need to work at making the ‘unfairness of it all’ far less likely.
 

Guinness Boy

“Self appointed racist finder general”
All-powerful Moderator
Jul 23, 2003
28,832
Up and Coming Sunny Portslade
Yes. So why do you not think the players use it!?

I didn't say that. I asked if the first thing Maupay did after a game was ask about his xGf

EVEN GRAHAM POTTER DOES NOT SEE MUCH USE IN XG. IT'S BEEN ALL OVER THE SITE ALL WEEK. AND NO ONE WOULD KNOW WHAT MAUPAY'S PERSONAL XGF WAS WHEN PEOPLE ARE PILING IN TO THE DRESSING ROOM TO CELEBRATE A WIN OR, IN OUR CASE, YET ANOTHER DEEPLY DISAPPOINTING AND FRUSTRATING NON WIN AT HOME

PS: is there a reason you mods are ignoring my requests for post deletions and account deletion?

If you don't want to use the site don't use it. If you do, engage properly, instead of merely reporting posts and having a sign off that a trainee social worker would think twice before using.
 

dazzer6666

Members
Mar 27, 2013
44,885
Burgess Hill
I didn't say that. I asked if the first thing Maupay did after a game was ask about his xGf

EVEN GRAHAM POTTER DOES NOT SEE MUCH USE IN XG. IT'S BEEN ALL OVER THE SITE ALL WEEK. AND NO ONE WOULD KNOW WHAT MAUPAY'S PERSONAL XGF WAS WHEN PEOPLE ARE PILING IN TO THE DRESSING ROOM TO CELEBRATE A WIN OR, IN OUR CASE, YET ANOTHER DEEPLY DISAPPOINTING AND FRUSTRATING NON WIN AT HOME



If you don't want to use the site don't use it. If you do, engage properly, instead of merely reporting posts and having a sign off that a trainee social worker would think twice before using.

They probably would, the analysts code in real time during the game using Sportscode (including at well below PL level) :).......whether anyone cares at that point is another question altogether though
 


Guinness Boy

“Self appointed racist finder general”
All-powerful Moderator
Jul 23, 2003
28,832
Up and Coming Sunny Portslade
As he comes off the pitch, he probably gets told 'you missed a hatful again then' - which is pretty much the same thing!

Or, if he has scored and we have won (Leeds) deep joy and reliving of the goal (as has been seen with other teams in the All or Nothing documentaries). In other words what you have seen and remember with your own eyes.

Of course that will be reviewed in the week in a performance and video analysis. Everyone does it.
 

Guinness Boy

“Self appointed racist finder general”
All-powerful Moderator
Jul 23, 2003
28,832
Up and Coming Sunny Portslade
Hence I said not as facetiously as you said. I would be surprised if one of the first things they do after recovery work from the game is look at their performance and stats. So, yes, I disagree with you.

Also: I have explained this before. Simple going away does not stop me being associated with the abuse and vile posts on here. I report posts that are abusive and wrong. Isn't that what the report function is for? FFS you all keep saying if I think it's bad report it, now you say don't. Which is it!?

You deliberately misrepresented what I had said.

I don't understand your second paragraph at all. I suspect you really can't keep away from NSC because you still want to try and dictate the content. It's time to pick a side chap. All or nothing.
 

andy1980

Members
Feb 23, 2009
1,704
People go on about xGf because its an obvious thing to see. At the begining of the season our xga was lower than the goals we conceded. We sorted that out by putting Sannchez in goal. We cant sort out our goal scoring until the summer, so we should be looking at ways to counter that problem.

People who go on about how important stats are seem to ignore 1stat that is as easy to see as xg. That is 6 of our last 8 wins (since we come back from covid) we have had less possesion than the opposition. If people really cared what the stats say then this would be spoken about as much as xg.
 

Johnny RoastBeef

Wanna balloon?
Jan 11, 2016
2,728
People go on about xGf because its an obvious thing to see. At the begining of the season our xga was lower than the goals we conceded. We sorted that out by putting Sannchez in goal. We cant sort out our goal scoring until the summer, so we should be looking at ways to counter that problem.

People who go on about how important stats are seem to ignore 1stat that is as easy to see as xg. That is 6 of our last 8 wins (since we come back from covid) we have had less possesion than the opposition. If people really cared what the stats say then this would be spoken about as much as xg.


As I demonstrated earlier, that possession stat is an anomaly. We actually scored more goals in the games when we dominated possession. By reducing our possession we would potentially reduce our goals scored which is not a sensible stratergy, regardless of past performance.

Stating the obvious, We just need to put away the chances we create.
 

andy1980

Members
Feb 23, 2009
1,704
As I demonstrated earlier, that possession stat is an anomaly. We actually scored more goals in the games when we dominated possession. By reducing our possession we would potentially reduce our goals scored which is not a sensible stratergy, regardless of past performance.

Stating the obvious, We just need to put away the chances we create.

For me it shows we need to be organised out of possesion. We have a lot more games when we dominate possesion but we dont particulary score more goals.

We are a possesion based team who wins more when we have less possesion that is what the stats actually say.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
Oct 8, 2003
40,642
Faversham
I don't care about how many people are banging on about only 1 home win and terrible strikers, it has been a very frustrating and unlucky season, but the team is playing in the right way and looking like a premier league side rather than a championship side looking to defend most of the time and nick something on the break.
Things can change quite quickly in football, as has happened in Scotland where Rangers have been miles behind Celtic in recent seasons but have turned it around.
I wouldn't be surprised if a top 10 finish happens for Brighton next season as long as the 8/1 odds of staying up this time are correct.

This. It's the first season I've felt we are a proper premier league club and not just plucky interlopers.

Someone posted, above, that our wins agains Spurs, Liverpool and Leeds were 'Hughtonesque'. One of the most absurd things I've read in a long time. I await a description of Boris' leadership as Churchillian.

****.jpg
 

BBassic

I changed this.
Jul 28, 2011
10,603
I'm a data guy. I work with data for a living so I find basically any data set to be inherently interesting because of what it can tell us about X, Y or Z.

XG is one such dataset and yeah, it's become a super interesting part of football analysis.

However, right now, I don't give a single smudge of a f**k about our XG. I want goals. Nothing else.
 

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