[Politics] Brexit

[5ways]

Fatuous comment.





............and not even remotely amusing.

I was amused

 

[portslade seagull]

Is 5ways part of Cameron's campaign team ....

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I think we are truly blessed on NSC as numerous posters on the remain side are constantly telling us exactly what the negotiating position of the EU will be in this completely one off situation with no precedent ... some must work for the EU or have access to a crystal ball.

 

[Maldini]

You have some serious chutzpah, accusing me of pedalling myths and then spouting a load of unevidenced nonsense.

On wages - there is mixed evidence (some studies have shown no negative impact, some a small negative impact particularly amongst the low skilled, and a couple a positive impact). This article from the Huffington Post (albeit a couple of years old) has a decent summary of the evidence. Fundamentally though, you keep coming back to this idea that there's a fixed number of jobs and that immigrants are 'taking' jobs from residents, and as I've said, it's simply not an accurate depiction, certainly not at a macro level. Economic activity creates more economic activity. Migrant workers create jobs for other residents, whether you like it or not.

On government finances - I didn't say that the government is awash with cash. What I said is that it's their decision to build hospitals, nurseries, etc. If migrants create economic activity, they create government revenue, through the taxes that they pay and the businesses that they work for. The government can then choose what to do with that cash (and indeed what level to generate it at in terms of tax rates). This government have chosen to prioritise narrowing the tax base and reducing business taxation - they could instead have chosen to build hospitals and other public services.



Sorry, but these answers are mostly nonsensical. Trade creates jobs and economic activity. Any (and I do mean any) economist will tell you that's true. Freedom of movement with the EU has created jobs - FACT. That's not to say that they couldn't have been created elsewhere (e.g. if we had freedom of movement with the US or elsewhere) but they've been created thanks to trade with the EU.

I've answered most of the rest elsewhere (in terms of wages, government policy, etc.). On security, you acknowledge that most terrorism threats so far have come from EU-born nationals (both in the UK and France/Belgium), but then say that the more people we let in the more danger we put ourselves in. How do you reconcile those two points?

I have no problem with you having an opposing view - but trying to present your own unevidenced hypotheses as self-evident facts does your argument no favours.

EU workers lower wages.Yes they are taking jobs from residents.Of course they are.What are you talking about.

Most of them are taking jobs from British workers and paying less tax due to working for less wages.A handful create jobs but we lose far more than we gain.Far more.
Migrants do not create extra revenue.Even if they did,let's say they created enough to pay for more schools,housing etc,then what are we left with.All the extra money is spent.
We don't gain.All we've gained is a big increase in population.I don;t want my town overrun with foreign workers even if they pay their way and that's how many others feel.

Security? yes of course the more we let in the more danger we are under. The fact so far they have been mostly home grown does not mean we should have open borders.The Remain camp need to stop claiming we are safer in the EU. Consider Paris and Brussels.

You keep coming out with ridiculous claims when it's clear you're way off the mark.

 

[Maldini]

.

I'm surprised anyone is swayed by any economic forecasts

I agree.Forecasts from both sides is guess work.

The Remain camp are basing their desire to stay in the EU on economics which cannot be proved.The Brexit camp are basing there's to a large extent on the large influx of migrants which yes can be proved.Fact v Fiction.

 

[Maldini]

The inability of some of those favouring Brexit to understand the difference between 'free access to the single market' and 'trade' is apparently never-ending.

.

The inability of some of those favouring Remain to understand that economics is not the main issue for the Brexit camp is apparently never ending.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

I think we are truly blessed on NSC as numerous posters on the remain side are constantly telling us exactly what the negotiating position of the EU will be in this completely one off situation with no precedent ... some must work for the EU or have access to a crystal ball.

No one claims to know exactly how post-Brexit negotiations will go or even what will be on the agenda but the concept of free movement is so central to the philosophy of the EU and of its predecessor organisations that no crystal ball is needed to be sure that it will not abandon its founding principles to cut a deal with the UK.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

The inability of some of those favouring Remain to understand that economics is not the main issue for the Brexit camp is apparently never ending.

Well it's far from being the only issue that's for sure. At the same time it's easy for some of us to pronounce that things like quality of life and personal freedoms are more important than dirty old economics. For the hard pressed bloke with a mortgage and commitments and a precarious job with a foreign direct investment company that's mainly in the UK because it's a gateway to the EU then they're all the same thing. Economics doesn't function in a vacuum. That might be one reason that support for the EU is stronger in the north

 

[sten_super]

You keep coming out with ridiculous claims when it's clear you're way off the mark.

The problem is you're not interested in evidence, preferring your own unevidenced opinions. That makes it rather difficult to debate with you. For that reason I'm out.

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

Well it's far from being the only issue that's for sure. At the same time it's easy for some of us to pronounce that things like quality of life and personal freedoms are more important than dirty old economics. For the hard pressed bloke with a mortgage and commitments and a precarious job with a foreign direct investment company that's mainly in the UK because it's a gateway to the EU then they're all the same thing. Economics doesn't function in a vacuum. That might be one reason that support for the EU is stronger in the north

Is it though? not according to this it's not.... https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/28/eurosceptic-map-britain/

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Is it though? not according to this it's not.... https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/28/eurosceptic-map-britain/

Fair enough. NW and NE was coming out more Remain than the SE and SW in a report I saw a couple of weeks ago but things are moving around all the time I guess.

 

[GoldWithFalmer]

Fair enough. NW and NE was coming out more Remain than the SE and SW in a report I saw a couple of weeks ago but things are moving around all the time I guess.

Striking thing about that map is for me Scotland,i guess if we vote to leave the EU,it will probably lead to the breaking up of the Union...

And of course Brighton and Hove.......

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Striking thing about that map is for me Scotland,i guess if we vote to leave the EU,it will probably lead to the breaking up of the Union...

And of course Brighton and Hove.......

You could be right about Scotland although many Brexiters insist they will definitely not leave the union and they seem to know about these things.

 

[Jim in the West]

utterly ridiculous post
head in the clouds nonsense.

if there was a brexit ,one of the major contributing factors would be taking back control of our borders and stopping the free movement of people into this country.

who ever is no. 10 at the time of negotiations will be committing political suicide if they decide to ignore the outcome of the referendum and stick two fingers up and say we are going to sign up to free movement ......and your referendum result

they may be a daft bunch in westminster sometimes but ignoring the majority will of the people in the manner you describe would be beyond mental, you lot really should think about what you are going to scaremonger about next

I'm not scaremongering - I'm just highlighting that a Brexit vote may not automatically mean that the barriers will come up. It's entirely possible - indeed likely, I think - that those leading the negotiations on our side will want to get the most economically advantageous outcome for the UK, and that will mean having to accept free movement of labour, etc. We may end up outside the EU, but that doesn't mean no immigration.

 

[Maldini]

The problem is you're not interested in evidence, preferring your own unevidenced opinions. That makes it rather difficult to debate with you. For that reason I'm out.

I didn't notice any evidence from yourself.

Sometimes as with my points evidence isn't needed because common sense is enough.

Goodbye.

 

[Jim in the West]

I think we are truly blessed on NSC as numerous posters on the remain side are constantly telling us exactly what the negotiating position of the EU will be in this completely one off situation with no precedent ... some must work for the EU or have access to a crystal ball.

There are a couple of close precedents - firstly, Greenland left the EU in 1985. Secondly, we tried to negotiate trade deals with the EU when it was first set up, and failed abysmally.

It took Greenland three years to negotiate its post-EU deal, and it really only covered one issue - fish.

Whilst I accept we don't know for certain what the position of the EU would be post-Brexit, I think it is entirely reasonable to think that re-negotiating our position, with all its complexities, against the backdrop of anti-UK feeling within the EU, is going to be really tough. Especially as the EU will be doing its utmost to discourage any other member states from leaving. We could all take a gamble and assume it'll be easy - but why take that risk?

 

[yxee]

I'm not scaremongering - I'm just highlighting that a Brexit vote may not automatically mean that the barriers will come up. It's entirely possible - indeed likely, I think - that those leading the negotiations on our side will want to get the most economically advantageous outcome for the UK, and that will mean having to accept free movement of labour, etc. We may end up outside the EU, but that doesn't mean no immigration.

Sorry, why on earth would trade require free movement of labour?

The normal way to do it would be a normal trade agreement plus a correctly functioning merit-based immigration system.

International trade and secure borders is not a fantasy!

 

[Jim in the West]

Why believe all the Remain bias? Why not accept it's impossible to really know the outcome of Leave?
Why not answer how are we going to cope with 350k more migrants every year and that's without
those coming from new to be EU members like Turkey and it's 70m population?

Why o why o why.

By the way, between 300k - 400k people a year emigrate FROM the UK. Fortunately for us, a big chunk of those are retirees who end up in Spain, France and Italy - they don't work, and become burdens on the doctors and hospitals of our EU neighbours. And even more fortunately for us, most EU immigrants to the UK are relatively young, cost us relatively little in benefits, and they work damned hard - adding significantly to our economy.

 

[Jim in the West]

Sorry, why on earth would trade require free movement of labour?

The normal way to do it would be a normal trade agreement plus a correctly functioning merit-based immigration system.

International trade and secure borders is not a fantasy!

A no-tariff trade with the EU will require free movement of labour because those are the EU's rules. Sorry about that - it's not me that makes them up!
We could, of course, adopt the Albanian model lauded by Michael Gove. But this is just a stepping stone to Albania actually joining the EU, and doesn't give Albania access to the EU market without significant restrictions.

 

[Maldini]

By the way, between 300k - 400k people a year emigrate FROM the UK. Fortunately for us, a big chunk of those are retirees who end up in Spain, France and Italy - they don't work, and become burdens on the doctors and hospitals of our EU neighbours. And even more fortunately for us, most EU immigrants to the UK are relatively young, cost us relatively little in benefits, and they work damned hard - adding significantly to our economy.

They add nothing.They are just replacing.How many times do I have to say.

Answer me this.If in 30 years migrants account for around 30/40% of the population of your town would you be happy?