[Politics] Brexit

[dingodan]

Why they REALLY wanted Brexit. Dominic Raab, lovely. lovely man.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-19300051

I really hope they vote him leader.

Someone is in denial.

 

[peterward]

Anyway, it turns out that the first referendum was probably illegal....

Boris Johnson and Michael Gove under fire on Vote Leave’s law-breaking

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...pped?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_C opy_to_clipboard

Which is interesting.

So the campaign spending over run a bit and the proremain Guardian lists the outrage with a host of pro remain MPs talking of the illegality of the referendum which now makes it illegitimate..... It's all pretty desperate stuff. As if Gove or Johnson we running the campaign funding efforts...... And of course we never hear of the 9 million, yes 9 million quid extra the pro remain government spent on its pro remain literature sent to every UK house that wasn't included in the campaign funding rules. Whilst over spending shouldn't have happened on the leave side, This is a remain/establishment smear , completely unbalanced ignoring the fact the remain side spent millions more with the government leaflet.

It's just another cog in the machine of the establishments overturn brexit gameplay..... How about holding these lying ******** to their words and promises? Should be on permaloop outside Westminster.

 

[WATFORD zero]

So the campaign spending over run a bit and the proremain Guardian lists the outrage with a host of pro remain MPs talking of the illegality of the referendum which now makes it illegitimate..... It's all pretty desperate stuff. As if Gove or Johnson we running the campaign funding efforts...... And of course we never hear of the 9 million, yes 9 million quid extra the pro remain government spent on its pro remain literature sent to every UK house that wasn't included in the campaign funding rules. Whilst over spending shouldn't have happened on the leave side, This is a remain/establishment smear , completely unbalanced ignoring the fact the remain side spent millions more with the government leaflet.

It's just another cog in the machine of the establishments overturn brexit gameplay..... How about holding these lying ******** to their words and promises? Should be on permaloop outside Westminster.

So which is it that you want them to do, Customs Union or NI/Ireland hard border ?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

So which is it that you want them to do, Customs Union or NI/Ireland hard border ?

You never did answer my question .... Do the EU 'No deal' plans involve a customs union or a hard border?

 

[WATFORD zero]

You never did answer my question .... Do the EU 'No deal' plans involve a customs union or a hard border?

I think you will find that a hard border is a pre-requisite of any 'no deal' plan. (May have been worth asking that question, along with a few others, 3 years ago )

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46961982

So maybe you'll now answer my question. Which did you want, Customs Union or hard border ?

 

[seagulls4ever]

The polls are all over the place.

[tweet]1112107560222511110[/tweet]

[tweet]1112107512478736385[/tweet]

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I think you will find that a hard border is s pre-requisite of any 'no deal' plan. (May have been worth asking that question 3 years ago )

Well, that can't be true or else they would have already started building the infrastructure ages ago. Anyone would think there is a third option after all ....

 

[WATFORD zero]

Well, that can't be true or else they would have already started building the infrastructure ages ago. Anyone would think there is a third option after all ....

So maybe you'll now answer my question. Which did you want, Customs Union or hard border ?

(If you are going for the mythical third option which you've been searching for the last 3 years, where would you source the Unicorns and Pixies from ?)

 

[JC Footy Genius]

So maybe you'll now answer my question. Which did you want, Customs Union or hard border ?

(If you are going for the mythical third option which you've been searching for the last 3 years, where would you source the Unicorns and Pixies from ?)

Neither. You had better tell the EU to hurry up and start building some checkpoints then and to stop talking to the Irish government about third options.

The same place as your mythical WTO border enforcement police?

 

[ManOfSussex]

Neither. You had better tell the EU to hurry up and start building some checkpoints then and to stop talking to the Irish government about third options.

The same place as your mythical WTO border enforcement police?

It's alright Footy Genius, he doesn't need to - Angela Merkel is next week:

Angela Merkel will travel to Dublin on Thursday to deliver a blunt warning to the Irish government that the time for avoiding the border question is over. In a no-deal scenario, Dublin will be forced to control the entry of goods into the single market from Northern Ireland.

“They’ve done nothing so far,” said a senior EU diplomat. “It can’t continue like this. It doesn’t mean walls on the border but action has to be taken. In the end, you can’t escape reality.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...blames-political-meltdown-in-london-c0f098zbz

 

[peterward]

So which is it that you want them to do, Customs Union or NI/Ireland hard border ?

Neither are required..... Really. The whole backstop Irish Border issue, whilst of huge importance, is not based on anything to do with trade barriers, nor border posts. Its all about politics, its not needed and in the last week you would have seen a lot of articles that state, that in the event of what is branded as "no deal", the Irish and the EU are already planning for there not to be any physical border post controls. The UK always insisted they would never, the intransigence about it was always from the Irish/EU side.

When the UK came along with the malthouse compromise which showed clearly that technology could be used to do any checks away from the border, as is done successfully on the huge border between Norway and Sweden, the EU said they "didn't understand" our request and that it was "impossible", but lo and behold that is the exact plan they have on the event of no deal. Its wise to cut through the soundbites and statements in the press to the real substance. There wont be any controls on the border in any situation. But for pressure/leverage, and to ensure the EU keep the upper hand in any furture relationship talks (as they hold the veto to us leaving the terrible WA customs union backstop), they will not entertain changing it citing "movement of trade" "need to enforce border in event of no deal" but its all bull5hit.

http://www.cityam.com/275222/uk-and-ireland-talks-avoid-hard-border-no-deal-brexit

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0330/1039592-brexit-ireland/

Im not a hard brexiteer, but the customs union is a terrible idea,it takes away some of the biggest advantages of being outside the EU , in curtailing our ability to trade independently with the booming other 90% of the globe. In the customs Union the EU sell access to UK markets to the rest of the world and we can cut no deals. Within the EU much of the single/market customs union policy is based on (imho) the failed industrial/protectionist policies of the French. I honestly believe the customs union enthusiasts (whom are remainers) propose this a a halfway house to get fully back in. The one thing they really dont want is for Britain to sign trade deals with the US/China etc and to forge ahead, then there would never be any going back. A successful free trading UK on the doorstep of the EU is the worse thing that could happen to a pro EU fanatic, it would be the worst example to others thinking of leaving. Customs Union prevents that, and is the biggest hook to try and prevent the UK from slipping from the EU's orbit, thus why the backstop, with the only way out at the EU's discretion, is non negotiable to the EU. Its not an insurance policy, its a bridge to a permanent customs union and ensuring the UK's trading wings are permanently clipped.

I was actually quite content in the indicative votes with the Norway, EEA, Efta (without customs union) proposal, as it would give us access to single market (a far bigger bonus than customs union), it would fulfill my number 1 objective to get out of the political union (wanted no part in a future US of Europe), would allow us an emergency break to control immigration (if the numbers were proven to be excessive - as Lichenstein uses), would limit EU free movement migration to work based type entry and not to anyone, it would also allow us to trade with the world (though regulatory alignment with the EU is required) and like Norway, we could VETO EU directives, if we chose that were not in our interest (which is considerable as in the EU our national interest was on the losing side of EU wide majority votes over 70% of the time). And we'd pay in about 2/3 of what we do today. People say "you'll be rule takers not makers", we would be outside the political union and even when in, our main function was not as a rule maker but as a blocking vote with the more liberal free market economies Germany, Holland, Sweden and Denmark against the French dominated directional attempts within the EU.

Here is pretty good graphic that shows various options for/against.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Neither are required..... Really. The whole backstop Irish Border issue, whilst of huge importance, is not based on anything to do with trade barriers, nor border posts. Its all about politics, its not needed and in the last week you would have seen a lot of articles that state, that in the event of what is branded as "no deal", the Irish and the EU are already planning for there not to be any physical border post controls. The UK always insisted they would never, the intransigence about it was always from the Irish/EU side.

When the UK came along with the malthouse compromise which showed clearly that technology could be used to do any checks away from the border, as is done successfully on the huge border between Norway and Sweden, the EU said they "didn't understand" our request and that it was "impossible", but lo and behold that is the exact plan they have on the event of no deal. Its wise to cut through the soundbites and statements in the press to the real substance. There wont be any controls on the border in any situation. But for pressure/leverage, and to ensure the EU keep the upper hand in any furture relationship talks (as they hold the veto to us leaving the terrible WA customs union backstop), they will not entertain changing it citing "movement of trade" "need to enforce border in event of no deal" but its all bull5hit.

http://www.cityam.com/275222/uk-and-ireland-talks-avoid-hard-border-no-deal-brexit

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0330/1039592-brexit-ireland/

Im not a hard brexiteer, but the customs union is a terrible idea,it takes away some of the biggest advantages of being outside the EU , in curtailing our ability to trade independently with the booming other 90% of the globe. In the customs Union the EU sell access to UK markets to the rest of the world and we can cut no deals. Within the EU much of the single/market customs union policy is based on (imho) the failed industrial/protectionist policies of the French. I honestly believe the customs union enthusiasts (whom are remainers) propose this a a halfway house to get fully back in. The one thing they really dont want is for Britain to sign trade deals with the US/China etc and to forge ahead, then there would never be any going back. A successful free trading UK on the doorstep of the EU is the worse thing that could happen to a pro EU fanatic, it would be the worst example to others thinking of leaving. Customs Union prevents that, and is the biggest hook to try and prevent the UK from slipping from the EU's orbit, thus why the backstop, with the only way out at the EU's discretion, is non negotiable to the EU. Its not an insurance policy, its a bridge to a permanent customs union and ensuring the UK's trading wings are permanently clipped.

I was actually quite content in the indicative votes with the Norway, EEA, Efta (without customs union) proposal, as it would give us access to single market (a far bigger bonus than customs union), it would fulfill my number 1 objective to get out of the political union (wanted no part in a future US of Europe), would allow us an emergency break to control immigration (if the numbers were proven to be excessive - as Lichenstein uses), would limit EU free movement migration to work based type entry and not to anyone, it would also allow us to trade with the world (though regulatory alignment with the EU is required) and like Norway, we could VETO EU directives, if we chose that were not in our interest (which is considerable as in the EU our national interest was on the losing side of EU wide majority votes over 70% of the time). And we'd pay in about 2/3 of what we do today. People say "you'll be rule takers not makers", we would be outside the political union and even when in, our main function was not as a rule maker but as a blocking vote with the more liberal free market economies Germany, Holland, Sweden and Denmark against the French dominated directional attempts within the EU.

Here is pretty good graphic that shows various options for/against.

View attachment 106843

I'd love that solution as a way of complying with the referendum result.

Maybe it'll happen. I hope it does.

 

[vegster]

The polls are all over the place.

[tweet]1112107560222511110[/tweet]

[tweet]1112107512478736385[/tweet]

I think that we will struggle to even get a General Election. this from a political reporter....

The threat of an election immediately angered both pro-Brexit and pro-Remain MPs. May would need a two-thirds majority in the Commons to secure one, meaning a serious rebellion by Tories could block it. May would then be forced to secure an election by backing a no-confidence vote in her own government, which only requires a simple majority of MPs.
Foreign Office minister Alan Duncan said: “If we have a general election before Brexit is resolved, it will only make things worse.”

So we could have the hilarious situation where Mrs May organises a No Confidence vote on her own government !

 

[Motogull]

So we could have the hilarious situation where Mrs May organises a No Confidence vote on her own government !

And watch her bungle that too.

 

[stewart12]

I've missed something here- why on EARTH would May want to call a snap election?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I've missed something here- why on EARTH would May want to call a snap election?

To force the DUP into line. She’ll argue that if there’s a GE they could lose the current power and influence they’re enjoying .

 

[Two Professors]

All the Republic has to do is rejoin the United Kingdom-problem solved!

 

[golddene]

All the Republic has to do is rejoin the United Kingdom-problem solved!

Hello two professors, I am not in the lobby of insulting or denigrating any on here who post flippant comments and do not intend to start now, however, I trust this post was made completely tongue in cheek? if not then just WOW!

 

[peterward]

All the Republic has to do is rejoin the United Kingdom-problem solved!

Some complete idiot on LBC last week called in with a solution to the Irish border problem........ For the UK to invade Ireland!

 

[peterward]

I've missed something here- why on EARTH would May want to call a snap election?

I think the least worst option now for the Tories is a one year extension, new leader then a GE.

If she rams through her deal, just. The DUP may pull the supply and confidence agreement and the government falls.
If she tries to go for WTO clean brexit, remainers like Boles and Grieve will join NC motion with Labour and bring the government down.
If she tries to go for customs union, breaching manifesto and the referendum result for many, The ERG will join Labour in NC vote to bring government down.
If she calls a GE with her as PM they lose with current polling.
If she goes for extension, she can do what she loves anyway, procrastinate and kick the can down the road, both sides of her party will feel its still all to play for and will vote against any NC motion as will the DUP.