[Politics] Brexit

[synavm]

UKIP in it's current form has peaked. Nuttall, Evans won't stand a chance with safe Conservative seats, and I can't see either cutting through in the Labour heartlands. If, however, Steven Wolfe had become leader or Arron Banks ends up bankrolling a new party, I could see them being a serious threat in the North.

 

[Soulman]

UKIP are gonna win absolutely eff all in those safe Tory seats in suburban Sussex, or the safe Labour seats in other parts of the country. They may gain some grounds in some swingy seats but it won't be enough to change the political landscape. To put it simply, die hard Tory/Labour voters who also happen to be Brexiters are not suddenly gonna vote for someone else just because their beloved party MP voted against the grain. They don't have it in em.

You are probably correct, UKIP will probably not get the votes in those numbers again. As has been stated many times, UKIP have achieved their main goal. People wrote off Brexit, Trump and the Cons at the last 3 votes, we saw how that panned out.

 

[Baldseagull]

interesting
have you been extoling the virtues of Russia Today for its even handiness for long? cant remember you saying this.
strange state of affairs nowadays people will dismiss news before they look at it and assess it simply because of who is supplying it

definitely ties in with snowflakes who only want to hear what they agree with.

Tell me snowflake, why can't you hear what Dan Hannan says?

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Ok, iv'e dragged up my post, where do i "extols the virtues of Russia Today for its even-handedness"... ? See my post below.

Yesterday's Brexit Feet protest outside Parliament, courtesy of RT (The BBC must have been busy...)

"The UK people voted overwhelmingly to leave. This Parliament here is holding it up all they can."

"Politicians are stalling the process. They should trigger Article 50 straight away."

"There are lots of people out there who want to undo the will of the people."

"It is not only about the UK. When Britain leaves it is showing the way for the whole of the European nations, that they can have decisions of their own - Polish, French, Spanish, Greece."

#Brexit #Article50

The BBC rushed down to Parliament when the Remoaners had a gathering.

Hold on! Thanking Russia Today for covering an anti-parliament protest whilst saying that the BBC 'must have been busy' suggests to me that you think RT is more even-handed than the BBC.

You've been terrifically keen on Breitbart and the Daily Express as information sources in the past so it is logical enough to think that RT might be top of your pops too. Anyway, I wasn't criticising you for it. We all have our favourite media outlets.

 

[nicko31]

Its a mess.
Its going to get far worse and the Government do not have a clue what to do, meanwhile companies who import raw materials from Europe are already seeing their costs rise.
It was a mistake of monumental proportions.

Inflation is on its way for sure, companies will I'm sure take some of the FX hit but this will in turn hit profits and corp tax returns

Osborne predicted a £30B black hole in public finances and an emergency budget as part of project fear.

Project fear is fast becoming project reality. They are forecasting £122B hole over the next 4 years, so looks like he well end up being right. The only difference is instead of an emergency budget we just slap it on the nations credit card instead

The way things are going I wouldn't be at all surprised if the final deal offered from the EU going back out to another referendum. free movement / single market with fees or a hard brexit.

When people feel the pain public opinion may well change, no one want to be poorer, history shows money talks in the end

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Inflation is on its way for sure, companies will I'm sure take some of the FX hit but this will in turn hit profits and corp tax returns

Osborne predicted a £30B black hole in public finances and an emergency budget as part of project fear.

Project fear is fast becoming project reality. They are forecasting £122B hole over the next 4 years, so looks like he well end up being right. The only difference is instead of an emergency budget we just slap it on the nations credit card instead

The way things are going I wouldn't be at all surprised if the final deal offered from the EU going back out to another referendum. free movement / single market with fees or a hard brexit.

When people feel the pain public opinion may well change, no one want to be poorer, history shows money talks in the end

Billions of pounds will be spent online now and up until Xmas, that's doesn't feel like a country that is feeling the pain.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Billions of pounds will be spent online now and up until Xmas, that's doesn't feel like a country that is feeling the pain.

Yes, but never underestimate British consumers' ability to run riot with the plastic all the way up to when reality bites. And never underestimate reality's ability to bite. It always does, sooner rather than later in this case - domestic car sales are already heading south and frocks and toys won't be far behind. I think you're confusing a last-hurrah shopping binge with a soundly-based future.

 

[Baldseagull]

Inflation is on its way for sure, companies will I'm sure take some of the FX hit but this will in turn hit profits and corp tax returns

Osborne predicted a £30B black hole in public finances and an emergency budget as part of project fear.

Project fear is fast becoming project reality. They are forecasting £122B hole over the next 4 years, so looks like he well end up being right. The only difference is instead of an emergency budget we just slap it on the nations credit card instead

The way things are going I wouldn't be at all surprised if the final deal offered from the EU going back out to another referendum. free movement / single market with fees or a hard brexit.

When people feel the pain public opinion may well change, no one want to be poorer, history shows money talks in the end

It is frustrating to see so many of the guys who said yes, there will be some short term misery but we will come out the other side better for it, now denying even the short term misery.
I can accept that Britain may, in the long run, be better off as part of EFTA, rather than the EU, but when the same posters that advocate hard Brexit want to deny any long lasting difficulties for the economy, I wonder at how they became so deluded.
Leavers, bear in mind that all possibilities were on offer from leave campaigners, but you can't have all the best outcomes offered from any one Brexit deal.

 

[Soulman]

The Office for Budget Responsibility admits there is a 50% chance that their forecasts could be wrong. Not even 52 to 48, now that is "responsible " predicting/scaremongering.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

The Office for Budget Responsibility admits there is a 50% chance that their forecasts could be wrong. Not even 52 to 48, now that is "responsible " predicting/scaremongering.

It's a good job these people don't work in construction or mechanical engineering. They wouldn't survive and would be out of their jobs in a few jobs.

 

[Baldseagull]

It's a good job these people don't work in construction or mechanical engineering. They wouldn't survive and would be out of their jobs in a few jobs.

Yeah, cos builders estimates are always spot on aren't they.

 

[studio150]

Billions of pounds will be spent online now and up until Xmas, that's doesn't feel like a country that is feeling the pain.

A lot on credit cards, where people don't have the funds to pay off the statement in full when it arrives and are willing to ignore the pain.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The Office for Budget Responsibility admits there is a 50% chance that their forecasts could be wrong. Not even 52 to 48, now that is "responsible " predicting/scaremongering.

It's a good job these people don't work in construction or mechanical engineering. They wouldn't survive and would be out of their jobs in a few jobs.

It is baffling how so many of these organisations continue to churn out predictions considering their track record. Even more baffling why so many people seem to desperately want to believe them (apart from the need to justify their referendum vote). It's getting to the point where some people/organisations appear to be trying to talk us into recession.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

It is baffling how so many of these organisations continue to churn out predictions considering their track record. Even more baffling why so many people seem to desperately want to believe them (apart from the need to justify their referendum vote). It's getting to the point where some people/organisations appear to be trying to talk us into recession.

Yep, it's quite sad really. I have said before if anyone will drive us in to a proper recession it will be the constant negativity being churned out over and over again from remainers. Just because remainers can't get what they want, then everyone should suffer.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Even more baffling why so many people seem to desperately want to believe them (apart from the need to justify their referendum vote). It's getting to the point where some people/organisations appear to be trying to talk us into recession.

Which people desperately want to believe them?
Who actually wants a recession and a worse standard of living?
Who wants job insecurity?
Who wants a job market that's cooling?

I don't and I don't know of anyone else who does.

 

[nicko31]

It is frustrating to see so many of the guys who said yes, there will be some short term misery but we will come out the other side better for it, now denying even the short term misery.
I can accept that Britain may, in the long run, be better off as part of EFTA, rather than the EU, but when the same posters that advocate hard Brexit want to deny any long lasting difficulties for the economy, I wonder at how they became so deluded.
Leavers, bear in mind that all possibilities were on offer from leave campaigners, but you can't have all the best outcomes offered from any one Brexit deal.

Well all I can say is if there are any benefits it is going to take a long time to reep any rewards, if we had voted YES I'm pretty sure we'd be booming now. Instead we have a slow withdrawl of new business investment.

Right now, we have 16 million people with less than £100 in savings in the bank. If you can ride out the pain good for you, but many are less fortunate

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Which people desperately want to believe them?
Who actually wants a recession and a worse standard of living?
Who wants job insecurity?
Who wants a job market that's cooling?

I don't and I don't know of anyone else who does.

Well for a start the people on this thread who immediately jumped on these forecasts suggesting this either proved them right or Brexiteers wrong. You probably gave them a thumbs up.

Some do seem to give the impression they would rather see UKplc go tits up rather than see Brexit succeed.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Yep, it's quite sad really. I have said before if anyone will drive us in to a proper recession it will be the constant negativity being churned out over and over again from remainers. Just because remainers can't get what they want, then everyone should suffer.

Consumer and business confidence has remained remarkably resilient despite the best efforts of some to talk us down. Unfortunately I expect the negativity will continue or get worse until the desired result is achieved.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

The Office for Budget Responsibility admits there is a 50% chance that their forecasts could be wrong. Not even 52 to 48, now that is "responsible " predicting/scaremongering.

They are fulfilling their remit - ie to forecast given current government policy.

They are very clear that they do not predict future government policy changes, and when it changes so do the forecasts.

They work with the current facts and policy, and not with guesses (positive or negative ).

Which is all they can do.


In fact this means that when future government brexit details are revealed ( like tariff levels ) then there is every chance the forecast may improve. But not until the details are fact.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Consumer and business confidence has remained remarkably resilient despite the best efforts of some to talk us down. Unfortunately I expect the negativity will continue or get worse until the desired result is achieved.

"...will continue until..."

It really does look as though you're preparing your ground. When economic gravity starts to prevail you'll be all ready to blame remainers for 'talking us down' rather than Brexiters for voting for it.

Road surfaces collapsing, universities closing, car sales tanking, incomes falling... hopes fading... it's all the Remainers' fault. Nothing to do with us.