[Football] Bottom 6 remaining games

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Stephen Seagull

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2015
452
Barcelona
We'll be starting the "Teams that can't catch us" thread soon
 


drew

Drew
Oct 3, 2006
23,090
Burgess Hill
Being generous, Villa may get 7 more points and Bournemouth 10 points. So we would need 4 points

Being extremely generous! Villa have Wolves, Liverpool, Man Utd, Palace, Everton, Arsenal and West Ham? Which two do you think they'll win?

As for Bournemouth, they've got Newcastle, Man Utd, Spurs, Leicester, Man City, Southampton and Everton. Which 3 of those do you think they can win based on current form?

Personally think that neither Villa or Bournemouth will pick up 7 pts which effectively means we have enough in the bag. Bit like two years ago when we beat Man Utd to confirm our safety but in reality, we had enough after we had beaten Arsenal on the 4th March, we just didn't know it at the time.
 
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nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
13,878
Manchester
Being generous, Villa may get 7 more points and Bournemouth 10 points. So we would need 4 points

Being very generous to Bournemouth there. And even if it did happen, the chances of both Watford and West Ham also getting 10 points are minimal.
 








Official Old Man

Uckfield Seagull
Aug 27, 2011
8,606
Brighton
I must have had too much time on my hands. I've a full spreadsheet with games remaining.
Then I've got the table, points, max points, points other teams need to go above us (I've added one to each team to take our GD into account). Then there is a table of the games each team have to play each other which takes into account that ie Watford West Ham cant both get 3 points.
Then I went and had a beer. It looks pretty good.
 


Bold Seagull

strong and stable with me, or...
Mar 18, 2010
29,841
Hove
Even in our poor winless run from the start of this year we picked up 4 points from 7 games. No way playing with a bit of confidence and fight are we going the next 7 without a decent clutch of points.

I’m that way inclined but after these 2 opening rounds of return games I’ve already started to look at who is above us that can be caught rather than who is below.
 




Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,271
Surrey
Even in our poor winless run from the start of this year we picked up 4 points from 7 games. No way playing with a bit of confidence and fight are we going the next 7 without a decent clutch of points.

I’m that way inclined but after these 2 opening rounds of return games I’ve already started to look at who is above us that can be caught rather than who is below.
So have I. In fact I was going to start a thread asking how high we could feasibly finish. We are 15th, we might catch Southampton although 4 points is a huge total to make up at this stage of the season for bottom half teams. I don't think we can overhaul Newcastle as they are six points clear.

Meanwhile I'm loving the fact that you can bet your arse that on similar threads on the forums of clubs below us, I doubt our fixture list even features - certainly not on the Norwich one anyway. It would have to be a monumental collapse to see us dragged back in. Possible, but I don't see it and neither do the bookies as our relegation odds lengthen by the day - now 22/1.
 


Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,383
Uffern
Being extremely generous! Villa have Wolves, Liverpool, Man Utd, Palace, Everton, Arsenal and West Ham? Which two do you think they'll win?

Well, I'm not the one who posted it but I think they'll beat Palace and West Ham (and get a draw with Everton). I think Villa look more up for a fight than Bournemouth or Hammers do
 


sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
12,570
Hove
The Villa manager seems to reckon we can be caught, which is probably being lapped up by their big club fans brigade.

I really hope Wolves stuff them tomorrow, perhaps he should be more focused on that game than little old brighton.
 




Springal

Well-known member
Feb 12, 2005
24,013
GOSBTS
The Villa manager seems to reckon we can be caught, which is probably being lapped up by their big club fans brigade.

I really hope Wolves stuff them tomorrow, perhaps he should be more focused on that game than little old brighton.

Who cares? You'd expect a club in the relegation zone to be saying the same thing as motivation. It's in our hands so just get on with it get the points and we're good
 


dazzer6666

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Mar 27, 2013
52,797
Burgess Hill
The Villa manager seems to reckon we can be caught, which is probably being lapped up by their big club fans brigade.

I really hope Wolves stuff them tomorrow, perhaps he should be more focused on that game than little old brighton.

The more recent posts on their 'Relegation thread' don't even talk about us......................

https://www.villatalk.com/topic/19927-relegation-thread/page/62/

In 61 pages I'm sure it's been said, but this really is a contest to see who's the most useless / spineless out of us, West Ham, Watford and Bournemouth, and no-one's doing themselves any favours right now.

Remaining games...

Us: Wolves, Liverpool, Man U, Palace, Everton, Arsenal, West Ham

Bournemouth: Newcastle, Man U, Spurs, Leicester, Man City, Southampton, Everton

West Ham: Chelsea, Newcastle, Burnley, Norwich, Watford, Man U, Villa

Watford: Southampton, Chelsea, Norwich, Newcastle, West Ham, Man City, Arsenal

From that list I'd say Bournemouth are in deep trouble if they don't get something from Newcastle. West Ham and Watford run ins look easier but assuming Norwich don't give up completely, a lot of those teams still have everything to play for.

Ironically Steve Bruce could indirectly decide the whole thing. C'mon Brucey, we love you really.

Possibly.


...and sample posts after our game v Leicester....


Watched both Brighton games. They could easily have got 0 points from those games but they dug in and snatched 4. Very impressive. That’s just not in our locker I’m afraid.


**** off Brighton, you seagull loving words removed.


A team saved by lockdown it seems so Norwich , Us and a three horse race for the last spot ...


That puts even more pressure on tomorrow. Hope Smith has the bottle!


Good battling draw for Brighton there - they even might be slightly miffed not to have won.

Wish our squad showed the same resolve and determination.

That gap above the bottom 3 is starting to look comfortable for the Seagulls now.
 


FatSuperman

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2016
2,830
I must have had too much time on my hands. I've a full spreadsheet with games remaining.
Then I've got the table, points, max points, points other teams need to go above us (I've added one to each team to take our GD into account). Then there is a table of the games each team have to play each other which takes into account that ie Watford West Ham cant both get 3 points.
Then I went and had a beer. It looks pretty good.

Please share :) We love a spready
 




HAILSHAM SEAGULL

Well-known member
Nov 9, 2009
10,348
Villa may well turn over Champion hangover suffering Liverpool.


I reckon you had too much sun yesterday, not only are Villa shit, bar Grealish and Mcginn, they have John Terry as assistant manager.
Plus Liverpool want to beat City's 100 point tally.
You'd get very long odds on Villa to beat Liverpool.
 


bhafc99

Well-known member
Oct 14, 2003
7,135
Dubai
If we can beat Norwich, then it starts to become a very hard ask for 3 of the bottom 5 to catch us.

I'm actually more anxious about that game than Arsenal, Foxes & Man Utd. Those felt like free hits, this is our real must-win of Tournament Restart. Although that's been slightly reduced by our superb 4pts to date, it's still the game we really need to be getting 3pts from to put an end to any doubt. Which creates that nervous anticipation and fear...
 


nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
13,878
Manchester
If we can beat Norwich, then it starts to become a very hard ask for 3 of the bottom 5 to catch us.

I'm actually more anxious about that game than Arsenal, Foxes & Man Utd. Those felt like free hits, this is our real must-win of Tournament Restart. Although that's been slightly reduced by our superb 4pts to date, it's still the game we really need to be getting 3pts from to put an end to any doubt. Which creates that nervous anticipation and fear...

Norwich is not a must-win game.
 


monty uk

Well-known member
Sep 25, 2018
632
Personally think that neither Villa or Bournemouth will pick up 7 pts which effectively means we have enough in the bag. Bit like two years ago when we beat Man Utd to confirm our safety but in reality, we had enough after we had beaten Arsenal on the 4th March, we just didn't know it at the time.

I’m with Drew on this and think we may already be clear.

With 7 games to play Villa, B’muff and Hammers need to bag 7 points to get above us. This is without our getting any more points – this is Brighton so it’s possible. Let’s assume the worst.

To do this they can either:

• Draw 7/7 – not realistic so ignore
• Win 1, draw 4, lose 2 – Win points from 5 out of 7 games.
• Win 2, draw 1, lose 4 – Win points from 3 out of 7 games.

Watford need 6 which is marginally easier.

For us to go down, 3 of those 4 teams have to get that amount of points. A tall order.

Is that realistic? I don’t think so based on their recent form. Although Watford and WHam could do it.

And that’s before looking at any top table opponents and 6-point games.

I also think, like last year, we’ll grab some points along the way and get well clear.

Relegation odds of 22/1 don’t look that inviting to me, but what do I know?
 




Icy Gull

Back on the rollercoaster
Jul 5, 2003
72,015
Norwich is not a must-win game.

Of all our remaining games I would suggest it is. Win that and we’ll probably be there. I expect us to lose it though.
 


sparkie

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
12,570
Hove
Of all our remaining games I would suggest it is. Win that and we’ll probably be there. I expect us to lose it though.
It is nowhere close to being a must win game. Burnley could end up being must win on the last day, but let's not contemplate that just yet.

Anyway, a win over Man Utd and we should be ok.
 


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