Boro/Hull Games In Hand

[Brian Fantana]

I'm already feeling sick at the prospect of that final day trip to Boro. The thought of needing to go there and get something is not filling me with a great deal of joy!

 

[BensGrandad]

My prediction us 4 points above Middlesbro and Middlesbro 3 above Hull on May 7th so a draw will see us up and Boro in 3rd. I am realy hoping.

 

[Triggaaar]

I am confident we'll win 5 games from 8, to reach 86 points, but will need 1 more win from the other 3 games ( birmingham, burnley, middlesbrough )

Your confident that we'll beat Forest and Charlton away, and Derby, QPR and Fulham at home - all 5 of them. You'd get decent odds on that.

I'd take a draw in our next match ( v Burnley ) right now.

It's much more likely that we'll beat Burnley than win all the games you think we will. We need about 2 points a game, so settling for a point, especially at home, is just daft. Sure we might get a point and think 'oh well, it was against a good team', but we definitely shouldn't settle for a point, we have to try and win every game.

 

[Triggaaar]

My prediction us 4 points above Middlesbro and Middlesbro 3 above Hull on May 7th

Well that's blown our chances.

so a draw will see us up and Boro in 3rd.

We wouldn't even need a draw. We'd have to go for the win and hope Hull get promoted instead of 'boro.

 

[BensGrandad]

Well that's blown our chances.
We wouldn't even need a draw. We'd have to go for the win and hope Hull get promoted instead of 'boro.

Why a point would suit both off us as per Southampton v Spurs some years ago.

 

[Triggaaar]

Why a point would suit both off us as per Southampton v Spurs some years ago.

No, you said we're 4 points ahead of 'boro, so we wouldn't need a point. Southampton and Spurs both needed something out of the game. I guess you meant different numbers.

 

[BensGrandad]

Middlesbro couldnt catch us, and a point would make them 3rd so we would settle for a draw., They would be happy with that and avoid injuries or red cards.

I thought Southampton were already up and Spurs needed 1 point to stop us but I could be mistaken.

 

[severnside gull]

If you look at the championship predictor on fishy you can estimate the final table.

Firstly - assume the following criteria for the top 6 for all remaining games:
- They draw with each other,
- They win all remaining home games against sides below 6th,
- They draw away with sides in the top 12
- They beat sides away in the bottom 12

In that case we end up with Hull and Burnley top on 91, Middlesborough third on 89 and Brighton fourth on 87.

Clearly it won't be like that - not least because it's unthinkable that no-one in the top 6 will lose another game. However this gives some measure of the difficulty of the run-in and games in hand for each team. It suggests our form needs to be relatively better than two of the other sides (currently Middlesborough and Hull have been on quite poor form). We might need to get an extra couple of wins where we might have drawn. Ion this basis a win against Burnley would almost do it!

This sort of calculation also suggests that the Middlesborough's goal against Hull wasn't as bad for us as a Hull goal might have been.

Interesting analysis. Realistically we need to better Boro's results - probably needing to win one more game than them - and match Hull (assuming they win their games in hand). Even then Boro could pip us on goal difference - that 0-3 at the Amex coming back to haunt us big time?
Truth is we could be re-guessing every week between now and May as fortunes fluctuate.
What chance we win every game and make life easier?!?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Love to see burnley drop out and its just us two needing a draw to both seal promotion.
You remember that World Cup game Austria vs West Germany that both needed a draw to qualify and they played out a dour 0-0 totally fixed draw?
That'd be brilliant

It would be funny. I'd like to see some Gus-esque 50 pass moves back to the 'keeper from both sides

 

[TSB]

The main problem with that method is that it ignores the fact that the clubs near the bottom are fighting for their lives, while those in mid table are thinking of their summer holidays.

What, those really easy games that Hull have to come against the teams at the bottom, you mean?

 

[Triggaaar]

What, those really easy games that Hull have to come against the teams at the bottom, you mean?

Hull have got to play Huddersfield, Wolves, Reading, Leeds and Brentford, who don't have much to play for, before they play Bolton who will already be relegated. That's a nice run in anyone's book. Except yours.

 

[TSB]

Hull have got to play Huddersfield, Wolves, Reading, Leeds and Brentford, who don't have much to play for, before they play Bolton who will already be relegated. That's a nice run in anyone's book. Except yours.

Suspect Leeds and Burnley (respectively) thought so too, yesterday.
I'll grant you Reading and Brentford.
Leeds - who knows.

 

[the wanderbus]

Hull have got to play Huddersfield, Wolves, Reading, Leeds and Brentford, who don't have much to play for, before they play Bolton who will already be relegated. That's a nice run in anyone's book. Except yours.

That looks like a good run in, BUT, games against sides that can play free from the pressure of a promotion/relegation fight often prove the most difficult.

 

[darkwolf666]

And just to clarify. Both those games should be 3 pointers against mid-table clubs with nothing to play for. If either Hull or Boro fail to get a win from those matches, neither will be promoted.

Look forward to one or both of those dropping points then

 

[Triggaaar]

Suspect Leeds and Burnley (respectively) thought so too, yesterday.

Well Leeds are in my list of teams that Hull have to play who aren't doing well, and you've listed them losing 4-1 as evidence I'm wrong? As for Huddersfield, they were only on 42 points yesterday morning, far from safe. By the time they play Hull, there's a decent chance they won't have much to play for. Wolves getting a point in injury time is hardly evidence that teams with little to play for are easier to play against.

I'll grant you Reading and Brentford.

So you won't grant me Bolton, who are shit, and will already be down?

Leeds - who knows.

We know. They're shit, and will be away.

Which teams exactly do you think are the easiest to play against?

Note that's 'easiest', not 'easy', as we know there are no easy games. But pretending that all games are exactly as easy/hard as each other is just stupid. No manager would ever think that.

 

[Triggaaar]

That looks like a good run in, BUT, games against sides that can play free from the pressure of a promotion/relegation fight often prove the most difficult.

So which group of teams do you think it's easiest to beat?

 

[TSB]

Well Leeds are in my list of teams that Hull have to play who aren't doing well, and you've listed them losing 4-1 as evidence I'm wrong? As for Huddersfield, they were only on 42 points yesterday morning, far from safe. By the time they play Hull, there's a decent chance they won't have much to play for. Wolves getting a point in injury time is hardly evidence that teams with little to play for are easier to play against.

So you won't grant me Bolton, who are shit, and will already be down?
We know. They're shit, and will be away.

Which teams exactly do you think are the easiest to play against?

Note that's 'easiest', not 'easy', as we know there are no easy games. But pretending that all games are exactly as easy/hard as each other is just stupid. No manager would ever think that.

Lot to reply to there.
Leeds recently beat Cardiff 2-0 away. Clearly a mixed bag so who can say how they'll be playing.
Bolton have been shithouse but teams often improve once relegated as the pressure and expectation is off.

Don't think I can say that there's one team I would feel 100% confident about playing. This league throws up some ridiculous results.
And, whilst I agree that some games are easier than others, I don't think Hull's run-in (on paper) looks all that easy. Not for the amount of points they're going to have to take from it, anyway.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Look forward to one or both of those dropping points then

Haha - fingers crossed!

 

[Triggaaar]

Don't think I can say that there's one team I would feel 100% confident about playing.

Well obviously you can't be 100% confident about any game. The PL throws up some ridiculous results too sometimes, but the point is that some games are easier than others. Next you'll be saying that it's not better to be at home than away, because teams sometimes lose at home and win away. Of course they do, but on average, it's better to be at home.

And, whilst I agree that some games are easier than others

Good - so which ones do you think are the easiest, which do you think are the hardest? Come on, get off the fence, which ones?

 

[BensGrandad]

If he could answer that with certainty he would be at the bookies making a fortune forecasting results.