Bookies' odds on auto's vs play-offs

[Dr. Notthenineo'clocknews]

I am, as I have said not into gambling but met an old school chum on the train who is being an ex bookie who tried to explain the handicap bets system saying he had put £125 EW on us and will pick up about £8500 if we do get automatic but about £ 800 if we dont. How does this work as I understood him when he placed the bets in August we had a 15 handicap Burnley 7 and Boro 8 which I took it to mean that to win we had to be within 15 points of either giving them their handicap points, which we obviously will be, Am I reading this correctly?

The returns seem wrong for a handicap bet, usually 16/1 or 18/1 all teams so for £125 ew you're lookin at about £2700 for the team that "wins" it and around £600/£700 for the second or third placed team.

The handicap points need to be added to ALL teams, so we may well be clear of Burnley and Boro, but if Cardiff or Sheffield Weds for example had a lot bigger handicap start they'd be up there too

 

[Dr. Notthenineo'clocknews]

Bookmaking is not an exact science, set up the correct percentace (the factoring in of a hyperthetical profit margin) any pricing errors made will be highlighted with the first few minutes of opening the book so they would be adjusted accordingly. Rightly or wrongly I'd go this

BHA 7/4 Hull 5/2 Derby 3/1 SW 4/1

 

[Leekbrookgull]

Wednesday.

 

[darters74]

I doubt we will be shorter than 5/2. So tight to call but I'll go with us and Derby 11/4, Hull 3/1, Sheff Weds 7/2

 

[The Maharajah of Sydney]

Hull, Derby & Sheff Wed odds collectively equate to an 80.8% chance.
Bookmakers would normally price up a market such as this to a percentage of around 105%
This leaves a missing 24.2% to whoever is the unknown 4th play-off team which would make it about 3/1 (4.0)

Personally I too think we'd be around the 7/4 mark with the other 3 teams being priced a couple of clicks higher than the odds stated.

 

[SeagullinExile]

No, cos I'm by no means certain that 3rd placed teams are necessarily favourites to go on and win promotion... that's kinda what interests me to find out...

There could end up being a ten point gap between third and fourth come next Saturday at 2.15. So you would think that the third placed team in that scenario would probably be favourites? That's the way I see it anyway.

 

[Mtoto]

Which reminds me of this article. Can this really be right?!?

Ladbrokes told this paper they were “desperate” for Burnley to top the table as an Albion title will leave them facing their “second biggest liability” after Leicester City - if they were to win the Premier League.

William Hill said they had taken a £1,250 each way bet on Albion to win the division at 20/1 which could net the better almost £36,000.

The bookies said about 14 per cent of all bets on the market had been for Brighton with only Derby County and Middlesbrough attracting more of punters’ money.

Paddy Power said they would be paying out £150,000 if Albion were to win the Championship, £20,000 more than if the more-fancied pre-season frontrunners Middlesbrough win the title and more than both Burnley and Hull.

That's payout, though, not loss. Also, an outsider winning, as with Leicester in the PL, will have plenty of knock-on effects elsewhere during the season as a whole, especially on the week-to-week coupons, which are the main engine of football turnover. In a sense, they are hedging any bets on the outsider to top the league by cleaning up every Saturday when Leicester win or one of the big teams fail, which also needs to happen on a regular basis for a pre-season rank outsider like Leicester to somehow finish top.

 

[BensGrandad]

The returns seem wrong for a handicap bet, usually 16/1 or 18/1 all teams so for £125 ew you're lookin at about £2700 for the team that "wins" it and around £600/£700 for the second or third placed team.

The handicap points need to be added to ALL teams, so we may well be clear of Burnley and Boro, but if Cardiff or Sheffield Weds for example had a lot bigger handicap start they'd be up there too

Possibly you are right I dont know only repeating what he told me as I said I am not into how it works.

 

[NooBHA]

Why is this so important, there are still 2 games to play.

But let's assume we miss out and go into the play-offs. Presumably our odds would differ if we have a full squad to select from as opposed to Stockdale being sent off for violent conduct at Boro so misses all 3 games, combined with both Hemed and Baldock going down with hamstring injuries ruling them out of the next 3 games.

There seems little point in worrying about this until after the Boro game, when it will be of no interest anyway.

The odds are higher for Burnley, Middlesboro and Brighton to win the play offs because they are less likely to be in them than the other 3 who are definitely in them. Once the 4th play off team is actually known they will probably be the favorites to win them

 

[BensGrandad]

The odds are higher for Burnley, Middlesboro and Brighton to win the play offs because they are less likely to be in them than the other 3 who are definitely in them. Once the 4th play off team is actually known they will probably be the favorites to win them

I may have a punt on Boro to stop them but I think Derby will win it.

 

[NooBHA]

I may have a punt on Boro to stop them but I think Derby will win it.

To be honest the top 6 in the league are all decent sides and you would have a case for suggesting any of them could win it. That's why it seems so important not to have to rely on it

 

[BensGrandad]

To be honest the top 6 in the league are all decent sides and you would have a case for suggesting any of them could win it. That's why it seems so important not to have to rely on it

No argument with that so we must go and do it ourselves starting tomorrow forget all this is doesnt matter if we dont beat Derby. until it happens should that be the case.

 

[lizard]

Surely we're shorter odds than Boro. We have 2 games left and keep winning whereas Boro have only to play us at theirs and it appears they are already beginning to choke.
Understand why Burnley are favorites, unfortunately.

 

[Bozza]

Surely we're shorter odds than Boro. We have 2 games left and keep winning whereas Boro have only to play us at theirs and it appears they are already beginning to choke.
Understand why Burnley are favorites, unfortunately.

Absolutely not, because we still have to play Derby to try and get in front of Boro. If we beat Derby it means that a draw at The Riverside favours us and not them, and we may then be slight favourites.

 

[lizard]

Absolutely not, because we still have to play Derby to try and get in front of Boro. If we beat Derby it means that a draw at The Riverside favours us and not them, and we may then be slight favourites.

I just think everyone is overrating Boro. I like that fact that the majority of the country still seem to think we only have an outside chance. But we are currently the best side in this league due to some critical players hitting form at the right time. We will beat Boro, Derby will be a sterner test as they too have hit some form recently.

 

[nwgull]

I just think everyone is overrating Boro. I like that fact that the majority of the country still seem to think we only have an outside chance. But we are currently the best side in this league due to some critical players hitting form at the right time. We will beat Boro, Derby will be a sterner test as they too have hit some form recently.

I agree with you. Derby are in form and will be a really hard team to beat tomorrow. Boro are looking shaky and have drawn their last 3 and needed injury time winners against Reading and Bolton. They're beatable, which is why I was delighted that Brum stopped us from needing a win tomorrow.

 

[Dr. Notthenineo'clocknews]

Possibly you are right I dont know only repeating what he told me as I said I am not into how it works.

After 27 years working in almost every department for Britains biggest bookmaker anything's possible!

 

[Triggaaar]

They're beatable, which is why I was delighted that Brum stopped us from needing a win tomorrow.

Sorry to be picky, but we wouldn't have needed to win tomorrow if Middlesbrough had won. Them drawing means a win against Derby is now more important, as we'd go ahead of Middlesbrough.

 

[Ernest]

Handicap as it stands, we can't be overtaken with 2 matches left

Brighton - 103
Burnley - 95
Middlesbrough - 90
Birmingham - 87
Shelf Wed - 87
Preston - 85
Cardiff - 84
Hull - 84
Rotherham - 79
Derby - 77
Huddersfield - 77
Ipswich - 77
Leeds - 77
Blackburn - 72
Reading - 70
Brentford - 69
QPR - 67
Forest - 67
Bristol City - 66
Charlton - 65
MK Dons - 65
Wolves - 65
Fulham - 62
Bolton - 55

 

[nwgull]

Sorry to be picky, but we wouldn't have needed to win tomorrow if Middlesbrough had won. Them drawing means a win against Derby is now more important, as we'd go ahead of Middlesbrough.

You're right; we'd have needed a draw. I still think that the fact that we can afford to lose eases the pressure significantly.