[Finance] Autumn Buget 2021

[MJsGhost]

Good man



To be totally honest no, I have been in my own little bubble, I have luckily not needed the police, probation services for quite some time, or been to court for that matter personally. My brother is a policeman, and he says it was it is, the politicians have all done them over on budgets and targets for years, no matter which council or government is in charge and as he sees it day in day out, so I will take his word for it, not to say this lot in charge are better but are they really any worse.

Anyway, I hate politics, so I will leave it right there, have a good evening young Mr Thunderbolt

Pssssst, it's Mrs Thunderbolt I believe

 

[Greg Bobkin]

I disagree. I suspect that most MPs are in it to make a difference. The venal ones have to be very careful or they come a cropper eventually. I think it is worse in science than in politcs, where people can cheat and get away with it as long as they don't step on anyone's toes.

I also think it is dangerous to start thinking that all politicians are the same. Yes our system is adversarial, but it seems less so today than when I first recall hearing PMQs on the radio. It was relenless barracking during the Thatcher era, with lots of sneering and lots of anger. The trajectory is towards better behaviour. It still isn't great, but we live in hope. Well, I do.

The art of the possible.....with the fuel being the ability to persuade. I don't see any frothing from Starmer, and many people dislike him for that, which suggests to me that you can't please everyone.

Clearly they want to make a difference, yes, but only when it suits them (in the majority). Regardless of the subject, if a decision doesn't suit them or is a three-line whip from the powers above them, they'll vote that way, regardless of what their constituents think. Maybe on a local level some things are different, but when it comes to big decisions made within the chamber? They and their egos come first.

And no, I'm not saying 'all politicians are the same'. Clearly they aren't. But all of them have agendas, ulterior motives or get caught up in the whole playground antics that play out in the HoP.

I'm not saying there's frothing from the politicians, more their supporters – online, in real life, etc. It's pointless trying to get into a political argument with someone from the other 'side' because you're never going to change the other person's opinion. A bit like the tribalism that goes on between rival football teams. The only thing that ever goes anywhere near bringing them closer together is some kind of tragedy – which is a pretty sad state of affairs. And even then you get some goons trying to get the upper hand with some bizarre form of whataboutery. It's so cocking tedious!

Anyway, the budget? Who knows. But it did make me laugh that one of the headlines on the BBC home page underneath the budget-related links was: 'Price rises could hit highest rate in 30 years'. Which is something to look forward to

 

[Cheshire Cat]

I disagree. I suspect that most MPs are in it to make a difference. The venal ones have to be very careful or they come a cropper eventually. I think it is worse in science than in politcs, where people can cheat and get away with it as long as they don't step on anyone's toes.

I also think it is dangerous to start thinking that all politicians are the same. Yes our system is adversarial, but it seems less so today than when I first recall hearing PMQs on the radio. It was relenless barracking during the Thatcher era, with lots of sneering and lots of anger. The trajectory is towards better behaviour. It still isn't great, but we live in hope. Well, I do.

The art of the possible.....with the fuel being the ability to persuade. I don't see any frothing from Starmer, and many people dislike him for that, which suggests to me that you can't please everyone.

Mostly this.

 

[Randy McNob]

If you're right, and HMG are now surfing on hubris, and bad things start to affect enough people, then Starmer has a chance next time. Unlike one or two I know I am not going to wish for disaster just to see the Back of Boris, though. I hope the Sunak plan works. Too many people have been struggling.

Whatever one's view about Boris, nothing can be changed till the next general election. I am not in favour of coups, and marches and protests (accompanied by the many red and black Socialist Worker banners) are not going to sway the minds of those who feel that things are as good as they can be after a pandemic and during the early disruptive years after Brexit.

We are going to have to lump it for a bit, and hope that Starmer and co can come up with some tunes that attract enough of us to whistle along to. A significant proportion of the electorate has long since decided that it doesn't mind that Boris is a bit of a lying cad. The man and his doings is no longer a viable target for labour attack. Think about that!

Starmer is not the answer for Labour, I hope they find a new leader who can win back the red wall core voters, perhaps Lisa Nandy

 

[Guinness Boy]

Fiat money doesnt need to be found, you just create it. It is the easy part. The consequences such as inflation is the difficult part.

Thanks for the kindergarten Economics lesson but it’s actually a reference to a British political saying.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Starmer is not the answer for Labour, I hope they find a new leader who can win back the red wall core voters, perhaps Lisa Nandy

You are Dominic Cummings and I claim my £5

https://www.heraldscotland.com/poli...mmings-tells-labour-ditch-starmer-lisa-nandy/

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Good man



To be totally honest no, I have been in my own little bubble, I have luckily not needed the police, probation services for quite some time, or been to court for that matter personally. My brother is a policeman, and he says it was it is, the politicians have all done them over on budgets and targets for years, no matter which council or government is in charge and as he sees it day in day out, so I will take his word for it, not to say this lot in charge are better but are they really any worse.

Anyway, I hate politics, so I will leave it right there, have a good evening young Mr Thunderbolt

Not just politics that has passed you bye it seems

 

[GrizzlingGammon]

Whatever happened to cigarettes?
In the golden oldie days the highlight of a budget was how much he was going to increase beer, spirits and cigarettes
Now he's taken 3p a pint off beer, which we wont notice and probably means a meagre £30 to a small pub.

Some pub chains are suggesting that they could increase the price of a pint by 25-35p, to cover minimum wage increase. In effect you could be paying 22-32p more for a pint in some establishments.

 

[Pavilionaire]

If you're right, and HMG are now surfing on hubris, and bad things start to affect enough people, then Starmer has a chance next time. Unlike one or two I know I am not going to wish for disaster just to see the Back of Boris, though. I hope the Sunak plan works. Too many people have been struggling.

Whatever one's view about Boris, nothing can be changed till the next general election. I am not in favour of coups, and marches and protests (accompanied by the many red and black Socialist Worker banners) are not going to sway the minds of those who feel that things are as good as they can be after a pandemic and during the early disruptive years after Brexit.

We are going to have to lump it for a bit, and hope that Starmer and co can come up with some tunes that attract enough of us to whistle along to. A significant proportion of the electorate has long since decided that it doesn't mind that Boris is a bit of a lying cad. The man and his doings is no longer a viable target for labour attack. Think about that!

20 or 30 years ago I wouldn't have thought it possible that a leader could con voters into believing £350 million a week would go into the NHS by stopping our contribution to the EU, and then 5 years later that same leader fulfil that pledge by introducing a brand new tax - the 1.25% Health & Social Care Levy, rendering the bus slogan one of the greatest electoral lies in British political history.

Of course Rishi keeps quiet about the fact the divorce bill is c. £25 billion, of which £18 billion is to be paid in the next 3 years.

 

[Psychobilly freakout]

Not just politics that has passed you bye it seems

Ok, sorry Mrs Thunderbolt

 

[vegster]

I'm surprised Rishi forgot to mention this, he was quoting quite freely from the OBR during his budget speech, perhaps a couple of pages got stuck together and he missed it ?

Brexit worse for the UK economy than Covid pandemic, OBR says

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/28/brexit-worse-for-the-uk-economy-than-covid-pandemic-obr-says

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I'm surprised Rishi forgot to mention this, he was quoting quite freely from the OBR during his budget speech, perhaps a couple of pages got stuck together and he missed it ?

Brexit worse for the UK economy than Covid pandemic, OBR says

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/28/brexit-worse-for-the-uk-economy-than-covid-pandemic-obr-says

It’s not just the ‘lefty’ Guardian reporting it, but BBCNews as well. The tide is turning.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59070020

 

[vegster]

It’s not just the ‘lefty’ Guardian reporting it, but BBCNews as well. The tide is turning.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59070020

I heard Tony Livsey on 5live actually grilling a Tory MP as regards the budget and quite forcefully reminding him of the impact of Brexit on the country. Would be lovely if the BBC regularly and genuinely seriously questioned the lies from Tory Ministers and MP'S.

 

[vegster]

Double post

 

[Pevenseagull]

Some pub chains are suggesting that they could increase the price of a pint by 25-35p, to cover minimum wage increase. In effect you could be paying 22-32p more for a pint in some establishments.

Wouldn't that mean a member of bar staff selling less than 2 pints per hour?

 

[keaton]

The Guardian: Sunak and Johnson’s beer ‘draught relief’ photocall goes flat.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...nsons-beer-draught-relief-photocall-goes-flat

 

[Springal]

A local craft beer shops take on it

The Guardian: Sunak and Johnson’s beer ‘draught relief’ photocall goes flat.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...nsons-beer-draught-relief-photocall-goes-flat

I have thought long and hard about writing this, as we don’t usually bring politics into our little corner of the world… but I just thought I’d write a note regarding today’s budget given all the headlines that are currently flying about.
If you don’t want to read it all, here’s the summary. This will not positively impact the small and independent pub or brewer that we cherish so much, nor will it result in a cheaper pint for you. Sorry.
Still with me? Ok… buckle up, here we go.
Why’s that, I hear you cry, you’re wrong!? He’s cut the amount of duty paid by the brewer significantly!
Well, yes, I can be wrong (and indeed often so!) but the key bit of this duty cut is the sentence “served from containers of 40 litres or more”.
But hang on, real ale is saved - it comes in both 18G and 9G barrels… and last time you checked, 9G is 40.91 litres! We’re saved! Thank the lord Rishi…

Well yes, that may be the case, but there’s still a lot of real ale put into pins, or 4.5G barrels, so what does a small brewer pay if they need to put some in 18G casks, 9G casks and some pins? Why should they not get duty relief on the whole brew length, rather than everything except the smaller pins? Will you be willing to pay more for a pint of beer just because it comes in a smaller barrel that allows a venue to keep it in better condition? But, let’s get the calculator out, and assume the brewer can claim the new relief. This works out at about 3p a pint less in beer duty, which will mean a 9G cask could be a whopping £2.16 cheaper before VAT at a wholesale level. A small brewery, typical of those that we will typically buy from, makes a couple of thousand pints at a time, & maybe, on that sort of volume, be able to claim around £100 a time back. Assume they brew 3 times a week every week, that half goes into casks that can hold more than 40l, & this *could* result in a duty saving of £7-8k per year from 500,000 pints. All good for the brewer, maybe they’ll take a wage from the business next year… obviously those that are bigger and more regional will have longer brew lengths and therefore, could see bigger savings. But the point stands, it’s not massive amounts of money we’re seeing here.

Let’s move onto keg beer. Almost 100% of the craft and small/independent breweries that we buy from package the vast majority of their keg beers into 30 litre steel or plastic kegs, or 20 litre keykegs - yep, that’s right, these kegs are under the 40l threshold and are therefore disqualified from the duty benefit. These smaller, independent, family owned, quality-focused breweries WILL NOT currently benefit from this duty cut.
Almost all of Big Beer, these large & multinational breweries we know so well, use containers bigger than 40l, the most popular ones being 50l kegs, for the vast majority of their beers. Carling, Fosters, Heineken, Guinness, Carlsberg, John Smiths… the list is both long and depressing. All of these breweries, the ones turning over hundreds of millions of pounds, WILL benefit from this duty cut.

What that means, is that without completely overhauling pretty much all of these craft/small/independent brewery’s business plans, their operating systems *and* see them having to make significant investments in equipment, vessels and re-pointing the market (craft pubs and bars like ours) to the fact that a 40l or bigger container can still be turned over quickly enough to provide a constantly moving offer, no small, independent brewery will feel any benefit at all. Zero. However, for Big Beer - your Carlsberg, Heineken, Molson Coors, AB-Inbev et al... where the majority of their draught beers are packaged in +40l vessels… well, they are laughing.
If you take Molson Coors who make Carling for example. According to their own figures, they brew somewhere in the region of 3 million pints of beer a day, 1.8 million pints of which fall under the Carling brand. I’ll say that again. They brew, at Burton on Trent, 3 MILLION PINTS OF BEER A DAY!

If I’m generous, and suggest 50% of their Carling output is kegged in 40l+ vessels, today’s duty cut will have a cash saving to them of 3p per pint. Calculators out again folks, 3p x 0.9m = £27,000 saving on duty PER DAY. If they brew Carling 7 days a week, the benefit to Molson Coors courtesy of you & I as taxpayers, is over £9.8 MILLION PER YEAR.

Leaving that little number hanging there for a moment, do you honestly think you’ll see that 3p reduction on your pint? A 50l keg (which holds 88 pints) may see a £2.64 decrease in wholesale cost due to lower duty charges (assuming the brewery passes them on!), but what with the rapidly increasing cost of energy & transportation costs, national living wage increases etc etc, *and* given the ties and pricing schemes set by PubCo’s for landlords for these Big Beer brands, I’d be very surprised if it is translated into lower pump prices. Anyone seriously see any pub (Wetherspoons aside, as who knows what Tim Martin will do next!) moving the price of a pint of Carling from £4.00 down to £3.97....
You may not be paying for it on the pint (again, making the assumption that Big Beer will pass that saving on to the Pub Co's and then in turn the big Pub Co's will pass it on to the consumer) BUT we will all pay for it in the lack of funding for social support schemes, healthcare, education, transport etc etc. Remember, that £9.8m/year is only from 1 beer brand, from 1 multinational brewery. Imagine how much they will all save from the Treasury if they brew similar volumes to Carling……

This one single aspect of the budget today is wrong on every level - whilst it may sound good for “the man on the street” it's really an impediment to sustainability & growth of small & independent breweries. Make no bones about it, this is a cleverly designed tax break for Big Beer, meaning they can then cut costs and further price out the smaller breweries. Yet the headlines will trick people into thinking the politicians in charge have done a good thing. The reality is that they have no interest in either small business, or you the average drinker.

Well done Chancellor... you have shaved 3p a pint off (mostly) shit macro beer duty. Happy days for Big Beer and another kick for small independents.
PS, this photo opportunity was taken after the budget today at FourPure’s brewery, (a former craft brewer that can brew 14m pints/year), who was bought by Lion Little World, (who also own Magic Rock Brewing Co, who can brew 2.7m pints/year), who are themselves a company who are owned by Kirin Holdings Company Ltd, who have been part-funding Myanmar’s military, who have been accused of many years worth of human rights atrocities. They’re also holding 30 litre kegs, (which as we’ve worked out above), aren’t eligible for beer duty relief… just in case you didn’t understand how spectacularly crap these people are.

 

[beorhthelm]

A local craft beer shops take on it

surprised they managed to get into so much detail without mentioning the small brewer relief, where they pay about half the larger brewers do.

 

[Machiavelli]

I posted another link on the Brexit thread earlier prefaced by 'Hmmm, who'd have thunk it?'

Well, who'd have thunk it?:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...-predicts-real-pain-for-low-income-households

 

[Raleigh Chopper]

I heard Tony Livsey on 5live actually grilling a Tory MP as regards the budget and quite forcefully reminding him of the impact of Brexit on the country. Would be lovely if the BBC regularly and genuinely seriously questioned the lies from Tory Ministers and MP'S.

BBC breakfast time and other programmes are like a Conservative party broadcast, hardly any grilling, probably due to the fact that they are threatening to end license fees, they have them in their pocket, no Andrew Neill or Paxman whilst Andrew Marr is a hopeless wet blanket.
The only programme left where they may get a grilling with facts is Newsnight, so most evenings if they don't like the subject ' the government was invited to come in to the studio, but they refused"
Regarding the Budget it had Johnsons grubby mits all over it, spend, spend, spend to make him look good, but very little spending where it is really needed right now to help people.
Lapdog Sunak would never have given that budget considering the financial state of the country.
Johnson has his hopeless cabinet right where he wants them.
Considering the debt and borrowing and the high taxes, if Labour had produced that budget it would have been vilified by the press, the politicians and the public but nobody seems to care.
Reeves had it bang on they are like a pickpocketing gang, Johnson distracts with his jokes and general stupidity knowing that the public mugs are going to fall for it whilst Sunak nicks your wallet.
And still blinkered idiots like the OP fall for it time and time again.
Interesting stuff coming out about Brexit at last, expect Johnson to disappear probably into a fridge and the fools that voted for it to put their fingers in their ears.