[Albion] Apparently 8th place "still gets Europe", if...

[tstanbur]

Why do we need Newcastle to get a point - they're above Chelsea on GD? Surely if both lose, Newcastle would need to get absolutely pumped by Everton at St James to finish below?

Exactly. Even in the very unlikely scenario that happens and Chelsea finish 6th and Newcastle 7th then it doesn't make a difference to what we need.

 

[Machiavelli]

I’ve just calc’d the fractional odds of the scenarios required, which is as follows:

BHA fail to get a point at spuds (0.24 probability) AND Brentford win at Vulvas (0.38 probability) - combined probability is 0.09 giving 1.09 fractional odds.

Forest to beat Chelsea and Chelsea beat RB is a 3.2 x 1.8 acca paying 5.76.

Villa failing to get a point at Man U is a 0.22 probability giving 1.22 odds.

Newcastle failing to get at point at home to Everton is a 0.095 probability giving 1.095 odds.

The above all combines to give an acca paying £8.40 per £1 stake. It’s not impossible, but it’s still an outside bet dominated by Forest and Chelsea results.

Take out Newcastle (see above posts), that becomes £7.66 if my maths is correct.
It doesn't look too bad for a punt but, as you say, the two Chelsea results are most likely to scupper us -- as the odds make clear.

 

[oldboyroy]

Our resilient home form has given us hope at the end of the day. Those unlikely comebacks v Spurs, Man City and injury time winners v Man United, Fulham, and West Ham changed our season.

Could be looked at that way I agree.

 

[Berty23]

I thought if Newcastle finish 7th and Chelsea 6th then we get the conference league whether Chelsea win conf league or not. Is that wrong?

 

[oldboyroy]

I thought if Newcastle finish 7th and Chelsea 6th then we get the conference league whether Chelsea win conf league or not. Is that wrong?

Nope. Chelsea still have to win conference league

 

[Chicken Run]

Apparently not as the tannoy was telling people to get off ...... !

ohh

 

[Redinpeace]

Apparently not as the tannoy was telling people to get off ...... !

 

[Brian Munich]

Take out Newcastle (see above posts), that becomes £7.66 if my maths is correct.
It doesn't look too bad for a punt but, as you say, the two Chelsea results are most likely to scupper us -- as the odds make clear.

I think it’s fairer estimate if you take out Newcastle like you have. The probability for them was just losing, whereas even if Chelsea only lose by 1 Newcastle would have to lose by 4 or more, for which the probability must be vanishingly low.

 

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

I hope we can do what’s needed at City Ground

Yes please, thank you very much.

 

[One Teddy Maybank]

Can’t see anything but a positive result for BHA on Sunday, Spurs will be on it now and hanging at the weekend.

I hope we can do what’s needed at City Ground

So do I.
You have excellent, vociferous, loud, support and Chelsea can be flakey…

I’m more worried we’ll do something silly…. Come on Wolves!

 

[Falmer Flutter ©]

Wait, Spurs are having their parade tomorrow? They really are going to be on the sauce for 72 hours.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

But they have already qualified for Europa minimum haven't they?

No, if Chelsea finish 7th and lose the Conference League final they’d go into next seasons Conference again.

 

[Dave the OAP]

Without wading through this straw clutching, will we actually know on Sunday if we have made it or will we have to wait till the conference game with the entitled shits up the road ?

 

[Was not Was]

Without wading through this straw clutching, will we actually know on Sunday if we have made it or will we have to wait till the conference game with the entitled shits up the road ?

we'll know on Sunday whether or not Chelsea winning the conference three days later would get us a Conference place next season

 

[Sussax]

Without wading through this straw clutching, will we actually know on Sunday if we have made it or will we have to wait till the conference game with the entitled shits up the road ?

The most we can find out Sunday is if we CAN'T secure Europe.

Even if all results go our way, we'll then have to wait until 28th May (Chelsea Cup Final)

 

[tstanbur]

I think it’s fairer estimate if you take out Newcastle like you have. The probability for them was just losing, whereas even if Chelsea only lose by 1 Newcastle would have to lose by 4 or more, for which the probability must be vanishingly low.

have you even read any of the other multiple replies about Newcastle ? they are irrelevant! they can win, draw or lose by 600 goals. It really doesn't matter to us.

 

[The Colonel]

We will get a result, Villa will get a result, and Chelsea will win the Conference League.

It all rests on Forest. That's the big one.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

No, if Chelsea finish 7th and lose the Conference League final they’d go into next seasons Conference again.

which would be kind of amusing in its own right.

I still find it hard to see them losing at Forest

 

[kevo]

Is there public wi-fi at Spurz? I'm wondering how we'll keep in touch with the scores. Might have to bring an old mobile transistor radio like the old days, lol.

 

[Silverhatch]

Levy & Barber have already done the carve up. A draw suits Brighton & Spurs because Villa will hump United. It’s down to Forest. Hope they better their 7-0 against us. Then have to swallow my own sick supporting the ****s v Betis.