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[Cricket] England v India, Fourth Test match, The Oval, 02-06 September
- Thread starter hans kraay fan club
- Start date
pasty
A different kind of pasty
Gutted I'm not going to be able to watch tomorrow.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
England would have to have a good morning session to make and England win possible. I fear the scoring rate might be beyond us.
Pierre the Painter
New member
- May 20, 2020
- 311
I find the odds for this are quite incredible, I've had quite a significant bet on India to win. To put into context this would be ENglands highest ever 4th innings run chase and one of the top 10 of anyone ever, all of this with a very talented Indian bowling line up and an incredibly fragile batting order. The chances of an England win are very unlikely, much more unlikely than India taking 10 wickets and yet India are only very marginal favourite. Once one wicket goes it is very possible/probabe others will follow and as pressure builds it will likely create a domino effect. Laying England at a little over 5/2 on the exchanges looks very good value as does backing India at slightly over 2/1.
Been discussing exactly this with chums on WA this morning.
I'd want at least 4/1 on England - if they bat through the first session without losing a wicket, that might look good value. However they probably won't and hopes on avoiding a loss would once again rest on Root. India are massively overpriced at 3.3 on the exchanges I think.
I'm not a gambler, but don't the odds just reflect the weight of betting? In which case, this is simply a case of England fans, in England, being optimistic and believing the hype in the media and having a punt isn't it?
I'd say the odds at a liquid exchange reflect the outcome probability as well as anything. Betfair has England at 3.7 (27/10), India 3.3 (23/10) and a draw at 2.32 (5/4 ish).
Nobby Cybergoat
Well-known member
- Jul 19, 2021
- 7,084
India terrific value.
Can't bet against my own team so will have to pass up that option.
England most likely will approach in an overcautious manner
Can't bet against my own team so will have to pass up that option.
England most likely will approach in an overcautious manner
India only really need to get the wicket of Root today, and before tea. If they do there is no way England can win this IMHO. They lack the mercurial talents of Stokes and Buttler who could suddenly chase down 80 in quick time with the tail, Bairstow can but Moeen seems too flakey to me for that. If the pitch is as dead as they all think then a draw is definitely not out of the question though.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
I'd put the draw as the favourite. This isn't playing like a day 5 wicket, batting is still comfortable, but I feel 291 runs in a day might be too much, especially as there are no fielding restrictions.
It's behaving exactly as it normally does at the Oval on the 5th day - it needs a quality spin bowler into the rough, and India left out Ashwin.
IMO, that is why England started the day at 3.7 (27/10) rather than 5/1 or even 6/1.
Uh_huh_him
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2011
- 10,741
Didn't see this one going to Day 5 after the first innings.
This is interestingly poised.
Run rate required is about 3.3 for the 86 ish overs left.
If (IF!) England can chug along at 2.75 per over for 50 overs (quite conservative to preserve wickets), then up it to 3.3. for 26 overs, it would leave a RRR of 6 for the last 10 overs. This is doable as long as there are relatively decent (and set) batters around later on. If they go too hard too early, they will give the Indians a boost and potentialy lose clusters of wickets.
If they go too slowly, their ambition to win might recede and a draw becomes even more likely. No sign of demons in the pitch yet.
My personal opinion is that India will win - I wouldn't bet against flurries of wickets when one goes and there will be a new ball to contend with this afternoon too.
Should be a terrific watch today whichever way it goes.
Run rate required is about 3.3 for the 86 ish overs left.
If (IF!) England can chug along at 2.75 per over for 50 overs (quite conservative to preserve wickets), then up it to 3.3. for 26 overs, it would leave a RRR of 6 for the last 10 overs. This is doable as long as there are relatively decent (and set) batters around later on. If they go too hard too early, they will give the Indians a boost and potentialy lose clusters of wickets.
If they go too slowly, their ambition to win might recede and a draw becomes even more likely. No sign of demons in the pitch yet.
My personal opinion is that India will win - I wouldn't bet against flurries of wickets when one goes and there will be a new ball to contend with this afternoon too.
Should be a terrific watch today whichever way it goes.
Uh_huh_him
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2011
- 10,741
My dosh would be firmly on laying England.
But it's great to have all 3 results as realistic options.
It's behaving exactly as it normally does at the Oval on the 5th day - it needs a quality spin bowler into the rough, and India left out Ashwin.
Exactly. If Ashwin were playing this would be over before tea
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
All 4 ...
Well quite. As I say, that's why England were around 5/2 to win at start of play rather than 5 or 6/1.
As things stand, if I was India captain, I'd put on a part time spinner at one end right now for 4 or 5 overs. It is too early in the day for England to go after him as some sort of weakness in the attack, but it would give the Indians the chance to see if there is anything in the pitch for the spinner a bit later on.
England 100-0 (40.3 overs) 
Burns 50* (124 balls, 5 fours)
and as I am typing... he's out
The Dangerous Thakur has a wicket.
Burns 50* (124 balls, 5 fours)
and as I am typing... he's out
The Dangerous Thakur has a wicket.