[Albion] The Alternative Giraffe Tracker

[Uh_huh_him]

It ain't perfect, but it's the best way I've seen of tracking how well we are really doing.
Giraffe's comments at the beginning of the season predicted a great deal of dissatisfaction, from the usual suspects, in December when we were predicted to have just 15pts..
Well what do you know!

#TrustTheTracker

 

[Guinness Boy]

Did it occur to you that the reason I said it would be interesting to bounce at the end of the season was because I had every intention of bouncing it - at the end of the season (which it isn't).

Safety pretty much assured so it turns out no "alternative tracker" was needed but it's not quite done yet. Anything less than 42 points sees us standing still or going backwards. Where are the 5 points coming from Swanny? Still need three more for 40 as well.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Did it occur to you that the reason I said it would be interesting to bounce at the end of the season was because I had every intention of bouncing it - at the end of the season (which it isn't).

Safety pretty much assured so it turns out no "alternative tracker" was needed but it's not quite done yet. Anything less than 42 points sees us standing still or going backwards. Where are the 5 points coming from Swanny? Still need three more for 40 as well.

Assume that is tongue in cheek.....

Wolves and West Ham look to be ideal opponents for us and are our traditional bunnies.
Then there's Arsenal who we have taken 10pts from in the Premier league.

Not saying it will be easy , but a win and 2 draws from those games is hardly, beyond the wit of man.

 

[Swansman]

Did it occur to you that the reason I said it would be interesting to bounce at the end of the season was because I had every intention of bouncing it - at the end of the season (which it isn't).

Safety pretty much assured so it turns out no "alternative tracker" was needed but it's not quite done yet. Anything less than 42 points sees us standing still or going backwards. Where are the 5 points coming from Swanny? Still need three more for 40 as well.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Assume that is tongue in cheek.....

Wolves and West Ham look to be ideal opponents for us and are our traditional bunnies.
Then there's Arsenal who we have taken 10pts from in the Premier league.

Not saying it will be easy , but a win and 2 draws from those games is hardly, beyond the wit of man.

Well yeah - to a point. But on the actual tracker we'll only be down for three points from West Ham. All the other games are pointless according to the "beat the 10 worst teams from last season at home and draw with them away". That leaves us on 40 points, which is exactly spot on to the "Giraffe target" but is also one point fewer than last season.

At the turn of the year that looked like it would be hard work and I really didn't think we'd get there. I'm delighted to have been proven wrong on that front and not afraid to admit it. But our results have been anything but predictable according to the "quality" of our opponents and the fact that 50% of our wins have come against just two teams certainly backs up your thought that there are "types" of team we suit,

37 should be plenty to stay up now but as for beating last season - I couldn't tell you if we will or won't any more but the actual main tracker says we will not.

Which brings us back to the point of the thread. [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] has done a great job with the tracker over the PL years and it's proved to be a good indicator of survival, but we've never been further away from the premise of beating the bad teams at homes - we've almost done it in the opposite way.

 

[andy1980]

7 wins 6 draws sounds pretty likely. Or 6 wins 6 draws, which wouldnt result in 40 points but probably the number of points needed in something around 9/10 PL seasons.

I'm impressed. we are currently on 6 wins and 6 draws with 4 too play and a decent chance of getting that win number 7. I doff my hat to you.

 

[ConfusedGloryHunter]

I feel as supporters of a football club on a chat forum dedicated to that football club it is right and proper that people air their opinions on players, managers, opposition, rival fans, bottle tops and everything else. Anger at opposing views is silly yet understandable when the first team is not winning enough games. But to challenge the Giraffe Tracker is heresy. Heresy! So suffer all who doubt its efficacy.

 

[Guinness Boy]

View attachment 136299

Bore off stalker

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Well yeah - to a point. But on the actual tracker we'll only be down for three points from West Ham. All the other games are pointless according to the "beat the 10 worst teams from last season at home and draw with them away". That leaves us on 40 points, which is exactly spot on to the "Giraffe target" but is also one point fewer than last season.

At the turn of the year that looked like it would be hard work and I really didn't think we'd get there. I'm delighted to have been proven wrong on that front and not afraid to admit it. But our results have been anything but predictable according to the "quality" of our opponents and the fact that 50% of our wins have come against just two teams certainly backs up your thought that there are "types" of team we suit,

37 should be plenty to stay up now but as for beating last season - I couldn't tell you if we will or won't any more but the actual main tracker says we will not.

Which brings us back to the point of the thread. [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] has done a great job with the tracker over the PL years and it's proved to be a good indicator of survival, but we've never been further away from the premise of beating the bad teams at homes - we've almost done it in the opposite way.

Agreed, but that is not uncommon this season.
I heard some comment that Everton have won twice as many away from home.
Plenty of other clubs have a better away record than home.


As I mentioned above, the tracker predicted a much better return in the second half of the season than first and so it's proved.
The negative arguments at the end of the year, failed to factor this in.
In fairness to yourself, you tried to, by starting this thread.

 

[Rugrat]

Anything less than 42 points sees us standing still or going backwards.

Regardless of the points, I'd be horrified if anyone agreed we have stood still or gone backwards. IMO we have made fantastic progress on the pitch. We may not have had the rub of the green and we know we have squandered numerous chances but overall our performances have improved immensely, no question.

Ordinarily that would result in a higher points haul and hopefully it will next season

 

[Bozza]

Which brings us back to the point of the thread. [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] has done a great job with the tracker over the PL years and it's proved to be a good indicator of survival, but we've never been further away from the premise of beating the bad teams at homes - we've almost done it in the opposite way.

I don't know if we've ever been further away or not, but so far this season, based on tracker "expected results"...

Expected to lose: 15 Lost: 9 Drawn: 4 Won: 2
Expected to draw: 10 Lost: 2 Drawn: 4 Won: 4
Expected to win: 9: Lost: 2 Drawn: 5: Won: 2

I guess you could pull several conclusions from this, but the one I take is that we've been very good at not losing games where the tracker expected us to get something.

 

[Swansman]

I'm impressed. we are currently on 6 wins and 6 draws with 4 too play and a decent chance of getting that win number 7. I doff my hat to you.

Yes, turned out to be pretty spot on, much to the pleasure of all of us I imagine.

Bore off stalker

Regardless of the points, I'd be horrified if anyone agreed we have stood still or gone backwards. IMO we have made fantastic progress on the pitch. We may not have had the rub of the green and we know we have squandered numerous chances but overall our performances have improved immensely, no question.

Ordinarily that would result in a higher points haul and hopefully it will next season

Its funny, someone suggested that last week or so. Apparently there is only one way of improving - getting more points. New stadium? Meh. New training facilities? Bah. Reaching a status where the club can sign some very promising and desired talents on the market? Means nothing. Playing good football? Details, unnecessary details. Its all about getting 42 points instead of 41, or the club is clearly "going backwards" or being "no better than before"... according to some.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Regardless of the points, I'd be horrified if anyone agreed we have stood still or gone backwards. IMO we have made fantastic progress on the pitch. We may not have had the rub of the green and we know we have squandered numerous chances but overall our performances have improved immensely, no question.

Ordinarily that would result in a higher points haul and hopefully it will next season

It's the age old (on NSC) argument of points v performance. For me the league table doesn't lie after 38 games You finish where you deserve with the number of points you deserve.

We will have achieved it in a MUCH more entertaining fashion and have brought on White and Sanchez from "loaned out" to "Premier League quality" in a season. But I'd ask what the point of that was if we are going to finish 16th ish on 40 points ish every season?

We're probably two clinical finishers (a forward and a goal scoring midfielder) away from kicking on beyond that point. Those players do not come cheap and they do not come easy and they do not come without risk pof unbalancing the performances.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Yes, turned out to be pretty spot on, much to the pleasure of all of us I imagine.







Its funny, someone suggested that last week or so. Apparently there is only one way of improving - getting more points. New stadium? Meh. New training facilities? Bah. Reaching a status where the club can sign some very promising and desired talents on the market? Means nothing. Playing good football? Details, unnecessary details. Its all about getting 42 points instead of 41, or the club is clearly "going backwards" or being "no better than before"... according to some.

The stadium is 10 years old, the training facilities 7 years old and we've been in the EPL for four seasons. In the first of those we scored a similar number of goals and a similar number of points with a vastly inferior squad because, guess what, we've signed some promising and established talent. ALL that progress is in the past. Fans will be back in the stadium next season and they'll want to see home wins, not nicely polished goal posts and some new cones.

 

[andy1980]

Yes, turned out to be pretty spot on, much to the pleasure of all of us I imagine.







Its funny, someone suggested that last week or so. Apparently there is only one way of improving - getting more points. New stadium? Meh. New training facilities? Bah. Reaching a status where the club can sign some very promising and desired talents on the market? Means nothing. Playing good football? Details, unnecessary details. Its all about getting 42 points instead of 41, or the club is clearly "going backwards" or being "no better than before"... according to some.

I'm glad for it. I still have question marks over him. but I am as impressed with our 2021 form (so far) as I was disappointed with our 2020 form. The credit has to go to Potter. Hopefully we continue to improve like this.

 

[Swansman]

The stadium is 10 years old, the training facilities 7 years old and we've been in the EPL for four seasons. In the first of those we scored a similar number of goals and a similar number of points with a vastly inferior squad because, guess what, we've signed some promising and established talent. ALL that progress is in the past. Fans will be back in the stadium next season and they'll want to see home wins, not nicely polished goal posts and some new cones.

I know they are 10 / 7 years old but I used them of examples of how not every improvement of a club immediatly turns up in the league table but as you've repeatedly shown this is beyond your understanding.

 

[Richy_Seagull]

It's the age old (on NSC) argument of points v performance. For me the league table doesn't lie after 38 games You finish where you deserve with the number of points you deserve.

We will have achieved it in a MUCH more entertaining fashion and have brought on White and Sanchez from "loaned out" to "Premier League quality" in a season. But I'd ask what the point of that was if we are going to finish 16th ish on 40 points ish every season?

We're probably two clinical finishers (a forward and a goal scoring midfielder) away from kicking on beyond that point. Those players do not come cheap and they do not come easy and they do not come without risk pof unbalancing the performances.

Does the league table ever "lie" (whatever that means exactly) after 37 games? But when ticks over to 38 all the luck and everything else that is random in the game of football is suddenly forgotten?

 

[Machiavelli]

Regardless of the points, I'd be horrified if anyone agreed we have stood still or gone backwards. IMO we have made fantastic progress on the pitch. We may not have had the rub of the green and we know we have squandered numerous chances but overall our performances have improved immensely, no question.

Ordinarily that would result in a higher points haul and hopefully it will next season

I made the same point on GB's fact thread which might not turn out to be quite so factual but, as you point out, there are other things beyond points through which such an assessment can be made, which are better than a/ny singular fact.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Does the league table ever "lie" (whatever that means exactly) after 37 games? But when ticks over to 38 all the luck and everything else that is random in the game of football is suddenly forgotten?

Yes, because in a 20 team competition, that's when you've played every other side at home and away rather than, say, everyone else having played Man City twice and you only once.

 

[Hugo Rune]

It's the age old (on NSC) argument of points v performance. For me the league table doesn't lie after 38 games. You finish where you deserve with the number of points you deserve.

Does it have to be the full 38 games to ensure that the table doesn’t lie or could we knock the ‘we haven’t improved, we’re worse than last season’ mantra out the park by comparing the 1st half of the season with the 2nd half?