if you score fewer goals than your xG and concede more (as we did on Saturday) does that mean you have issues finishing chances and defending certain situations?
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[Football] Expected goals table ....
- Thread starter Pevenseagull
- Start date
I watched the Leeds Everton game with a few thoughts:-
- Marveling at the lack of midfield and defenders.
- Checking to see if it was an under 8's match.
- Fearful of Ryan in such a game.
But most importantly (despite our oh so predictable performance at Goodison)
- Pleased that the Albion can defend, better then both those teams.
(As well as miss as many 'simple' chances! )
nwgull
Well-known member
LOL, I watched the Leeds game with very similar thoughts - both Leeds' and Everton's strikers made ours look clinical!
blue-shifted
Banned
Yep, which is why Adam, Lewis and Ben don't have to shift uncomfortably in their seats when they look at that table
Unless they happen to be coughing up lazy penalties and unstoppable own goals.
blue-shifted
Banned
The weaker foot bit isn't what would make an attempt to lob the goalie by bouncing it off the turf difficult, it's the pace he was running which would make it really hard. Even a world class player like Salah would get that 1 in 10, which is why he'd never try it
That a Scouse commentator on TV channel watched by 99% Liverpool fans tried to claim this was played for isn't surprising.
blue-shifted
Banned
Some of that is inevitable over the course of a season. Defending isn't an exact science. What the stats show is that on average, opposing teams aren't being gifted more easy chances then you'd expect
Moshe Gariani
Well-known member
- Mar 10, 2005
- 12,092
The table posted IS a good way of quantifying some things that we suspect based on available information (i.e. qualitative analysis of current performances and taking into account past performance/point gathering over extended periods)...
Albion, Sheffield Utd and Man City are the three teams most significantly with fewer points than deserved so far. Reasonable to expect these three teams to gather points at an improved rate over the rest of the season and finish higher than currently placed.
Everton, Tottenham, Leicester and Newcastle have all been relatively fortunate with some of their points gained and can be expected to finish lower than currently placed,
Albion, Sheffield Utd and Man City are the three teams most significantly with fewer points than deserved so far. Reasonable to expect these three teams to gather points at an improved rate over the rest of the season and finish higher than currently placed.
Everton, Tottenham, Leicester and Newcastle have all been relatively fortunate with some of their points gained and can be expected to finish lower than currently placed,
Perkino
Well-known member
- Dec 11, 2009
- 5,988
But we have changed our formation to have 3 CB's to make us harder to score against. If we are only going to play 2 CB's then White & Webster could be the lucky winners
blue-shifted
Banned
I see it less about luck and more about doing the things (ie scoring the goals and keeping them out) that get you the points and get you up the actual league. Efficiency in both boxes in other words
Tom Hark Preston Park
Will Post For Cash
- Jul 6, 2003
- 70,314
Ryan-Dunk-Duffy worked magnificently as a unit. Three bodies thrown on the line, time after time after time. Kept us up for at least one season. Contributed a fair old number of crucial goals also. That unit was binned for no real reason at all. Been weaker at the back ever since. Oh well 
macbeth
Dismembered
not if this table is anything to go by...
https://twitter.com/DistanceCovered/status/1325810973060554755?s=19
Ryan-Dunk-Duffy worked magnificently as a unit. Kept us up for at least one season. Contributed a fair old number of crucial goals also. That unit was binned for no real reason at all. Been weaker at the back ever since. Oh well
The other week I read some post-match threads from the last spring with CH and there were endless tirades about how completely junk Dunk and Duffy had been for months, but I guess the grass is always greener on the other side.
As for "no real reason at all", its pretty laughable. You may not approve of the reasons but to say that there were none, you have to be pretty ignorant. You dont need a magnifying glass to understand why Potter thought Duffy was incompatible with his philosophy of playing out from the back, even if you dont agree with the philosophy in itself.
dejavuatbtn
Well-known member
Shoulda coulda woulda. I’d be interested in Liam Brady’s view of it!
What about when someone should have shot but didn’t? It really is a load of twaddle.
What about when someone should have shot but didn’t? It really is a load of twaddle.
D
Deleted member 2719
Guest
I like analysing, but if you were to ask any of our opposition managers about us, most would say we are a tougher side to beat and far less predictable under Potter then Hughton.
That's all I need to know at this point.
That's all I need to know at this point.
Uh_huh_him
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2011
- 10,704
What is encouraging is that Palace are about right in the table and -4 in the staying up tracker.
Farehamseagull
Solly March Fan Club
Ryan-Dunk-Duffy worked magnificently as a unit. Three bodies thrown on the line, time after time after time. Kept us up for at least one season. Contributed a fair old number of crucial goals also. That unit was binned for no real reason at all. Been weaker at the back ever since. Oh well
That's not true though.
2017/2018 - conceded 54;
2018/2019 - conceded 60;
2019/2020 - conceded 54.
This season we're averaging conceding 1.6 goals a game so that would be 60 over the season but that is from a small sample of 10 which includes four of the 'big six' so this figure will go down.
We were going backwards under Hughton with the previous defence whilst offering no threat going forward. People forget how awful we were at defending set pieces back then also. Now we create many more chances and score more goals whilst keeping it as tight or tighter than we did under Hughton.
I'm certain at the end of this season we're going to finish in our highest position, with our highest points tally and a very decent, positive goal difference.
Tom Hark Preston Park
Will Post For Cash
- Jul 6, 2003
- 70,314
Defence got weaker when they introduced BigDanBurn. Got weaker still when they introduced Webster.
Oh and furk Potter's half-bright tinpot 'philosophy' btw. He's not the messiah...
blue-shifted
Banned
Not the most convincing use of statistical evidence to back up a point.
Farehamseagull
Solly March Fan Club
No it's not ideal because the sample is too small and the nature of fixture lists means it can never be especially accurate which is why I said that.
We have conceded just 6 goals in the last 6 games though which I think is very good in today's football and especially as we played free scoring Spurs and Liverpool within those games.
I think it's noticeable that our defending has got better as the season has progressed which makes sense as the players get more used to the new system, White, Veltman and Lamptey bed in further and March continues to learn and impress in a new position for him. I also thought we defended set pieces really well on Saturday.