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[Football] Expected goals table ....

Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,295
Sweden
Defence got weaker when they introduced BigDanBurn. Got weaker still when they introduced Webster.

Oh and furk Potter's half-bright tinpot 'philosophy' btw. He's not the messiah...

Sorry for your struggle to cope with change, it must be quite exhausting. Maybe one day the "fad" of playing out from the back is over, maybe one day Hughton returns and the alleged superdefense with Ryan, Dunk and Duffy is reestablished. But I wouldnt hold my breath.
 


blue-shifted

Banned
Feb 20, 2004
7,645
a galaxy far far away
No it's not ideal because the sample is too small and the nature of fixture lists means it can never be especially accurate which is why I said that.

We have conceded just 6 goals in the last 6 games though which I think is very good in today's football and especially as we played free scoring Spurs and Liverpool within those games.

I think it's noticeable that our defending has got better as the season has progressed which makes sense as the players get more used to the new system, White, Veltman and Lamptey bed in further and March continues to learn and impress in a new position for him. I also thought we defended set pieces really well on Saturday.

But also Burnley, WBA, Palace Newcastle. Our games have been representative
 

Farehamseagull

Solly March Fan Club
Nov 22, 2007
11,015
Sarisbury Green, Southampton
But also Burnley, WBA, Palace Newcastle. Our games have been representative

Yes exactly - so if we conceded 1 a game for a whole season that would be only 38 which is fewer than any team conceded outside the top 3 last season.

Like I say, we've noticeably improved at the back as the season has gone on and if we carry on as we have in the last 6 games we'll be doing very well.
 

Tom Hark Preston Park

Will Post For Cash
Jul 6, 2003
66,209
Sorry for your struggle to cope with change, it must be quite exhausting. Maybe one day the "fad" of playing out from the back is over, maybe one day Hughton returns and the alleged superdefense with Ryan, Dunk and Duffy is reestablished. But I wouldnt hold my breath.

Won't hold me breath either for you flitting to yet another club sooner rather than later in slavish pursuit of your man-crush :wink:
 

nwgull

Members
Jul 25, 2003
12,445
Manchester
We've definitely improved since the Everton game. Up to that point we'd conceded 10 in 4. As has been pointed out, we've only conceded 6 in 6 since, and 2 of those have been highly debatable penalties. Keep that up and we'll be doing fine.
 

Stat Brother

Members
Jul 11, 2003
70,043
West west west Sussex
We've definitely improved since the Everton game. Up to that point we'd conceded 10 in 4. As has been pointed out, we've only conceded 6 in 6 since, and 2 of those have been highly debatable penalties. Keep that up and we'll be doing fine.

But that doesn't quite chime with the narrative, does it?

Nor does that fact that in those 10 games, we've played Chelsea, Spurs, Utd and Liverpool.




Oh and as an aside.
After palace play WBA, this weekend, they then go on a similar run of tough games.
 

Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,295
Sweden
Won't hold me breath either for you flitting to yet another club sooner rather than later in slavish pursuit of your man-crush :wink:

Well, we'll see. As it stands it looks like me and the people running the club are more in agreement than you and the people running the club and there is not much indicating that the end of that is in sight.

We've definitely improved since the Everton game. Up to that point we'd conceded 10 in 4. As has been pointed out, we've only conceded 6 in 6 since, and 2 of those have been highly debatable penalties. Keep that up and we'll be doing fine.

Should also be mentioned that up until that point the PL on average had the obscene average of 4 goals per game while it is now down to a more normal but still high 2,9 goals per game. I expect the average goal numbers to continue to be pretty high throughout the season and that will of course inflate numbers both in the goals scored and goals conceded columns of most teams.
 
Jul 7, 2003
11,979
tokyo
We've definitely improved since the Everton game. Up to that point we'd conceded 10 in 4. As has been pointed out, we've only conceded 6 in 6 since, and 2 of those have been highly debatable penalties. Keep that up and we'll be doing fine.

Also the last game that Alzate started, I think. I'm a pretty big fan of Alzate, especially what he brings to the team on the ball but in the first part of the season we were often wide open for counter attacks.

Our defensive record is contingent on the whole team in the same way that playing out from the back is designed to help build and create more attacking opportunities.

The reason we don't give up many chances is because we have the ball more often than the opposition. It's not necessarily down to brilliant defending form the back 3 or 4 it's the combination of keeping the ball, having a solid midfield presence in front of the defence and then good defending.

The reason,IMO, we have conceded quite a lot compared to chances given up is not necessarily down to poor goalkeeping but down to the kind of chances given up. Namely giving the ball away in front of our penalty box, defenders being out of position(whether because they were pulled out of position by the midfield being awol or just individual poor positioning) and a mildly concerning inability to deal with set plays/crosses into the box.

All of which is to say that in light of this, Alzate's last start being Everton and our improved defensive performances since then, then maybe the reason Alzate is no longer in the team is because despite his many quality contributions on the ball he wasn't offering us enough defensively.

Or I've added 2 +2 and got 5.

Not sure if this is the relevant post or thread for my post but it's been something buzzing round my head for a while now and as someone once said: better out than in.
 


Tom Hark Preston Park

Will Post For Cash
Jul 6, 2003
66,209
Well, we'll see. As it stands it looks like me and the people running the club are more in agreement than you and the people running the club and there is not much indicating that the end of that is in sight.

Should also be mentioned that up until that point the PL on average had the obscene average of 4 goals per game while it is now down to a more normal but still high 2,9 goals per game. I expect the average goal numbers to continue to be pretty high throughout the season and that will of course inflate numbers both in the goals scored and goals conceded columns of most teams.

A bit before your time, but there's a quote from one of The People Running The Club words to the effect that there's no better man for the job than Hyppiä - about three days before the club parted ways with the man
 

Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,295
Sweden
A bit before your time, but there's a quote from one of The People Running The Club words to the effect that there's no better man for the job than Hyppiä - about three days before the club parted ways with the man

Sure, but that was Hyypiäs own decision right? I dont know much about the Hyypiä era though so cant really comment too much on it. I think Potter is currently very safe in his job. Surely that can change rather quickly in football but I think most indicators are pointing upwards.
 

vagabond

Members
May 17, 2019
9,804
Brighton
Shoulda coulda woulda. I’d be interested in Liam Brady’s view of it!
What about when someone should have shot but didn’t? It really is a load of twaddle.

Given Tony Bloom is clearly a man who has had a career analysing data and stats to his advantage I would suggest he does not consider it “twaddle”.
 

Moshe Gariani

Members
Mar 10, 2005
11,870
Shoulda coulda woulda. I’d be interested in Liam Brady’s view of it!
What about when someone should have shot but didn’t? It really is a load of twaddle.
So you haven't snapped up the value around Fulham beating Leicester tonight then...?
 

pb21

Members
Apr 23, 2010
5,146
Wouldn't having a higher actual/real goals against compared to an xG against only indicate that the GK is at 'fault' rather than the defence as a whole?
 

RyFish

Members
Dec 6, 2011
253
Wouldn't having a higher actual/real goals against compared to an xG against only indicate that the GK is at 'fault' rather than the defence as a whole?

Only if the Expected Saves stat (related to the difficulty of the save rather than location of the scorer) shows his letting in more goals than he should. This could just be because against us teams have been better than average at finishing.
 


pb21

Members
Apr 23, 2010
5,146
Only if the Expected Saves stat (related to the difficulty of the save rather than location of the scorer) shows his letting in more goals than he should. This could just be because against us teams have been better than average at finishing.

Isn't xG only a measure of how likely a given attempt at goal is of being scored? Once there is an attempt it is either scored or not, and that's only down to the GK?

If so, having a higher actual/real goals against compared to an xG against isn't a reflection of the defence as a whole but only the GK?

Obviously having a high actual/real goals against or an xG against is a reflection of the defence as a whole, but not the difference. I could well have this wrong though!
 

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