[Politics] Brexit

[pastafarian]

Really looking forward to the response to this. This will be some special pleading. "But they lied too" but people don't understand the difference between predictions and outright lies. Even my dad has admitted he voted based on lies. First time he has ever admitted he was wrong. I don't expect people to admit this on an Internet forum though because this has not happen in 20 years on the internet so won't start now.

"I didn't vote for the 350 million anyway I voted about the laws"

"What laws?"

"The ones I don't like"

"Name one"

"It is just not right for us to be dictated to"

"Name one"

"That isn't the point"

"It kind of is"

"Plus our services can't cope with all the immigrants, the NHS is crumbling"

"Immigrants make up a large proportion of NHS staff"

"That's not the point"

"It is though isn't it"

And on it goes. What a time to be alive.

Actually the conversation is more like this.

I didn’t vote for the £350m anyway, I was capable of looking up the real figure which is still mouth wateringly enormous and excessive and I voted more for a principle, a return of more sovereign law making powers back to Westminster and the added accountability and ability to seek redress of grievance that comes with that, alongside ending the ridiculous state of affairs surrounding our EU borders.

“Ahhhhh but which law don’t you like…….go on name one……I dare you?”

“Oh do grow up…….are you a child?”

 

[Jim in the West]

Fair point there will likely be an initial cost in bolstering/expanding our bodies/agencies or setting up new ones but it would be a tad disappointing if this process ended up costing several Billion every year.

I'm afraid to disappoint you, but most commentators expect a permanent hit to our GDP of around 2% to 3% over the long term. There were several estimates (including the Treasury's) which were well above this. Given that our annual GDP is around £2 tn, even conservative forecasts show that we'll be around £50bn pa worse off. The OECD forecast had us (by 2030) 5% worse off - that's over £3k pa per household....and their model has us agreeing a Free Trade Agreement with the EU.

Of course, all of these "experts" could be proved wrong. However, the main thing we are sacrificing post-Brexit is Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Loads of companies invest in the UK as we are a gateway to the EU. Post Brexit we will no longer (by definition) be that gateway. So far, the experts are being proved right, as investment gradually reduces, and international businesses gradually move to the EU.

It is extremely likely that we will be MUCH poorer post Brexit - there's almost total unity on this. And the quantum will be far, far greater than a few billion.

 

[Baldseagull]

How do you know there will be money left over? In effect, hundreds of administrative bodies, monitoring groups, agencies and other organisations are outsourced to the EU....so one thing you'll lose is the economies of scale. Take the EMA for example, it will cost the UK much more to set up their own agency.....that's even if the talent exists in the uk. And this is just one of hundreds you need to arrange in the next 18 months.

I expect any deal will include participation in the EMA, but will of course require a contribution, and the writing up of a bit of EU law into UK law. This, however logical and beneficial to the UK, is not Brexit enough for JC footy Genius though. He might even prefer to die waiting for a drug that could cure him to be approved by a UK authority, than compromise on Brexit.

 

[pastafarian]

Talking of strawberries did I not read that the people who supply Wimbledon with their strawberries are having serious problems this year, as most of their European pickers have left the UK, and British workers are reluctant to step in.

Wimbledon should change its supplier then if your reading of the situation is true and there is a shortage at Wimbledon..
The reality is the rest of the country is enjoying a bumper crop thanks to a mild May(month not PM). 30% bigger yield is being picked and delivered to the supermarkets. The shelves are bursting with strawberries, prices have been falling and punnet sizes growing to match the amount that has been harvested and delivered.

 

[Jim in the West]

What democratic process are you relying on that backs your belief Brexit will be reversed?

The "will of the people"....polls are now showing 54% in favour of remain. This will grow. Once it goes beyond 60% the politicians will HAVE to take note. Plus, of course, the government will royally f*ck things up, and descend into anarchy. All the main Tory players are positioning themselves for a leadership election. It will not be pretty!

 

[pastafarian]

The "will of the people"....polls are now showing 54% in favour of remain. This will grow. Once it goes beyond 60% the politicians will HAVE to take note. Plus, of course, the government will royally f*ck things up, and descend into anarchy. All the main Tory players are positioning themselves for a leadership election. It will not be pretty!

An opinion poll is not a democratic process,i am absolutely 100% certain no opinion poll will reverse Brexit before the 2019 deadline, or even after the deadline for that matter.
The Opinion Poll Act would however be a lot of fun to watch being debated in the House, with amendments for clicks, likes and thumbs up given special consideration.

 

[daveinprague]

We got our sovereignty back. Thats all that matters ha ha

 

[Berty23]

Oh dear.Are you Warwick born,or just live there?

Born in south Devon and grew up there. My old man is a Brighton boy so I followed suit. Not sure why where I live is relevant though.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I'm afraid to disappoint you, but most commentators expect a permanent hit to our GDP of around 2% to 3% over the long term. There were several estimates (including the Treasury's) which were well above this. Given that our annual GDP is around £2 tn, even conservative forecasts show that we'll be around £50bn pa worse off. The OECD forecast had us (by 2030) 5% worse off - that's over £3k pa per household....and their model has us agreeing a Free Trade Agreement with the EU.

Of course, all of these "experts" could be proved wrong. However, the main thing we are sacrificing post-Brexit is Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Loads of companies invest in the UK as we are a gateway to the EU. Post Brexit we will no longer (by definition) be that gateway. So far, the experts are being proved right, as investment gradually reduces, and international businesses gradually move to the EU.

It is extremely likely that we will be MUCH poorer post Brexit - there's almost total unity on this. And the quantum will be far, far greater than a few billion.

"So far the experts are being proved right". You are a one ..



George Osborne: “A vote to leave would tip our economy into year-long recession with at least 500,000 UK jobs lost”

Treasury: “UK economy would fall into recession”, predicted 2016 Q3 growth between -0.1% and -1%

IMF: “Brexit would trigger recession”, predicted -0.3% GDP for Q3

OECD: Short term impact of -1.25% GDP

... a survey of the City’s leading economists, some of the highest paid brains in Britain. 71% of them predicted Britain would go into recession in 2016. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch both said that the UK’s GDP would move dramatically negative, dropping 2.5% almost immediately. The only difference of opinion within the 71% was how soon it would come.

https://order-order.com/2016/09/22/oecd-reverses-brexit-recession-forecast/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors



Still, I am sure their longer term forecasts with many more variables and uncertainties will prove more accurate ...

 

[Berty23]

Actually the conversation is more like this.

I didn’t vote for the £350m anyway, I was capable of looking up the real figure which is still mouth wateringly enormous and excessive and I voted more for a principle, a return of more sovereign law making powers back to Westminster and the added accountability and ability to seek redress of grievance that comes with that, alongside ending the ridiculous state of affairs surrounding our EU borders.

“Ahhhhh but which law don’t you like…….go on name one……I dare you?”

“Oh do grow up…….are you a child?”

Lol. We had a prime minister picked by a band of MPs (same way we get leaders of the EU) and after an election we are being run by Northern Ireland. Huzzah for that sovereignty. Is this the panacea you voted for?

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Yes, but you have to accept that he's speaking as a turncoat who has gone over to the other side, so anything he says is no more credible now than it was then.

So if, for example, a leading industrialist who had campaigned for Remain now announced that the Remain argument was based on lies, and he now felt Brexit was a fine opportunity for the country, you would refuse to listen to him on the basis that he was a turncoat?

I'm not saying that such a person is ever likely to exist, but I would like to test the consistency of your views.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Fair point there will likely be an initial cost in bolstering/expanding our bodies/agencies or setting up new ones but it would be a tad disappointing if this process ended up costing several Billion every year.

But do you, or the architects of Brexit know? Or will they just abandon these agencies under the guise of austerity? Will we have to wait until the neglect and cuts result in a child dying from lead based paint? We've already seen the Tories are happy to take their eyes of the ball with home based authorities....it will be carnage when another hundred need organising and funding. Britain will be like the Wild West.

 

[Jim in the West]

"So far the experts are being proved right". You are a one ..



George Osborne: “A vote to leave would tip our economy into year-long recession with at least 500,000 UK jobs lost”

Treasury: “UK economy would fall into recession”, predicted 2016 Q3 growth between -0.1% and -1%

IMF: “Brexit would trigger recession”, predicted -0.3% GDP for Q3

OECD: Short term impact of -1.25% GDP

... a survey of the City’s leading economists, some of the highest paid brains in Britain. 71% of them predicted Britain would go into recession in 2016. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch both said that the UK’s GDP would move dramatically negative, dropping 2.5% almost immediately. The only difference of opinion within the 71% was how soon it would come.

https://order-order.com/2016/09/22/oecd-reverses-brexit-recession-forecast/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors



Still, I am sure their longer term forecasts with many more variables and uncertainties will prove more accurate ...

What wasn't factored in was the mad credit-fuelled spending spree that most Brits have been indulging in for the last 12 months. Plus, large numbers of people frittering away their pensions (after "Pensions Freedom"). Our economy has been supported by unsustainable borrowing, which come to an end soon. It may have taken a little longer than anticipated, but the down-turn is beginning to happen. You are right to highlight that the longer term forecasts will prove more accurate, and it is those forecasts which are, indeed, beginning to be fulfilled.

 

[portslade seagull]

What wasn't factored in was the mad credit-fuelled spending spree that most Brits have been indulging in for the last 12 months. Plus, large numbers of people frittering away their pensions (after "Pensions Freedom"). Our economy has been supported by unsustainable borrowing, which come to an end soon. It may have taken a little longer than anticipated, but the down-turn is beginning to happen. You are right to highlight that the longer term forecasts will prove more accurate, and it is those forecasts which are, indeed, beginning to be fulfilled.

Admit you were wrong and stop finding excuses.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

But do you, or the architects of Brexit know? Or will they just abandon these agencies under the guise of austerity? Will we have to wait until the neglect and cuts result in a child dying from lead based paint? We've already seen the Tories are happy to take their eyes of the ball with home based authorities....it will be carnage when another hundred need organising and funding. Britain will be like the Wild West.

That's what I like about you HT .. never one to exaggerate or go overboard with hyperbole.

 

[Jim in the West]

An opinion poll is not a democratic process,i am absolutely 100% certain no opinion poll will reverse Brexit before the 2019 deadline, or even after the deadline for that matter.
The Opinion Poll Act would however be a lot of fun to watch being debated in the House, with amendments for clicks, likes and thumbs up given special consideration.

Sorry if I wasn't clear - I'm not saying that an opinion poll will reverse Brexit per se - simply that, once the results of those polls show consistently that a significant majority of the population no longer wish for Brexit, it will be political suicide to continue. I don't know exactly what will happen, but you can imagine a scenario where a parliamentary vote takes place, and a majority of MPs either vote for a second referendum, or some VERY lengthy transition period during which nothing much changes, and the next GE ends up with a clear vote to Remain. At the same time we have the instability of the Tory party, the potential for Labour to descend into chaos if Momentum get too bolshy, and Northern Ireland to explode (literally as well as metaphorically).

 

[Jim in the West]

Admit you were wrong and stop finding excuses.

Some predictions were certainly exaggerated - and I'll happily accept that they were wrong (even though I didn't make them myself). But everyone now needs to accept that, economically, we are in a very precarious position. Hard Brexit is going to make it much worse. Even David Davis realises that.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

What wasn't factored in was the mad credit-fuelled spending spree that most Brits have been indulging in for the last 12 months. Plus, large numbers of people frittering away their pensions (after "Pensions Freedom"). Our economy has been supported by unsustainable borrowing, which come to an end soon. It may have taken a little longer than anticipated, but the down-turn is beginning to happen. You are right to highlight that the longer term forecasts will prove more accurate, and it is those forecasts which are, indeed, beginning to be fulfilled.

Right so all it took to throw the forecasts off was for the public to act in a way they hadn't predicted ... yet they can accurately predict 5,10, 20 years down the line

 

[nicko31]

What wasn't factored in was the mad credit-fuelled spending spree that most Brits have been indulging in for the last 12 months. Plus, large numbers of people frittering away their pensions (after "Pensions Freedom"). Our economy has been supported by unsustainable borrowing, which come to an end soon. It may have taken a little longer than anticipated, but the down-turn is beginning to happen. You are right to highlight that the longer term forecasts will prove more accurate, and it is those forecasts which are, indeed, beginning to be fulfilled.

Please someone tell me this is fake news...

Business optimism hits second-lowest level since 2011, as service sector firms are buffeted by Brexit-related worries
UK productivity has fallen again
UK service sector growth slowed in June
Firms hit by rising costs...and struggle to find workers
UK car sales fall for third month running
Scotland avoids recession
But....the eurozone just posted its best quarter since 2011

 

[pastafarian]

Sorry if I wasn't clear - I'm not saying that an opinion poll will reverse Brexit per se - simply that, once the results of those polls show consistently that a significant majority of the population no longer wish for Brexit, it will be political suicide to continue. I don't know exactly what will happen, but you can imagine a scenario where a parliamentary vote takes place, and a majority of MPs either vote for a second referendum, or some VERY lengthy transition period during which nothing much changes, and the next GE ends up with a clear vote to Remain. At the same time we have the instability of the Tory party, the potential for Labour to descend into chaos if Momentum get too bolshy, and Northern Ireland to explode (literally as well as metaphorically).

Seeing the parliamentary process that has already taken place over the last few years from the first announcement that there would be a referendum if the tories were voted in, the commitment of both main parties to leave, the willingness of the public to get it over with,the enacting of Article 50, negotiations commening on leaving not staying, the deadline to leave and no one who is an avid remainer having any semblence of political power i cant see your scenario at all.
you should have stuck with " i dont know what exactly what will happen" or perhaps modified it to "im grabbing at straws..........really really big straws"