- Thread starter
- #21
It will be a fool who tries to predict a UK "cross" these days. The last election showed us this.
French far right National Front 'routed' in key vote
- Thread starter Herr Tubthumper
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It will be a fool who tries to predict a UK "cross" these days. The last election showed us this.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,358
i'd say looking at the voting numbers the outcome is the same, we just dont have the first round. unless you believe there is a third party that would consistently knock the Tories into the third across the country through tactical voting.
and on the subject, i was going to say well done to the French for not lurching hard right, but apparently the first round the nationalists won with the largest proportion of the popular vote. a rout appears to overstate how they attract a substantial proportion of the population.
daveinprague
New member
Well Soulman, you were are UKIP voter no? Where will you be placing your vote?
Hampster Gull
New member
- Dec 22, 2010
- 13,462
I suspect they will fragment, some back to the main parties and some to other small parties, some perhaps new. Both main parties will be slightly less liberal than they have been i suspect. Not wishing for anything Soulman, just guessing based on my reading of possible events.
- Thread starter
- #25
"His comments followed a difficult night for President François Hollande’s party, with final results showing it took just 23 percent of the vote nationwide.
That put it behind both the FN's 28 percent and the 27 percent gained by centre-right Les Républicains (formerly the UMP) and their allies."
A 1% lead over second place and with just 28% of the vote is not substantial by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, this highlights perfectly why they went for a 2-run system. Either that or coalition government model.
JC Footy Genius
Bringer of TRUTH
- Jun 9, 2015
- 10,568
Most will return to the Tory fold and I can't see any ex Labour voters attracted by UKIP returning to Corbyn's Labour as they are polls apart (literally!).
As for the FN I thought this analysis from the BBC's Hugh Schofield in Paris was interesting.
There can be no hiding that the results of the elections are a big personal blow to Marine Le Pen.
She has lost the chance to govern a region and show the world that her party is serious. She has been reminded that however strongly the FN performs, the gates of power remain tightly closed.
But in a way that suits her fine.
Because what it all means is that nothing in France has changed. The two main parties continue sharing out the goodies (in this case deliberately conniving to keep hers as well).
Meanwhile unemployment rises; terror stalks; the grim insurrectionary mood continues to spread.
Marine's prospects for power may be limited, but her appeal is as strong as ever for France's growing numbers of disgruntled and disaffected.
That French "ouf" of relief? It's also the noise you make when you get a fist in the abdomen.
- Thread starter
- #27
JC Footy Genius
Bringer of TRUTH
- Jun 9, 2015
- 10,568
The point being made was the underlying issues that have driven voters towards the FN remain. Yes the voting system helps block further electoral success but it would be extremely complacent to think this could not change.
Kuipers Supporters Club
Well-known member
Based on what data? Seeing as more people voted for Con/UKIP than Lab/Green that's a big and seemingly frivolous assertion.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,358
you dont consider 28% of the popular national vote to be substantial? not sure if you've deliberatly misunderstood that comment, the meaning or in denial. one cant ignore well over a quarter of the population supporting a particular strong way of thinking.Will see, though it will not be Labour, and contrary to what a previous poster stated that most UKIP supporters would vote Labour, i think that is very naive and incorrect.
About 56% of the population voted for left leaning parties. Simple maths.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015
daveinprague
New member
I do not expect you to. You will vote traditional Tory mate, you know it. Most of the UKIP supporters will as well.
Do you ever read my posts, how many times have i mentioned that i have NEVER voted Tory.
Kuipers Supporters Club
Well-known member
D
Deleted member 22389
Guest
Voted Labour all my life, but never ever again. There are hundreds of thousands of voters just like me.
daveinprague
New member
Do you read mine? I didnt say you had. I said you will.
daveinprague
New member
Tory vote is looking good then.
Same here, though not all my life, never vote Labour again, and yes so many ex voters will never trust them again.
Clairvoyant are you, sorry to disappoint you but i will not be voting Tory.....