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National Lottery
- Thread starter DavidRyder
- Start date
French Seagull
Active member
Care to calculate the EV
The problem is it is all about trying to win the Jackpot, and luck favouring you, because we all know 'the house wins'
The problem is also the EV changes depending on the size of a rolled over jackpot. You would probably have to wait for 26 consecutive rollovers (I believe) before we ever saw a positive EV for the Euro Millions. (which would not be allowed to happen in the rules)
The expected value model predicts that people will not play Lotto.
In practice, people do play the lottery and this suggests that the expected value model ignores other utilities that are gained from a ticket. These utilities include, firstly, the opportunity to take part in an aspect of popular culture – banter with friends and family, and speculation over numbers and near misses. Secondly, there is the ‘warm glow’ effect of having indirectly donated money to charity.
Finally, in the small scrap of paper there is the possibility of winning a life‐transforming sum of money. Referred to as ‘buying a dream’ this factor is considered by many to constitute the largest utility from playing the Lottery. Lotto players do not think rationally we dream 'it could be me' and yes I do have a ticket for Wednesday.
The problem is it is all about trying to win the Jackpot, and luck favouring you, because we all know 'the house wins'
The problem is also the EV changes depending on the size of a rolled over jackpot. You would probably have to wait for 26 consecutive rollovers (I believe) before we ever saw a positive EV for the Euro Millions. (which would not be allowed to happen in the rules)
The expected value model predicts that people will not play Lotto.
In practice, people do play the lottery and this suggests that the expected value model ignores other utilities that are gained from a ticket. These utilities include, firstly, the opportunity to take part in an aspect of popular culture – banter with friends and family, and speculation over numbers and near misses. Secondly, there is the ‘warm glow’ effect of having indirectly donated money to charity.
Finally, in the small scrap of paper there is the possibility of winning a life‐transforming sum of money. Referred to as ‘buying a dream’ this factor is considered by many to constitute the largest utility from playing the Lottery. Lotto players do not think rationally we dream 'it could be me' and yes I do have a ticket for Wednesday.
Taybha
Whalewhine
I won a fish once , the fish would have been fooked these days i'm no paying 5p for a plastic bag
Easy 10
Brain dead MUG SHEEP
It is now statistically more likely that you will be killed by your own TROUSERS than win the National Lottery. Fact.
GT49er
Well-known member
I didn't join right at the outset, but eventually I chucked in my £1 a week on the football pools and played he lottery every week instead. The day they arbitrarily introduce a 100% price hike to £2, for no good reason at all, I packed it in completely and for good.
happypig
Staring at the rude boys
He did well there, considering the National Lottery only started in 1994
OzMike
Well-known member
They do a lottery thing called Set For Life here, where the winner gets $20 000 a month for 20 years.
You only have to pick 8 numbers from 1 - 37 and the odds are 38.5 Million to 1, I don't see anybody winning at those odds.
You only have to pick 8 numbers from 1 - 37 and the odds are 38.5 Million to 1, I don't see anybody winning at those odds.
French Seagull
Active member
I can not see how that is correct?
4,000 people have become lottery millionaires since it started, have more than 4,000 people been killed by their own trousers, daft fact I think which is surely incorrect!
Easy 10
Brain dead MUG SHEEP
That was then. This is now.
French Seagull
Active member
That could be a nice prize, about £9,500 a month or £114,000 a year for 20 years would keep me happy!
I see several have won it as well!
goldstone68
New member
The way my luck is going at the moment, I've got more chance of p*ss*ng in the Queens handbag than winning the Lottery.
French Seagull
Active member
Wrong-Direction
Well-known member
- Mar 10, 2013
- 13,819
I'd pay £2 to see that
Easy 10
Brain dead MUG SHEEP
You said in the past tense, 4,000 people have become Lottery millionaires (under the 1-49 format).
Under the new format of 1-59, it is NOW statistically more likely to be killed by your own trousers than to win the jackpot.
French Seagull
Active member
okay, I still very unlikely there is any chance my trousers will kill me, very slight chance I may win the lottery,
OzMike
Well-known member
As far as I can see some of the minor prizes have been won, but no one has got the big one.
OzMike
Well-known member
I stand corrected.
After checking up I found that after 68 draws 4 people have actually won it.
So at the moment someone wins every 17 draws, that's not so bad after all, early days though as it's only been running for 10 weeks.
French Seagull
Active member
So last night the odds of winning the Euromillions last night was 1 in 116,531,800 there were two winners (one of which was in the UK) each winning £11,517,653.60 there was also a one million winner of the UK million air maker, for me it was worth a go.
Under the new format of 1-59 the odds of winning tonight are less than the Euromillions at 1 : 45,057,474 There will also be one winner of a Million in the raffle, so as it is a rollover I will give it a £2 go. Perhaps and probably just a dream.
Is it really statistically more probable that someone is statistically more likely to be killed by there own trousers? will there be more people this actually happens to than win the lottery tonight?
Anyway if you have a ticket, enjoy the dream and you never know!