[News] Nigel Farage and Reform

[Weststander]

I fear it may be closer than you think unless Reform hang themselves in the meantime. I am now in what has been a safe blue seat. Out of nowhere Reform came second last time out. The Tories are in a right state and seemingly going to stay that way. In my seat they could easily lose enough to become runners up themselves. Hence my deeply unpalatable fear of having to vote Tory next time out.

Or splits the right vote in many, many constituencies allowing LibDems & Labour in.

 

[beorhthelm]

Absolutely. I'm just countering the incorrect belief that Reform would not benefit from the FPTP system in the event that they maintain this support for another 4 years.

FPTP disadvantages parties until they hit a threshold of around 20% of the popular vote. Once they get beyond that, they start winning a greater percentage of seats.

where does this come from? under FPTP each seat is individual, there is no magic threashold. for decades Liberals got dozens of seats by having focused success in the south west and selective seats where the locals fell out with Conservatives but wouldn't vote Labour. the national % is fairly irrelevant. even better example is SNP in 2015 won 56 seat on 5%. if a party has uniform 20% nationally, they'll get next to nothing, if its focused in 100 seats they win lots of them, but not translate to national success.

 

[Hugo Rune]

This was Electoral Calculus seat predictions one month before the 2024 GE...

MRP Poll June 2024

Yup.

What a load of old bollocks the seat predictions of Electoral Calculus are. It's because many people use their poll to send a message rather than be a truthful representation of their voting intention.

The Tories got exactly 100% more seats than the EC predicted just a month before the last GE and Reform got 72% less. What does that tell us?

Stating a preference for Reform in an opinion poll or lending them your vote in a local election is a threat. A threat that most dyed in the wool Tories would never carry out in an actual election.

 

[Peteinblack]

A lot of media commentators are not paying attention to what's happening below the surface.

The majority of Reform's 'surging' support is coming from disillusioned Tories who think the Party is not Right-wing enough - who thought that Rishi Sunak was a bit of a Leftie.

To the extent that Labour is losing support, it is mainly to those who think it is not radical enough, and who are turning to the Greens or Lib Dems.

Meanwhile, the more the Tories move to the Right to outflank Reform, the more they will lose support from moderate/liberal Conservatives - in last year's general election, 23% of people who voted Tory in 2019 switched to Labour, the Lib Dems or the Greens.

The Tories were once the Party of the English middle-class, offering continuity, competence, pragmatism, and stability. They are now increasingly an authoritarian populist Party of the working-class, but mainly on the basis of anti-immigrant sentiments and Culture War nonsense - 'owning the libs'. In this transformation, they have lost the support of much of the middle class - hence Shoreham, Worthing, and Weston-super-Mare electing Labour MPs for the first time ever last July.

 

[Brian Munich]

where does this come from? under FPTP each seat is individual, there is no magic threashold. for decades Liberals got dozens of seats by having focused success in the south west and selective seats where the locals fell out with Conservatives but wouldn't vote Labour. the national % is fairly irrelevant. even better example is SNP in 2015 won 56 seat on 5%. if a party has uniform 20% nationally, they'll get next to nothing, if its focused in 100 seats they win lots of them, but not translate to national success.

The SNP are an anomaly as they only contest 57 seats, so that small popular vote is effectively concentrated. The libs do target seats very well, but even last year, when it was accepted that they did this really well, they still only got 72 seats whilst their 12.6% should have got them 82.

The 20% is a very broad estimate, I accept, and a lot depends on the vote share amongst the other 4 national parties. However, there's no doubt that there is a threshold at which all parties will benefit fro FTFP, and at 30% Reform would definitely win a higher proportion than their popular vote.

 

[Brian Munich]

Yup.

What a load of old bollocks the seat predictions of Electoral Calculus are. It's because many people use their poll to send a message rather than be a truthful representation of their voting intention.

The Tories got exactly 100% more seats than the EC predicted just a month before the last GE and Reform got 72% less. What does that tell us?

Stating a preference for Reform in an opinion poll or lending them your vote in a local election is a threat. A threat that most dyed in the wool Tories would never carry out in an actual election.

The EC prediction was based on polling with Labour getting 40% (they got 34.7%), Cons at 20% (24.4%) and Reform at 18% (14.7%). It was the average of all polling that was incorrect, not the model predicting outcome of that national vote.

 

[Brian Munich]

To the extent that Labour is losing support, it is mainly to those who think it is not radical enough, and who are turning to the Greens or Lib Dems.

Labour is down 12.1% since last year; the Libs and Greens have gained 1.8% and 2.2% respectively. That's only 4%. Where has the other 8.1% gone if it's not to the Farage black shirts?

 

[darkwolf666]

The EC prediction was based on polling with Labour getting 40% (they got 34.7%), Cons at 20% (24.4%) and Reform at 18% (14.7%). It was the average of all polling that was incorrect, not the model predicting outcome of that national vote.

That's quite funny. So it wasn't the final poll that was wrong, but the polls feeding the final poll!!!

Polls, particularly 4 years from a General Election are largely a waste of time - but then polling companies, TV News station, social media platforms, etc., etc., have to fill the void - largely with pointless nonsense!

It's a bit like the transfer rumour thread...!

 

[darkwolf666]

Labour is down 12.1% since last year; the Libs and Greens have gained 1.8% and 2.2% respectively. That's only 4%. Where has the other 8.1% gone if it's not to the Farage black shirts?

Save for Mr Punch, Labour still have the same number of MP's - at the end of the day that's what counts, until July 2029!!!

 

[Motogull]

Or splits the right vote in many, many constituencies allowing LibDems & Labour in.

Let's hope so.

they have lost the support of much of the middle class - hence Shoreham, Worthing, and Weston-super-Mare electing Labour MPs for the first time ever last July.

And Royal Tunbridge Wells to Liberal.

Oh, my MP is Helen Grant @Harry Wilson's tackle.

 

[Bodian]

Let's see what the thresholds are, then we can all celebrate their conscience.

Because nobody REALLY has THE answers, on these boards OR in the House.

It's far, far easier to tell people where they are going wrong rather than either offer sensible advice as to how things could be made better, or what THEY would ACTUALLY do.

Ultimately, Party politics will NEVER allow for things to be done in the interests of the public, only the party at the end of the day!

Yes - I agree no-one really has the answers. BUT, the point is @Is it PotG? said the above - 'let's see what the thresholds are, then we can all celebrate...'. So - I'm not asking what he thinks the 'answers' are or even about party politics, but simply at which threshold he himself would be 'happy' with. He must have a threshold in mind, to have said the above.

Unless of course, he doesn't, and isn't actually bothered - and so when the new levels are announced, he'll have the freedom to post a few more one-liners implicitly criticising the new levels / thresholds. But that would be pure trolling surely?

 

[Is it PotG?]

But that would be pure trolling surely?

I have no idea about thresholds.

Please explain the above, you're starting to sound like WZ.

'Sir, sir.......'

 

[Brian Munich]

That's quite funny. So it wasn't the final poll that was wrong, but the polls feeding the final poll!!!

Polls, particularly 4 years from a General Election are largely a waste of time - but then polling companies, TV News station, social media platforms, etc., etc., have to fill the void - largely with pointless nonsense!

It's a bit like the transfer rumour thread...!

Electoral Calculus don’t do polls so much as translate it into seats IF the polls are accurate.

All I’m trying to do is dispel the myth that Reform won’t benefit from FPTP if their vote increases as much as the polls have suggested.

 

[Bodian]

I have no idea about thresholds.

So why raise them, and directly imply there would be a level they would need to be at so people could celebrate?

Please explain the above, you're starting to sound like WZ.

'Sir, sir.......'

"Trolling is when someone posts or comments online to ‘bait’ people, which means deliberately provoking an argument or emotional reaction. In some cases they say things they don’t even believe, just to cause drama." My point is - you're making statements saying that the threshold levels are important, but now you say you have no idea about them. That sort of fits part of the definition above. Apologies if you were putting a meaningful point forward which I have missed.

Anyway - this is the Reform thread, so this discussion probably ought to have been on the Labour thread. If anywhere.

 

[Is it PotG?]

"Trolling is when someone posts or comments online to ‘bait’ people, which means deliberately provoking an argument or emotional reaction. In some cases they say things they don’t even believe, just to cause drama." My point is - you're making statements saying that the threshold levels are important, but now you say you have no idea about them. That sort of fits part of the definition above. Apologies if you were putting a meaningful point forward which I have missed.

Absolute dribble.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Anyway - this is the Reform thread, so this discussion probably ought to have been on the Labour thread. If anywhere.

I believe Mr Guinness mentioned it on this thread if you'd care to check.

 

[Bodian]

Absolute dribble.

Thanks.

 

[Bodian]

I believe Mr Guinness mentioned it on this thread if you'd care to check.

Indeed, not us!

 

[Is it PotG?]

Indeed, not us!

Sorry, I don't get your joke.

 

[Bodian]

Sorry, I don't get your joke.

Just agreeing that it wasn't you or I that took the thread off at a tangent initially.