[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[peterward]

At 17.30 evidence of military supply flights for Ukraine, from US, increasing. Probably that 50 million purchase...
Plus footage of a Ukrainian cargo plane, in Arizona, being loaded up with F16s
Plus approval of refurbished Patriot system going from Israel to Ukraine. Well worth watching all of this .

Seen those bits of info in seperate tweets, as well as the patriot system from Israel ("later this summer") there's an additional one allegedly to come from either Germany or Greece

 

[Eric the meek]

These 'tell it like it is' interviews are right up my street. This from James Ingram of Times Radio.

TLDR:

1. Is Trump a Putin puppet? No. Russia is as wary of Trump as everyone else.
2. Is May 9 in Moscow a legitimate military target? Yes. Will it happen? Maybe not. It might rally Russians around Putin.

 

[raymondo]

These 'tell it like it is' interviews are right up my street. This from James Ingram of Times Radio.

TLDR:

1. Is Trump a Putin puppet? No. Russia is as wary of Trump as everyone else.
2. Is May 9 in Moscow a legitimate military target? Yes. Will it happen? Maybe not. It might rally Russians around Putin.

That was very interesting, thanks

 

[Eric the meek]

Can someone please interpret what Trump is talking about? Is this very good news, or have I misinterpreted it?

The replies are as confused as I am.

 

[raymondo]

Can someone please interpret what Trump is talking about? Is this very good news, or have I misinterpreted it?

The replies are as confused as I am.

Without listening to the whole video I think he means: Russia will have to give up their ambition to take the whole of Ukraine. So, he means the peace plan on offer was that Russia pretty much keeps what it currently occupies...and I don't think Trump is saying differently.
But was ambiguous, for sure.

EDIT: and/or Ukraine would have lost the other 80,% if the Trumpster hadn't come along to save the day.
I guess I should read the replies

 

[GT49er]

Without listening to the whole video I think he means: Russia will have to give up their ambition to take the whole of Ukraine. So, he means the peace plan on offer was that Russia pretty much keeps what it currently occupies...and I don't think Trump is saying differently.
But was ambiguous, for sure.

That's how I saw it too. Russia would have to give up 'all Ukraine' and just accept getting the bits of Ukraine they've already got. Typical mealy mouthed confustication by Trump. Don't understand what he means? Do you think he does either?

 

[Eric the meek]

Without listening to the whole video I think he means: Russia will have to give up their ambition to take the whole of Ukraine. So, he means the peace plan on offer was that Russia pretty much keeps what it currently occupies...and I don't think Trump is saying differently.
But was ambiguous, for sure.

EDIT: and/or Ukraine would have lost the other 80,% if the Trumpster hadn't come along to save the day.
I guess I should read the replies

I am frequently guilty of wishful thinking, and am mindful of one reply which accuses Gerdes of hearing what he wants to hear. You could accuse me of the same.

Yours is the logical analysis. Based on your experience of Trump, and based on what is the most likely interpretation.

And yet.....

At the risk of being 100% wrong, I am drawn to this from Trump:

'Russia doesn't want the strip that they have now. Russia wants all of Ukraine'.

That first sentence raises a number of questions:

Is Trump signalling that he may withdraw the offer of 'that strip' to Russia?
If he now realises Russia doesn't want that strip of land, why would it remain in the peace deal? Does it render the peace deal invalid?

 

[Sirnormangall]

Without listening to the whole video I think he means: Russia will have to give up their ambition to take the whole of Ukraine. So, he means the peace plan on offer was that Russia pretty much keeps what it currently occupies...and I don't think Trump is saying differently.
But was ambiguous, for sure.

EDIT: and/or Ukraine would have lost the other 80,% if the Trumpster hadn't come along to save the day.
I guess I should read the replies

I think many of us are of the view that Russia will never give up its ambition to take the whole of Ukraine - certainly not while Putin remains in power. Russia will simply play the long game and a robust military deterrent in Europe will be needed for years to come.

 

[Sirnormangall]

Not so sure they will.

Far-right Trump ally leads first round of Romania’s rerun presidential election, partial count shows

George Simion, whose AUR party opposes military aid to Ukraine and vilifies EU leaders, will face centrist rival Crin Antonescu in run-off vote

www.theguardian.com

Yes, from what I can make out Romania banned the extreme right candidate and his place has been taken by Simion who is only far right. Unfortunately, whilst he doesn’t seem to support Russia, he doesn’t agree with sending arms to Ukraine. Sounds like another Orban

 

[Sirnormangall]

Yes, from what I can make out Romania banned the extreme right candidate and his place has been taken by Simion who is only far right. Unfortunately, whilst he doesn’t seem to support Russia, he doesn’t agree with sending arms to Ukraine. Sounds like another Orban

….apologies - in that post it should have read “only” far right!

 

[Triggaaar]

EDIT: and/or Ukraine would have lost the other 80,% if the Trumpster hadn't come along to save the day.
I guess I should read the replies

Apparently the official language of Britain would now be Russian if it wasn't for Trump, so we owe him a lot of thanks too.

 

[crookie]

Sketchy reports of a new, small Ukrainian offensive in Kursk. That'll please Putin !!!

 

[raymondo]

That's how I saw it too. Russia would have to give up 'all Ukraine' and just accept getting the bits of Ukraine they've already got. Typical mealy mouthed confustication by Trump. Don't understand what he means? Do you think he does either?

"confustication" ,. Then later...he can confirm or deny any possible meaning that suits him on that day.

 

[raymondo]

I am frequently guilty of wishful thinking, and am mindful of one reply which accuses Gerdes of hearing what he wants to hear. You could accuse me of the same.

Yours is the logical analysis. Based on your experience of Trump, and based on what is the most likely interpretation.

And yet.....

At the risk of being 100% wrong, I am drawn to this from Trump:

'Russia doesn't want the strip that they have now. Russia wants all of Ukraine'.

That first sentence raises a number of questions:

Is Trump signalling that he may withdraw the offer of 'that strip' to Russia?
If he now realises Russia doesn't want that strip of land, why would it remain in the peace deal? Does it render the peace deal invalid?

You may be right that Trump is signalling that as an obscure pressure point to Putin.
But I think he could signal something different ten minutes from now: scattergun approach, throw out comments and watch the reactions

 

[raymondo]

First few minutes of video:
- fires in Moscow as Russia shoots down Ukrainian drones heading for infrastructure targets
- Ukraine hits electronics factory in Bryansk

 

[raymondo]

Sketchy reports of a new, small Ukrainian offensive in Kursk. That'll please Putin !!!

Yes, Davydov says that Ukraine did very well breaking through heavily fortified Russian positions - but resistance is heavy.

 

[peterward]

Well this is a bit of a disaster for Ukraine from Germany. Bloody useless pr1cks in useless Olaf Scholz party double crossing and sticking in the knife?

Germany's Merz falls short of majority in vote for chancellor

Conservative Friedrich Merz unexpectedly falls short of the numbers needed to become chancellor.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Eric the meek]

You may be right that Trump is signalling that as an obscure pressure point to Putin.
But I think he could signal something different ten minutes from now: scattergun approach, throw out comments and watch the reactions

I think you've nailed it. He is prepared to say anything to get the result he wants.

He is presenting the scenario that Russia could end up with nothing, in the hope of persuading them to a ceasefire. Whether he actually means it, is an entirely different matter.

If true, the fact remains that whatever happens next, he is now making a veiled threat to Russia. This is a new development.

 

[raymondo]

Well this is a bit of a disaster for Ukraine from Germany. Bloody useless pr1cks in useless Olaf Scholz party double crossing and sticking in the knife?

Germany's Merz falls short of majority in vote for chancellor

Conservative Friedrich Merz unexpectedly falls short of the numbers needed to become chancellor.

www.bbc.co.uk

Well that's a big shame . My head's full of US politicking so I'm going to struggle to understand Germany's. Does that mean the SPD want one of their own to be leader? or they're just bitter at losing? (then don't go into a coalition!!!) or they just don't want Merz? maybe Merz was too vocal/decisive for them...but that's what Germany needs after Scholz.

 

[raymondo]

I think you've nailed it. He is prepared to say anything to get the result he wants.

He is presenting the scenario that Russia could end up with nothing, in the hope of persuading them to a ceasefire. Whether he actually means it, is an entirely different matter.

If true, the fact remains that whatever happens next, he is now making a veiled threat to Russia. This is a new development.

I too grasp at wishful thinking, hoping Trump will 'understand and see sense', so I look for clues in what he says, but I don't think he works with a plan. I think a lot of it is just random, emotional decisions/blah from him, then he sees what happens. There's no embarrassment from him if he backtracks.