albionalex
Well-known member
I should also add that it's one thing to score it but he could have at least got it on target.
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[Albion] Matt O Riley [26/08/24 - sings on a 5-year deal]
- Thread starter Seasider78
- Start date
I should also add that it's one thing to score it but he could have at least got it on target.
More a general point than a Matt O'Riley point, but that header was only given an xG of 0.23.
View attachment 199975
As fans I think we tend to over-estimate the quality of chances, at least relative to the xG models. Most of us thought we could/should have been 4 or 5 up at half-time - me included - but that's not supported by any xG models.
I agree with you on the one he hit the post with - it felt at the time as if he'd shot to the wrong side of the goal. That effort had an xG of 0.04, so a 1-in-25 chance of scoring.
Minteh's far post wrong foot attempt was 0.09 so, again, a long way from a "he must score that" opportunity.
Brighton 2 - 2 Leicester (April 12 2025) | EPL | 2024/2025 | xG | Understat.com
Brighton 2 - 2 Leicester. Check out detailed player statistic, goals, assists, key passes, xG, shot map, xGplot.understat.com
xG is overrated, as explained in Ian Graham’s book. It’s the aggregate xG of every attempt in a game, so a team making a load of unlikely to score attempts from angles and distance can rack up a decent looking xG.
Big chances created is better.
Inside club analysts have access to even better data.
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sussex_guy2k2
Well-known member
- Jun 6, 2014
- 4,877
I tend to like the “I would’ve been disappointed if I’d missed that” rule.More a general point than a Matt O'Riley point, but that header was only given an xG of 0.23.
View attachment 199975
As fans I think we tend to over-estimate the quality of chances, at least relative to the xG models. Most of us thought we could/should have been 4 or 5 up at half-time - me included - but that's not supported by any xG models.
I agree with you on the one he hit the post with - it felt at the time as if he'd shot to the wrong side of the goal. That effort had an xG of 0.04, so a 1-in-25 chance of scoring.
Minteh's far post wrong foot attempt was 0.09 so, again, a long way from a "he must score that" opportunity.
Brighton 2 - 2 Leicester (April 12 2025) | EPL | 2024/2025 | xG | Understat.com
Brighton 2 - 2 Leicester. Check out detailed player statistic, goals, assists, key passes, xG, shot map, xGplot.
Minteh’s early chance (not his second cross/shot one), MORs header and at least one of Adingra’s chances all fall into that category. And we scored none of them.
It’s only overrated by some people who look at it in isolation…….there’s a mountain of other data to use in conjunction with xg - the club analysts don’t really have ‘better’ data (the vast majority is universally available at the elite level as pretty much all clubs all use the same platform), just a lot more data which is used in support of their other work. It’s the interpretation and use of the data that‘s key.
‘Big chance creation’ has drifted into a bit of obscurity as Xg models have become more sophisticated
Definitely watched a different game to me then yesterday, for the reasons highlighted in my earlier post.
Agree re Palace though and as you say a run of games may help, needs to play a similar role to the Palace one though for me.
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albionalex
Well-known member
Adingra has been here for 3 seasons, this is O'Rileys first.
GT49er
Well-known member
Definitely time to shift O'Riley out ASAP. Apart from making half of NSC behave as if they're dyslexic, he's making them look as thick as mince as Millwall and Leeds supporters, not to mention Palarse hoody-clad ultras.
Obviously, six letters (plus an apostrophe) is too demanding for some, so he's just got to go. It's getting embarrassing now.
Mackenzie
Old Brightonian
O’Really?
To be honest I thought they were as poor as each other (I know we discussed it).)
Both were sloppy, both missed chances.
Both had good moments
Both got in great positions.
I think MOR needs to play further forward, as he simply offers little support in the middle and Ayari got through a mountain of work, as he was often covering MOR.
GT49er
Well-known member
Yep. Sadly, it's a necessity.
And punters look at it as a stat in isolation.
Adingra was terrible in the second half, poor passing, looked lazy and lightweight, should have been subbed off earlier than he did.
I thought MOR looked like he wanted to play all the time he was on, also thought he was subbed off too early.
Washie
Well-known member
O'reilly came off and suddenly Leicester sliced through our cm at will.
GT49er
Well-known member
All down to Houghton, I expect.
(N.B. I do realise dyslexia is a serious issue for some; Brighton's O'Reilly is 64 this year, BTW)
Wasn’t the turning point 9 minutes before that after their triple substitution?
Gormless reliance on xG is why Curbs at Wet Sham kept picking the oaf Marlon Harewood ahead of Bobby Zamora.
Nobby Cybergoat
Well-known member
- Jul 19, 2021
- 9,840
Spot on.
Also see the rule of thumb "would my mates be ripping it out of me in the pub after the game if I'd missed from there in a Sunday game".
I reckon at least 4 fit into the category from yesterday
Thought they were doing that at will before then, hence the subs.
MOR was blowing, thought that was probably the right decision.
Wardy's twin
Well-known member
- Oct 21, 2014
- 9,171
I would have left him on and taken Wellbeck off as MOR at least got into some great positions then put another midfield on.To be honest I thought they were as poor as each other (I know we discussed it).)
Both were sloppy, both missed chances.
Both had good moments
Both got in great positions.
I think MOR needs to play further forward, as he simply offers little support in the middle and Ayari got through a mountain of work, as he was often covering MOR.