[Albion] Matt O Riley [26/08/24 - sings on a 5-year deal]
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Uh_huh_him
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2011
- 14,000
Yeah agreed.
Probably our most persistent threat, and the type of player we need to have in our line up.
tigertim68
Well-known member
- Sep 3, 2012
- 2,908
Could of scored a couple yesterday, but he did ok yesterday,
NSC viewer
Member
- Apr 26, 2022
- 33
I thought he was our best player going forward. A few good through balls including the one for Minteh who decided to cross instead of shoot. Should have had a penalty just before the one he did get for a blatant shirt pull. We looked much worse after he went off and Gomez never got into the game. Hardly remember us having an attack after O’Riley went off
In a game where most of our players couldn’t hit the target to save their lives, he looked a more likely scorer than anyone
Did he?
One of the misses of the season with the header.
The post effort whilst good, was interesting as the other side of the goal was wide open, and he only had a player to curl it round.
Missed 1 on 1 in second half
Even the penalty incident he should have hit first time.
Fair to say he got in excellent positions, but was too wasteful for me.
More a general point than a Matt O'Riley point, but that header was only given an xG of 0.23.
As fans I think we tend to over-estimate the quality of chances, at least relative to the xG models. Most of us thought we could/should have been 4 or 5 up at half-time - me included - but that's not supported by any xG models.
I agree with you on the one he hit the post with - it felt at the time as if he'd shot to the wrong side of the goal. That effort had an xG of 0.04, so a 1-in-25 chance of scoring.
Minteh's far post wrong foot attempt was 0.09 so, again, a long way from a "he must score that" opportunity.
Brighton 2 - 2 Leicester (April 12 2025) | EPL | 2024/2025 | xG | Understat.com
Brighton 2 - 2 Leicester. Check out detailed player statistic, goals, assists, key passes, xG, shot map, xGplot.
understat.com
I was comparing him to the others. Unlike Minteh, Adingra and others he at least gave the impression that he knew what a barn door was
Interesting (it really is)More a general point than a Matt O'Riley point, but that header was only given an xG of 0.23.
View attachment 199975
As fans I think we tend to over-estimate the quality of chances, at least relative to the xG models. Most of us thought we could/should have been 4 or 5 up at half-time - me included - but that's not supported by any xG models.
I agree with you on the one he hit the post with - it felt at the time as if he'd shot to the wrong side of the goal. That effort had an xG of 0.04, so a 1-in-25 chance of scoring.
Minteh's far post wrong foot attempt was 0.09 so, again, a long way from a "he must score that".
Brighton 2 - 2 Leicester (April 12 2025) | EPL | 2024/2025 | xG | Understat.com
Brighton 2 - 2 Leicester. Check out detailed player statistic, goals, assists, key passes, xG, shot map, xGplot.
But I’m one of those non-believers in terms of xG.
If you’re unmarked relatively central to the goal, you have to score.
That was an easy chance.
The Minteh chance, if he goes with his (apparently untrusted) right foot, he would have had a better chance IMO.
albionalex
Well-known member
More a general point than a Matt O'Riley point, but that header was only given an xG of 0.23.
View attachment 199975
As fans I think we tend to over-estimate the quality of chances, at least relative to the xG models. Most of us thought we could/should have been 4 or 5 up at half-time - me included - but that's not supported by any xG models.
I agree with you on the one he hit the post with - it felt at the time as if he'd shot to the wrong side of the goal. That effort had an xG of 0.04, so a 1-in-25 chance of scoring.
Minteh's far post wrong foot attempt was 0.09 so, again, a long way from a "he must score that" opportunity.
Brighton 2 - 2 Leicester (April 12 2025) | EPL | 2024/2025 | xG | Understat.com
Brighton 2 - 2 Leicester. Check out detailed player statistic, goals, assists, key passes, xG, shot map, xGplot.
0.23 is actually pretty high as xG goes. If we want to be pushing for Europe, our players need to be scoring those types of chances.
Doug-ees-evil
Well-known member
- Nov 18, 2011
- 226
Happened right in front of us. Couldn’t believe he thought the left foot was the better option. Welbeck sticks that in 9 times out of 10. Was the most frustrating miss of the afternoon for our lot in SW1.
I thought at the time the Minteh one was difficult as he was quite wide of the post. Although being able to take it with the other foot may have helped. The diving header looked a really great chance. Once O’Riley got to it, you’d have thought he’d hit the target. I suppose XG tells us that a lot of players don’t.More a general point than a Matt O'Riley point, but that header was only given an xG of 0.23.
View attachment 199975
As fans I think we tend to over-estimate the quality of chances, at least relative to the xG models. Most of us thought we could/should have been 4 or 5 up at half-time - me included - but that's not supported by any xG models.
I agree with you on the one he hit the post with - it felt at the time as if he'd shot to the wrong side of the goal. That effort had an xG of 0.04, so a 1-in-25 chance of scoring.
Minteh's far post wrong foot attempt was 0.09 so, again, a long way from a "he must score that" opportunity.
Brighton 2 - 2 Leicester (April 12 2025) | EPL | 2024/2025 | xG | Understat.com
Brighton 2 - 2 Leicester. Check out detailed player statistic, goals, assists, key passes, xG, shot map, xGplot.
I like him anyway. Has always popped up in good positions. Could be a bit stronger but his main issue seems to be he hasn’t been able to have a run in the team, which a run in the team should solve.
But it’s statistically modelled…..score more than one in four of comparable chances and you’re overachieving
banjo
GOSBTS
Merson thought he was our best player. Good enough me. 
I thought taking him off for Gomez made us worse, Gomez for Ayari maybe but not O'Reilly. ( As was Solly for Minteh and not Adingra...) I thought O'Reilly was excellent against Palace as well, it's a real positive...amongst a very disappointing week.
Machiavelli
Well-known member
I thought he was our best player yesterday and he was good against Palace too. He might just get an extended run over the last 10 games of the season, and this is a decent enough sample from which to judge him.
albionalex
Well-known member
It is but it doesn't take into account the player. You would expect Salah to score a 0.23 xG chance more than Billy Paynter.
Nobby Cybergoat
Well-known member
- Jul 19, 2021
- 9,840
Which is kind of where XG falls apart as a useful measure.
A similar example is that had the chance fell to Minteh's favourite foot, he'd have been about 3 times more likely to put it in, but it would have the same XG
Don’t think so - the xg for the chance takes into account it was to his wrong foot (at least it does in the more sophisticated models)