[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

I'm beginning to wonder if Trump really wants Ukraine to sign the minerals deal. He is making it so onerous on Ukraine, that it's almost as if he wants them to reject it.

 

[raymondo]

Apologies for the change of subject (I'm not a Russian, honest), but this may be something.

Kadyrov is reported to be trying to move his assets and maybe his family out of Russia.

As a result (?) he has had a difference of opinion with Putin. Hmm.

I think he'd get better health treatment, and a basement apartment, in Istanbul for example.

 

[raymondo]

I'm beginning to wonder if Trump really wants Ukraine to sign the minerals deal. He is making it so onerous on Ukraine, that it's almost as if he wants them to reject it.

It feels like that - looking for a reason to say 'Ukraine doesn't want peace, doesn't want an alliance with us, doesn't want to repay it's debts...' etc etc etc

 

[Eric the meek]

It feels like that - looking for a reason to say 'Ukraine doesn't want peace, doesn't want an alliance with us, doesn't want to repay it's debts...' etc etc etc

He may want Ukraine off his desk, and leave it up to its own devices, or with Europe's help.

He may feel he has bigger fish to fry.

Just me thinking aloud.

I'm off out now - back later.

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

He may want Ukraine off his desk, and leave it up to its own devices, or with Europe's help.

He may feel he has bigger fish to fry.

Just me thinking aloud.

I'm off out now - back later.

You didn't ask if any of us want anything!

 

[Sirnormangall]

It feels like that - looking for a reason to say 'Ukraine doesn't want peace, doesn't want an alliance with us, doesn't want to repay it's debts...' etc etc etc

And if that happens I hope the terms of the deal are made public so that we can make our own judgment (without the help of Trump’s PR machine) as to who is being unreasonable

 

[GoldstoneVintage]

Exactly. The US is saying they’ve already paid their share in aid since 2022. This is purely about money for them, and lots of it, the greedy immoral pricks.

Yep.

Someone needs to point out that one of the richest countries in the world is bleating about being ripped off by free trade, having spent the last 80 years aggressively promoting free trade around the globe.

Don't get me wrong, there are lots of poor people in the US and that's because they've been consistently screwed by the kinds of people currently running their country, who they voted for!

 

[Sirnormangall]

Apologies for the change of subject (I'm not a Russian, honest), but this may be something.

Kadyrov is reported to be trying to move his assets and maybe his family out of Russia.

As a result (?) he has had a difference of opinion with Putin. Hmm.

Another rat deserting a sinking ship

 

[Triggaaar]

IIUC that military aid is the remainder of that agreed under the Biden administration.

Yes I think so, but at least it's still being sent. If the US were Russian partners without limits, they wouldn't be sending it.

 

[Triggaaar]

Just tell the US to f*ck off after the current agreed military supplies dry up.
Extortion without guarantees. Europe or someone needs to call this out as extortion. Maybe Carney will.

I think Ukraine needs to keep pretending to be happy with what the US have supplied, and the UK/EU should be complaining about the deal, pointing out that it's absolute nonsense. That way the message is sent with Ukraine being the messenger.

 

[rogersix]

Why should it be either of those options?

Responsible governments (whatever flavour) should have strategies baked in to their overall risk management frameworks for most global/local events.

If the UK Government strategy is to be a leading global military power with capacity to resist another major power it cannot do that credibly without a corresponding industrial strategy which must include the ability to manufacture steel independently.

This is 1.01 stuff, it’s not nuance. As it is we have had successive Government’s standing by whilst the country’s industrial capacity shrinks. If that is because (say) net zero trumps defence capability then that is the decision the Government has decided to take.

So if we have given up the Government should say so.

It's real life, so we are muddling through. I would have thought that was obvious

 

[Sirnormangall]

I got a quick glimpse of a rare interview yesterday with Patruschev (long term confidante of Putin). I can’t provide a link but to paraphrase his comments: Russia is pleased with the approach of Trump towards Putin but is aware that not everyone in the US supports Trump. So regime change in less than 4 years could bring about a different US /Russia relationship.

Putin no doubt has this at the back of his mind in all his dealings with the Trump team. He won’t trust the US to be able to bring lasting peace. And no one in the west (other than Trump) trusts Russia. Can’t see any ceasefire lasting

 

[raymondo]

Yes I think so, but at least it's still being sent. If the US were Russian partners without limits, they wouldn't be sending it.

Yeah I know - my annoyance is an emotional reaction to all the aggressive, bs, stupid, antagonistic statements coming out of Trump, Vance, Witkoff etc etc. I'm sure Ukraine will be more diplomatic than I feel today.

 

[raymondo]

I think Ukraine needs to keep pretending to be happy with what the US have supplied, and the UK/EU should be complaining about the deal, pointing out that it's absolute nonsense. That way the message is sent with Ukraine being the messenger.

You could join the diplomatic corps this week

 

[raymondo]

I got a quick glimpse of a rare interview yesterday with Patruschev (long term confidante of Putin). I can’t provide a link but to paraphrase his comments: Russia is pleased with the approach of Trump towards Putin but is aware that not everyone in the US supports Trump. So regime change in less than 4 years could bring about a different US /Russia relationship.

Putin no doubt has this at the back of his mind in all his dealings with the Trump team. He won’t trust the US to be able to bring lasting peace. And no one in the west (other than Trump) trusts Russia. Can’t see any ceasefire lasting

I like the 'regime change' comment re the US ... feels about right at the moment.

 

[Triggaaar]

I got a quick glimpse of a rare interview yesterday with Patruschev (long term confidante of Putin). I can’t provide a link but to paraphrase his comments: Russia is pleased with the approach of Trump towards Putin but is aware that not everyone in the US supports Trump. So regime change in less than 4 years could bring about a different US /Russia relationship.

Makes sense.

Putin no doubt has this at the back of his mind in all his dealings with the Trump team. He won’t trust the US to be able to bring lasting peace.

Putin doesn't want lasting peace, but if he did and a peace was agreed now with Ukraine and Trump onside, then a new government in the US in 4 years' time is hardly going to say 'to hell with this peace, let's have more war'.

And no one in the west (other than Trump) trusts Russia. Can’t see any ceasefire lasting

A ceasefire won't last, but not because Trump has a maximum of 4 years.

 

[Triggaaar]

Yeah I know - my annoyance is an emotional reaction to all the aggressive, bs, stupid, antagonistic statements coming out of Trump, Vance, Witkoff etc etc. I'm sure Ukraine will be more diplomatic than I feel today.

You could join the diplomatic corps this week

I've never been accused of being a diplomat, but I think I could probably give some tips to Ukraine right now, who've (very understandably) had enough of US BS.

 

[sparkie]

Apologies for the change of subject (I'm not a Russian, honest), but this may be something.

Kadyrov is reported to be trying to move his assets and maybe his family out of Russia.

As a result (?) he has had a difference of opinion with Putin. Hmm.

Interesting.

I'm starting to think that when Kadyrov goes there could well be civil war within Chechnya.... which could spread to other regions.... and the whole house of cards could come crashing down.

 

[rogersix]

We don't have to defend Ukraine alone so there's nothing wrong with importing steel from the likes of Germany, Spain and the Netherlands. Even the US has to rely on Taiwan to produce semiconductors for their weapons, it doesn't suddenly make US unable to defend itself.




This has nothing to do with the war between Ukraine and Russia. If the whole of the EU suddenly decided to stop supporting Ukraine (which is the opposite to what's happening), then Ukraine are going to have problems regardless of the UK's steel production. Your points are insane.




The UK wouldn't be fighting alone, and the EU dwarves Russia from and industrial point of view. The days of Russia being a military power are also in the past. They've had to withdraw from Syria and can't defend themselves from Ukraine. If you were being genuine with your posts you'd be pointing out that Russia is in huge trouble because realistically it cannot compete with the rest of Europe.




We don't need to re-establish an old status, we just need to do enough to stop Russia trying to rebuild their empire. What's this got to do with steel? Can you provide a source that states that the UK can't provide military assistance to anyone unless they produce their own steel?


Putin's plan all along was to take Ukraine quickly and easily (3 days) and parade the streets of Kyiv to rapturous applause from the adoring public. Had that have happened, Europe and the US wouldn't have intervened, because what could we do if Ukraine was ok with it all? But Putin's plan failed within a month. Ukraine put up huge resistance and pushed Russia back out of most of the territory they'd taken, and Ukraine have shown that they'll never surrender. Putin knows full well that he'd have no chance in a war against the rest of Europe, so his plan is to get what he can now and rely on the West not attacking him to take the land back (he'll be repeating threats that the occupied land is now part of Russia and any incursion will lead to nuclear war etc).

Bloody well played trig, I simply haven't got the patience!

 

[cunning fergus]

It's real life, so we are muddling through. I would have thought that was obvious

You have a lower bar on your expectations of government standards to me. I’m not sure there is another issue any more serious to the nation state than war, but each to their own.

As it stands we have “muddled through” all the while we were happy to outsource our defence to the US.

So the time to muddle through is done, and now hard headed choices are required. If this country’s defence is a priority then it requires a sensible industrial strategy that includes steel production.

The alternative is more political theatre which is lapped up by some of the children, not the adults.

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