[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

I was thinking more like... to the Trump administration: We'll accept the ceasefire/minerals deal/ insert fave here... when we have ten more Patriot/or equivalent plus unlimited Patriot missiles to defend our cities and energy infrastructure.
I know, just a whim.

I see what you mean.

I was trying to be the chess player in Mark the economist's video, but with limited success.

 

[rogersix]

It seems the goal of the Republican party is to ruin their education system such that the public are too stupid to realise they're being screwed over. So we have a government who are serving the rich and screwing over the poor, but the poor have voted for them because they think they're on the same side

When the US get passed this shit show, they could do with reforming their constitution to prevent it happening again.

So could we!

 

[SouthSaxon]

.I'm not sure of the value of the victory parade to Russia, and therefore the value to Ukraine in stopping/interrupting it.

It’s one of their main public holidays I believe, disrupting it would be symbolically…let’s go with “significant”.

The President traditionally makes a speech in Red Square. A drone dropping into his lap would also be…significant.

 

[Eric the meek]

Ukrainian red lines wouldn't affect the battlefield, it would just delay any ceasefire agreement. That in itself is a good thing, but the danger is that Ukraine get blamed for the lack of ceasefire sooner than they might have otherwise, and US help ends sooner than it would have.

There's a fair amount of opinion that Russia will agree to some sort of ceasefire before the victory parade on 9th May. If this is simply to stop the threat of Ukrainian drones overhead, then it would have to be a full ceasefire, so nothing to do with the Black Sea ceasefire currently being proposed.

I'm not sure of the value of the victory parade to Russia, and therefore the value to Ukraine in stopping/interrupting it.

Some good points.

I hadn't heard the talk of a ceasefire by Russia before the 9th May victory parade, but it makes sense. If Putin wants a full ceasefire before then, he will need to stop being so trigger happy. The cynic in me thinks he will only do that if he absolutely has to.

 

[raymondo]

I see what you mean.

I was trying to be the chess player in Mark the economist's video, but with limited success.

Your move might still be better - lots of random stuff recently.

 

[Eric the meek]

Your move might still be better - lots of random stuff recently.

How about this for random - something I certainly didn't see coming.

 

[Triggaaar]

It’s one of their main public holidays I believe

The main one I think

disrupting it would be symbolically…let’s go with “significant”.

Yes, but so what? Does it help Ukraine win the war in any way?

The President traditionally makes a speech in Red Square. A drone dropping into his lap would also be…significant.

If there was any danger of Ukrainian drones, Russia would use a Putin double.

I'm not sure if attacking the parade would help Ukraine, or put the public in Russia against Ukraine. I don't see how it would help them.

 

[Triggaaar]

So could we!

Are you being facetious? I think comparing the issues we've ever had with our government to what's happening in the US makes light of their issues. It's like saying replying to 'Russia invaded Ukraine' with 'Ukraine hasn't had an election'.

 

[SouthSaxon]

The main one I think



Yes, but so what? Does it help Ukraine win the war in any way?




If there was any danger of Ukrainian drones, Russia would use a Putin double.

I'm not sure if attacking the parade would help Ukraine, or put the public in Russia against Ukraine. I don't see how it would help them.

Yeah, which is why I chose the word significant carefully, I appreciate it might not help Ukraine.

Apparently, at last year’s parade, there were drone jammers everywhere. Surely it’ll be the same again this year.

 

[Triggaaar]

Some good points.

Well thank you sir

I hadn't heard the talk of a ceasefire by Russia before the 9th May victory parade, but it makes sense. If Putin wants a full ceasefire before then, he will need to stop being so trigger happy. The cynic in me thinks he will only do that if he absolutely has to.

I've certainly heard Jake Broe suggest it (not sure if proving a source is breaking protocol ).Whether it's a good guess or not I don't know.

One theory is:
Russia agrees to ceasefire - well done Trump, you're a jenius
Russia holds victory parade - dear Russian citizens, we've stopped the Nazis again, yay us!
Russia breaks ceasefire
Russia and Trump claim that Ukraine broke the ceasefire
Russia continues war and Trump withdraws all support for Ukraine

The truth has no relevance to Putin or Trump, which is why I feel that Ukraine and Europe need a different way to get Trump on side, and that way is making it clear to him that Russia will lose, because Trump doesn't want to back a loser.

 

[raymondo]

How about this for random - something I certainly didn't see coming.

Good . But a reprieve of unknown length: two years, months, minutes?

 

[SouthSaxon]

How about this for random - something I certainly didn't see coming.

Not necessarily a good thing. Europe was talking about stepping in.

American funding equals American influence. I’d guess they’ll try to exert editorial control to reflect US foreign policy.

 

[Triggaaar]

Yeah, which is why I chose the word significant carefully, I appreciate it might not help Ukraine.

But that's the entire point. If it doesn't help Ukraine it's a non-starter.

Apparently, at last year’s parade, there were drone jammers everywhere. Surely it’ll be the same again this year.

I wonder how well they can be circumvented with spools of fibre optic cable behind them, as is sometimes used on the frontline?

 

[Eric the meek]

Good . But a reprieve of unknown length: two years, months, minutes?

It's really odd. Trump is obviously on a cost-cutting exercise with a bonfire of the 'aid' stuff, so why this? And why now? Why the volte-face?

Something must have happened to have caused this? Or is this Trump doing what Trump does?

(No need to answer if you don't want to - I'm just talking to the clouds).

 

[Triggaaar]

Not necessarily a good thing. Europe was talking about stepping in.

American funding equals American influence. I’d guess they’ll try to exert editorial control to reflect US foreign policy.

In which case let's hope that Europe offers to replace the funding if the US start doing that.

 

[SouthSaxon]

But that's the entire point. If it doesn't help Ukraine it's a non-starter.

Well, your original comment started with “I’m not sure the value of the victory parade to Russia”. I answered on that basis but perhaps I misinterpreted.

 

[Triggaaar]

Well, your original comment started with “I’m not sure the value of the victory parade to Russia”. I answered on that basis but perhaps I misinterpreted.

So there's talk of Putin wanting a ceasefire for the parade, and I'm just questioning how much difference it makes, because I'm not sure what the point of Ukraine attacking it would be anyway.

 

[raymondo]

Wow

Edit: seems it was drowning... vehicle went into a bog. Bad oversight if that's the case

 

[raymondo]

 

[raymondo]

Not necessarily a good thing. Europe was talking about stepping in.

American funding equals American influence. I’d guess they’ll try to exert editorial control to reflect US foreign policy.

Good point... probably a word from Musk into Trump's ear