[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

Interesting piece on the armoured fighting vehicles that US and allies could soon be sending to Ukraine. Not Tanks, but can still be very effective

 

[raymondo]

BBC2 doc on just now. As they shadowed Ukraine’s special forces during their successful Kherson campaign.

Thank you, I'll catch that later

 

[raymondo]

Nice one, your holiness , you are becoming as culpable as Putin.

 

[Binney on acid]

Such a magnanimous gesture ! This will no doubt increase Putin's chances of winning the Nobel peace prize.

 

[raymondo]

BBC2 doc on just now. As they shadowed Ukraine’s special forces during their successful Kherson campaign.

@Weststander I've just watched the documentary. Very interesting, and quite moving to see the Ukrainians' stoicism and bravery up close. Also a great insight into the realities (and imperfections) of warfare on a very long and dispersed front line.
Many Ukrainian professional civilians (e.g. IT workers, engineers, teachers...) have volunteered, whereas the similar types in Russia have been queueing up to leave their country. Hopefully this works to Ukraine's advantage.
Given it was June...it was interesting to hear 'Hummer' reference peace discussions disdainfully... they have clearly been off the table for a while now.

Anyway, a big thank you for the heads up on this documentary , and I can recommend it.

 

[A1X]

Nice one, your holiness , you are becoming as culpable as Putin.

I for one am shocked that a senior figure in the church has poor judgement. Shocked.

 

[PILTDOWN MAN]

I for one am shocked that a senior figure in the church has poor judgement. Shocked.

Really the church is littered with such figures.

 

[GT49er]

Nice one, your holiness , you are becoming as culpable as Putin.

"You carry on with the war, and we'll carry on buggering choirboys .............. deal, Vlad old chap?"

 

[The Clamp]

Ukraine tells Putin to shove his ceasefire up his arse.

Ukraine rejects Putin's Christmas truce - BBC News

The 36-hour Orthodox Christmas ceasefire is "a cover" to stop the Ukrainian advance, Zelensky says.

www.bbc.com

 

[Mellotron]

Ukrainian spy chief Kyrylo Budanov states that Putin is seriously ill.

"I am sure Putin has cancer and will die soon" - big words from the Chief of Intelligence.

Speculation about Putin's health has been ongoing for several years. The 70-year-old Russian leader has been rumoured to be suffering from cancer, Parkinson's Disease and numerous other ailments.

'We think it's cancer,' Budanov said.

'We know it from human sources' that are close to Putin, he added.
Budanov was also asked what he thought would happen following Putin's death, whether someone from within the Kremlin would take over and if the war in Ukraine would continue.

He responded saying he expected that there would be 'a replacement and transfer of power', suggesting that this would be to one of Putin's cronies.

'This war should be ended before [Putin] is dying,' Budanov added.

Telegram channel General SVR, which purports to have a number of insider sources in the Kremlin, said Putin's doctors recently noted a 'significant deterioration in his health' and recommended that he step away from any public appearances so he can rest.

The Telegram channel also reported that Putin now gets tired very quickly.

He is also prone to 'frequent bouts of dizziness and headaches', as well as 'clouding of consciousness', it added.

The reports of Putin's poor health have been supported by the cancellation of a number of planned trips and public engagements.

Just last week, on December 28, Putin pulled out of a planned trip to Pskov, a city near the Estonian border. The cancellation was officially blamed on 'unfavourable flying conditions' but weather forecasts suggested the skies were clear.

A visit to Russia's biggest tank plant in Nizhny Tagil, in the Ural mountains was also shelved. Even the usual appearance at an end of year meeting of his government ministers was cancelled.

Putin also refused to proceed with his traditional December press conference, which typically sees the president speak for up to four hours and field questions from journalists and viewers. Even Putin's beloved end-of-year ice-hockey game was cancelled.

 

[The Clamp]

Ukrainian spy chief Kyrylo Budanov states that Putin is seriously ill.

"I am sure Putin has cancer and will die soon" - big words from the Chief of Intelligence.

May be true. But this story has been floated a few times in various forms since February last year. More likely a morale boosting bit of propaganda. Would be interesting if true, though.

 

[peterward]

Could it be that the US would be happy to keep Russia engaged and slowly wear them down economically despite the fighting continuing for longer than any of us would want.

Russia aren't an economic rival to the US, and they're no longer a military rival either, so there's no need for the US to do that. The sooner Ukraine win this war, the better for the US.

You're both right. Militarily Russia cannot win, also nigh on impossible to fully subjugate and rule an entire nation who hate you.

But the bigger political risks will come in moving too quickly despite that being the best economic outcome.

Putin and Russia have long used nuclear threats as a bluff to scare and divide, most can see through this, that doesn't mean its impossible for that to happen though. And people must also realise there's a large rabid nationalist chauvinist % in the Russian population who believe in empire and Russian exceptionslism.

If the US and NATO went all in for a quick military defeat (something they could do), that's more likely to elicit a crazy counter response like nuclear........ it's also easier to frame Russian setback Internally as being by NATO etc, which only further enhances the anti western pro nationalist propaganda and leaves Russia with more of its financial resource and more of its military industrial resource. It would end the conflict temporarily but all that hate and chauvinism would only grow and be stoked further.


The death by a thousand cuts method is far better and less risky. Russians get used to military reverses and losses being the norm, they're starved economically and there's a continued attrition of sovereign wealth and military hardware, they simply cannot fight on indefinitely.....and with each month's body bags Internal grumbling and pressure on Putin magnifies.

Nato has spent 50B (chicken feed with annual defense budgets) and for that has degraded Russian military by over 50%. That's a great investment!

This is best scenario imho where Russia loses militarily (inevitable) but also the imperial nationalist clique realise they have lost to Ukraine and Russian society then turn on Putin and each other.

That's the only way to future security. End of Russian military hard power and societal change. Neither comes from a massive NATO/US knockout punch.

 

[Mellotron]

That's the only way to future security. End of Russian military hard power and societal change. Neither comes from a massive NATO/US knockout punch.

100%. It's the only way.

 

[raymondo]

You're both right. Militarily Russia cannot win, also nigh on impossible to fully subjugate and rule an entire nation who hate you.

But the bigger political risks will come in moving too quickly despite that being the best economic outcome.

Putin and Russia have long used nuclear threats as a bluff to scare and divide, most can see through this, that doesn't mean its impossible for that to happen though. And people must also realise there's a large rabid nationalist chauvinist % in the Russian population who believe in empire and Russian exceptionslism.

If the US and NATO went all in for a quick military defeat (something they could do), that's more likely to elicit a crazy counter response like nuclear........ it's also easier to frame Russian setback Internally as being by NATO etc, which only further enhances the anti western pro nationalist propaganda and leaves Russia with more of its financial resource and more of its military industrial resource. It would end the conflict temporarily but all that hate and chauvinism would only grow and be stoked further.


The death by a thousand cuts method is far better and less risky. Russians get used to military reverses and losses being the norm, they're starved economically and there's a continued attrition of sovereign wealth and military hardware, they simply cannot fight on indefinitely.....and with each month's body bags Internal grumbling and pressure on Putin magnifies.

Nato has spent 50B (chicken feed with annual defense budgets) and for that has degraded Russian military by over 50%. That's a great investment!

This is best scenario imho where Russia loses militarily (inevitable) but also the imperial nationalist clique realise they have lost to Ukraine and Russian society then turn on Putin and each other.

That's the only way to future security. End of Russian military hard power and societal change. Neither comes from a massive NATO/US knockout punch.

Yes, well balanced post, and I think you're right. I might PM you about something, hope that's ok...

 

[Mellotron]

May be true. But this story has been floated a few times in various forms since February last year. More likely a morale boosting bit of propaganda. Would be interesting if true, though.

I would agree, however the final part about numerous recent events being cancelled does make me wonder. Also if Putin wasn't unwell, you think he'd want to make a big show of that given what we know of him. I don't see it as morale-boosting either if it turns out to continually be untrue - it would have the opposite effect.

 

[Weststander]

@Weststander I've just watched the documentary. Very interesting, and quite moving to see the Ukrainians' stoicism and bravery up close. Also a great insight into the realities (and imperfections) of warfare on a very long and dispersed front line.
Many Ukrainian professional civilians (e.g. IT workers, engineers, teachers...) have volunteered, whereas the similar types in Russia have been queueing up to leave their country. Hopefully this works to Ukraine's advantage.
Given it was June...it was interesting to hear 'Hummer' reference peace discussions disdainfully... they have clearly been off the table for a while now.

Anyway, a big thank you for the heads up on this documentary , and I can recommend it.

Lots of good, new news on military hardware and technology that's now with Ukraine or on its way. France, the US and finally Germany really helping in a big way.

Also a story of how 15,000 Ukrainians were saved.

On the Telegraph website, unfortunately behind a paywall.

 

[Eric the meek]

You're both right. Militarily Russia cannot win, also nigh on impossible to fully subjugate and rule an entire nation who hate you.

But the bigger political risks will come in moving too quickly despite that being the best economic outcome.

Putin and Russia have long used nuclear threats as a bluff to scare and divide, most can see through this, that doesn't mean its impossible for that to happen though. And people must also realise there's a large rabid nationalist chauvinist % in the Russian population who believe in empire and Russian exceptionslism.

If the US and NATO went all in for a quick military defeat (something they could do), that's more likely to elicit a crazy counter response like nuclear........ it's also easier to frame Russian setback Internally as being by NATO etc, which only further enhances the anti western pro nationalist propaganda and leaves Russia with more of its financial resource and more of its military industrial resource. It would end the conflict temporarily but all that hate and chauvinism would only grow and be stoked further.


The death by a thousand cuts method is far better and less risky. Russians get used to military reverses and losses being the norm, they're starved economically and there's a continued attrition of sovereign wealth and military hardware, they simply cannot fight on indefinitely.....and with each month's body bags Internal grumbling and pressure on Putin magnifies.

Nato has spent 50B (chicken feed with annual defense budgets) and for that has degraded Russian military by over 50%. That's a great investment!

This is best scenario imho where Russia loses militarily (inevitable) but also the imperial nationalist clique realise they have lost to Ukraine and Russian society then turn on Putin and each other.

That's the only way to future security. End of Russian military hard power and societal change. Neither comes from a massive NATO/US knockout punch.

An excellent, considered post. Thank you for taking the time and effort to set it out.

I would add that the death by a thousand cuts method also helps to preserve western unity. Because the west is carrying out the war at arms length, it means there is much less chance of western military personnel being killed. This helps to ensure the constant flow of arms to Ukraine, with minimal objection from western electorates.

 

[raymondo]

Lots of good, new news on military hardware and technology that's now with Ukraine or on its way. France, the US and finally Germany really helping in a big way.

Also a story of how 15,000 Ukrainians were saved.

On the Telegraph website, unfortunately behind a paywall.

Yes, the hardware provision is being stepped up bit by bit .
I often listen to the Ukraine-The Latest podcast, and that's excellent, so I'll take a look at the website too, thanks.

 

[A1X]

I would agree, however the final part about numerous recent events being cancelled does make me wonder. Also if Putin wasn't unwell, you think he'd want to make a big show of that given what we know of him. I don't see it as morale-boosting either if it turns out to continually be untrue - it would have the opposite effect.

Certainly Putin trying to assuage any "concerns" over his health might well have visited his troops for the Russian Orthodox Christmas, in much the way Zelensky has been back and forth. Suggests in turn that he's not able to easily leave Moscow for any length of time, which also suggests maybe that's because he's being treated for something.

 

[peterward]

Yes, well balanced post, and I think you're right. I might PM you about something, hope that's ok...

Yes ofc