Robinjakarta
Well-known member
It was a major warning shot. Then came the Profumo affair. Quite a story in itself.
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[Politics] Lib Dems Win North Shropshire By-Election
- Thread starter Dick Head
- Start date
It was a major warning shot. Then came the Profumo affair. Quite a story in itself.
Raleigh Chopper
New member
Not compared to the 12,032 lunatics that still think that Johnson and his corrupt cronies are still fit and proper to run this country.
I really hope she has both parents and a partner eligible to vote just for a really super-awkward Christmas dinner.
Candidates have to have nomination forms signed by 10 electors from the constituency. So, at least eight of them failed to vote for her. That's a damning verdict
- Jan 3, 2012
- 16,701
Coalition works? Rubbish! Just look at German…….. oh!
If we had proportional representation and coalition governments, I am positive we would be in a far better state than we are now in every way, nullifying the extreme regardless of which side it is coming from.
PR would be great, but might be too big a leap to take in one go. The first step in improving the system, IMO, is to bring in preferential voting. Instead of a X in one box, you're just asking people to number all the boxes in order of preference. Solves the problem of a split vote (on either side of politics) being too easily defeated if the other side is unified, as the preference counting will (eventually) re-unify the split vote behind one candidate.
A democratic system that gives (warning: heavily simplified example ahead) a seat to someone from "Party on the right" with 40% when you've got someone from "Party on the left" on 35% and another from "alternative party on the left" on 25% is not a democratic system at all.
A democratic system that gives (warning: heavily simplified example ahead) a seat to someone from "Party on the right" with 40% when you've got someone from "Party on the left" on 35% and another from "alternative party on the left" on 25% is not a democratic system at all.
D
Deleted member 2719
Guest
Really surprised that so many are getting so excited by a midterm by-election.
Desperate scenes.
Desperate scenes.
Really surprised that so many are getting so excited by a midterm by-election.
Desperate scenes.
Because it's unusual?
Really surprised that so many are getting so excited by a midterm by-election.
Desperate scenes.
Huh? Really?
In summary: this goes beyond the normal run-of-the-mill "swing against government in a by-election":
1. The size of the swing is seismic
2. This was not a seat that played to the Lib Dem strengths - big base of leave voters
3. This result offers proof to voters on the left that voting tactically can work
4. Tories have lost a super-safe seat that they've held almost exclusively since the party was created
Could go on. Yes, it's a by-election, and no it won't be predictive of the next GE. But equally, it's not something that the Tories or Tory supports can ignore. This is a big, big, big warning shot.
D
Deleted member 2719
Guest
I get it's unusual, but it happens. With 3 years to run it means very little, if it was 3 months to run I would understand the excitement.
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Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Even if it triggers Johnson being removed as PM? Is that 'run of the mill' too?
nwgull
Well-known member
It's 2 years and 5 months at the most if we're being picky.
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
It is rare for a seat that has been Tory for almost 200 years to change especially with a swing of 34%. Very rare.
There are possibly two more by-elections in the offing, as the MP for Windsor is facing bankruptcy and the MP for Wakefield on trial in March for allegedly sexually assaulting a 15 year old boy.
HH Brighton
Well-known member
- Jul 25, 2003
- 1,518
Really surprised that so many are getting so excited by a midterm by-election.
Desperate scenes.
The error of peoples ways in voting for this clown and his party seems to be hitting home...................apart from the most stupid and greedy of society.
With 2 years and 5 months until the next election, Johnson's rivals for the job will be looking at the best time to strike from hereon in.
D
Deleted member 2719
Guest
I agree some lead has flown over Boris head.
We await to see the results of the report and whether he was attached to any of it. This media steriod attack on him has clearly been believed before the trial has even ended.
If he Is involved he may hang on on a bit longer, it all depends to what degree he was involved.
The by-election won't trigger it, only facts on what his involvement was might trigger it.
The election was a trial by media, before the real trial had even finished, madness, but people like hang on every word of the media, I just prefer the facts.
Think you'll find even after the report comes out, that he's lost a lot of support in the public that he won't get back. Not on the basis of whether he was involved or not, but on the basis that we clearly can't trust anything he says - the number of denials (and continuing denials) of any wrongdoing, when it's clear that wrong has been done (even if he wasn't directly involved) is what's sinking him. It's also the fact that "partygate" has come hot on the heals of "piggate" and the events that caused this by-election to be needed in the first place. And then there's also the flat renovation stuff coming back around, and Arcuri is back in the news as well. And the broken promise on rail investment. There's a whole host of stories that are helping develop the narrative that Boris cannot be trusted and that he sees himself as above the rules that he expects the rest of us to follow (cf repeatedly removing mask when he should have it on). It's not going to blow over when the Simon Case report comes back (apart from anything else, even if it exonerates Boris there's the easy counter-argument that Case isn't fully independent). Let's not forget there's the Covid inquiry to come next year, and I'm pretty sure we've not heard the end of the "VIP Fast Lane" covid-contracts scandal yet either.
It's not any one thing that's caused this massive blow out for the Tories - it's the sum of a whole host of what individually would have been "shrug it off and carry on" stories. The sum is much bigger than any of the individual parts would suggest, and it's offered up to the opposition parties an attack line that (if they don't stuff it up) will continue to carry weight as long as Boris is PM (and probably for quite some time after).